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Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #31 by osforlife » August 1st, 2013, 6:14 pm

I'm worried about the impending position player free agents we could potentially lose. Basically our whole 2013 starting lineup is eligible for free agency in the next two years, along with other complementary players, with virtually one questionable impact bat in the minors.

After the 2013 season:
1. Nate McLouth
2. Brian Roberts
3. Alexi Casilla
4. Wilson Betemit

After the 2014 season:
1. Nick Markakis
2. JJ Hardy

After the 2015 season:
1. Matt Wieters
2. Chris Davis
3. Steve Pearce
4. Nolan Reimold
5. Taylor Teagarden
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #32 by Old Sneakers » August 1st, 2013, 10:24 pm

It's a good discussion to have. Sadly though it's every year we have it. I think this is all a command/control issue for most of our troubled list of young arms.

Gotta throw strikes
Gotta command the strike zone
Paint corners but don't nibble too much
The Fastball is the best pitch in baseball
A pitch without movement is going to get smacked

I've seen some ordinary pitchers do well in MLB. Not true #1 or #2 types. But players that are able to keep pitch counts reasonable through six innings. I've thought for sometime now that between Bowie and Baltimore there is a chasm named Norfolk. I won't say the staff there doesn't work very hard at giving good instruction. However, young arms do seem somewhat unprepared when they get to Baltimore and the adjustment(s) period is far too long.

I do not think Rick Adair is the issue. I think a huge part of this is rushing minor league players through the system. Hopefully the Norris trade slows that down for a few. Frankly I do not want to see Gausman or Wright in Baltimore until late next season. Why? I'm tired of the Baltimore to Norfolk express. I would rather the team overpay veteran arms with incentive laden contracts than risk more prospects out of immediate need.

Tillman for a full season (second half of 2012 and first half of 2013) has been exactly what you hoped for. As for Chen, he tired greatly down the stretch last year. Let's hope his injury earlier in the season keeps his arm fresh for this stretch. Right now you add Feldman, Norris and Gonzalez to the list of SP and you have our rotation at present. But for how long?

In other threads we discuss the payroll now and it's potential state a few years from now. This team is still sorting out it's starting pitching and nothing matters until that area is well sorted. Ownership wants a winner now. Most of us agree it's not talented enough to manage that. Sooner or later the team will have to invest money, time and patience in it's own plan. I do not think the owner or front office is willing to do so at present. I won't be blaming Rick Adair or any other coach for that.

(OK getting off my soap box now)
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #33 by ofahn » August 2nd, 2013, 2:04 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:I've thought for sometime now that between Bowie and Baltimore there is a chasm named Norfolk. I won't say the staff there doesn't work very hard at giving good instruction. However, young arms do seem somewhat unprepared when they get to Baltimore and the adjustment(s) period is far too long.

First, I want to say that IMO it’s not fair to blame the staff at Norfolk for the train wreck that has been our pitching prospects because we didn’t have a legitimate player development system until DD came aboard after the 2011 season; so, it’s really not fair to judge the current crop of SP failures by the current system.

Kevin Gausman didn’t have a single inning of time at AAA before he was rushed to Baltimore this year, and had only accumulated a total of 61.1 total professional innings before he threw his first ML pitch. Now he’s back at AAA trying to learn how to get ML hitters out.

Of the pre DD period Brian Matusz had 113 minor league innings in 2009 of which only 46.1 were at AA. He didn’t see AAA until 2011, after he had crashed and burned.

Jake Arrieta had a total of 164.2 innings at AAA before he was promoted in 2010. After he crashed and burned at the ML level he went back to AAA and was never the same.

Zach Britton had a total of 66.1 innings at AAA before he was promoted to Baltimore out of Spring Training in 2011.

Chris Tillman had a total of 96.2 innings at Norfolk in 2009 before he was promoted. His next 200 or so innings at AAA during the 2010 and 2011 season showed a steady decline in results and it wasn’t until Rick Peterson and Mike Griffin went to work on him last year that he finally started to figure things out. From “The Calvary” he’s the only one that has been able to recover from being rushed and make an extended ML impact so far.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #34 by Old Sneakers » August 2nd, 2013, 4:58 pm

Nah Ofahn wanted us to read his post 5 times :lol:

But in regards to rushing prospects from Bowie to Baltimore. This is why I am somewhat willing to overpay veteran pitchers to hold the rotation needs in check. As much as I like Chris Davis at 1B, I think if it's going to take several Brinks trucks to keep him. I would ultimately say deal him and get workhorse types in return.

It's like we are spinning our wheels instead of gaining ground in regards to cultivating SP. Sure Gausman can become a very good one. But isn't his service time already underway? Same with Bundy though we won't see him pitch in the minors until late next season. I really do not want to go through this again with Mike Wright and Edwardo Rodriguez. I'm sure I get on everyone's nerves repeating my thoughts over and over again. However, these prospects need to have really sharp control and command the strike zone when they reach the majors. You can dispel any myths regarding Bowie being the proving grounds for the ML club.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #35 by osforlife » August 2nd, 2013, 6:15 pm

You're on point Old Sneakers, keep preaching it. I'm not sure when management will figure out that they need to be patient with their young pitchers. Screw the scouts that say these guys are ready. They are always wrong. Kevin Gausman pitched 61 innings in the minors. He threw six in Aberdeen, zero in Delmarva, nine in Frederick, 45 in Bowie and he's ready? Yeah right. Brian Matusz was rushed, Chris Tillman was rushed, Zach Britton was rushed, and Kevin Gausman was rushed. I would absolutely love if the Orioles had each pitcher spend a year, or very close to it, at every affiliate. But you know what will happen. Wright and Rodriguez will get promoted to Baltimore 20 innings into their Norfolk career, struggle, and spend the next two years shuffling between Baltimore and Norfolk.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #36 by ofahn » August 2nd, 2013, 6:53 pm

osforlife wrote:I would absolutely love if the Orioles had each pitcher spend a year, or very close to it, at every affiliate.

You know, like the Rays do; and they seem to know how to develop pitching.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #37 by Seafordeagles » August 2nd, 2013, 8:24 pm

Unless you are a major talent like David Price who spent just a little over a year in the minor leagues.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #38 by osforlife » August 3rd, 2013, 11:09 am

Seafordeagles wrote:Unless you are a major talent like David Price who spent just a little over a year in the minor leagues.

Out of the list of Rays’ pitchers who have been drafted and developed by the Rays in recent years, David Price has been the only exception. Look at the minor league record of Alex Cobb, James Shields, Jason Hammel, Alex Colome, Jeremy Hellickson, and Wade Davis. Jeff Niemann and Matt Moore basically follow the same concept too. I’m not saying the Rays implemented this system, or follow it with complete obedience; they are just the team that uses it the most. Coincidentally, they are also the team that has the best development of pitchers.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #39 by dan72 » August 3rd, 2013, 11:30 am

I agree oldsneekers, i am ok with paying for arms simply based upon our history of not being able to develop anything since Mussina. Do the math, there is roughly 15 real aces, and maybe another 25 or so real good quality starters in all of mlb, so the pool of quality pitchers is shallow to begin with. That problem has gotten worse since expansion in my opinion. The big market teams have 1-3 of those arms ( with the Rays an A's) being the exception. So that leaves some mid market and small market teams with none of the aces or secondary aces.
I think Buck and DD are working to improve our development processes, however the damage is done and several high profile draft picks are ruined. My fear is that Buck and DD wont be here long enough to see this turn around all the way through, that is both DD and Bucks history...... outfielders and secondbasemen are common...., ace pitchers are rare so if I could play GM, I would focus my attention on pitching, pitching and more pitching.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #40 by Rising O's » August 3rd, 2013, 12:56 pm

In the potential age of non-steriod tainted baseball, you keep a player like Chris Davis because their impact offensively is going to be that much greater.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #41 by ofahn » August 3rd, 2013, 2:54 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:Unless you are a major talent like David Price who spent just a little over a year in the minor leagues.

Thank you for picking the #1 draft choice as the exception that makes the rule.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #42 by ofahn » August 3rd, 2013, 2:54 pm

osforlife wrote:Out of the list of Rays’ pitchers who have been drafted and developed by the Rays in recent years, David Price has been the only exception. Look at the minor league record of Alex Cobb, James Shields, Jason Hammel, Alex Colome, Jeremy Hellickson, and Wade Davis. Jeff Niemann and Matt Moore basically follow the same concept too. I’m not saying the Rays implemented this system, or follow it with complete obedience; they are just the team that uses it the most. Coincidentally, they are also the team that has the best development of pitchers.

POINTS!
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #43 by ofahn » August 3rd, 2013, 2:56 pm

dan72 wrote:My fear is that Buck and DD wont be here long enough to see this turn around all the way

FYI - they're both now signed through 2018.
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #44 by ofahn » August 3rd, 2013, 3:02 pm

Rising O's wrote:In the potential age of non-steriod tainted baseball, you keep a player like Chris Davis because their impact offensively is going to be that much greater.

Just a reminder that it takes BOTH sides to work out an extension.

Davis has made himself into a complete hitter and above average defender at 1B. IMO that puts him a step above Prince Fielder who got a a NINE year contract at about 25M per year. He knows what the Yankees have paid for that kind of talent and what the Red Sox might pay for it. Why would he sign a reasonable extension here when some other team would almost certainly offer him STUPID money?
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Re: Orioles Trade Hoes To Astros For Bud Norris

PostPost #45 by osforlife » August 3rd, 2013, 4:02 pm

I would consider trading one of our position player center pieces for a huge haul of prospects to restock our farm system. We have many impending free agents, with practically no minor league players to replace them. Free agency is expensive. If we were to trade one of Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, or Adam Jones, we'd be able to replace these free agents. Adam Jones already has a long-term, although modest contract. But it would still be difficult to trade. Wieters and Davis are the most logical trade candidates. I'd favor Chris Davis, after such a monster year. Don't get me wrong, Chris Davis has mad power, but in the last ten years, only one player has had a slugging percentage higher than Davis' current .684; Barry Bonds. Only one other player has come close to Davis' .684; Albert Pujols, perhaps the greatest hitter in the 21st century. Even for Davis it would be hard to repeat such a number. He has transformed into such a great on base threat too, pushing his trade value even higher. Perhaps the Indians, Red Sox, Rangers, and/or Pirates would be interested in Davis. The Orioles could make the prospect package around a near-MLB ready corner infielders. I'm just thinking aloud.
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