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This is not a playoff team.

Re: This is not a playoff team.

PostPost #46 by Dons0's » July 24th, 2013, 10:51 pm

This team just has to keep building. The O's are at the point where they are a good solid team. But not sell the farm this season or next to win now. If we keep selling all the farm pieces, then 5 years down the road we will be a team who is 18 games out by All-Star break.

Sign Feldman for a 2-3 year deal before the beginning of ST. That way we will have a pretty solid pitching staff. I say 2 at least because I highly doubt he would sign a 1 year deal. The bats will keep developing with Davis/Jones/Machado/Urrutia. Roberts has at least a season or two of high level baseball.

The issue with this team is that it relies on the HR ball to much. This team struggles mightily to knock in runs with base hits or doubles. It seems that if this team does not homer, they can only score 3 runs a game.

That is just the way it is when Angelos pockets all the money. The Orioles are a "small market" team? No, they can spend with other contenders, maybe not as much, but more than what they have spent throughout the years.
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Re: This is not a playoff team.

PostPost #47 by dan72 » July 25th, 2013, 6:27 am

I think that Urrutia is in over his head a bit. I would prefer to see a proven hitter in that role. Other than that, I think the team is pretty solid.
As it has been said before, there is to many undisciplined hitters on this team. While the departure of Reynolds and the maturity of Davis has improved the team, we still swing and miss to much.
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Re: This is not a playoff team.

PostPost #48 by osforlife » August 29th, 2013, 5:42 pm

This team is so frustrating. I feel like they blow a lead every night. I literally cannot watch them anymore. I check the score like every half hour and look at the box score but that's all I can do. I'm not going to make any knee jerk reactions and say something like Baltimore has no shot at making the playoffs. There is still a month left in the season and the O's are 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. That's practically picking up one game a week. Teams have caught up to a gap far worse than 4.5 games. All it takes is one little winning streak. Give me a 5/6, 5/7, 7/8, 8/10, or some streak like that. It does seem like with every loss my morality sinks lower and lower. But baseball's a funny game. Just when you think your season is over, a streak comes along. September has yet to be played. I'd give up the world if I could see/hear another playoff crowd in Baltimore. Don't lose hope Baltimore...
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Re: This is not a playoff team.

PostPost #49 by ofahn » September 3rd, 2013, 2:09 pm

Dons0's wrote:Sign Feldman for a 2-3 year deal before the beginning of ST.

It would probably take two years at 22M or three years at 30M to do that and I don't see where that would fit into the budget. We would have move salaries like Hardy's and/or Jim Johnson's to fit a deal like that for Feldman into our budget. The way this ownership pinches pennies I am skeptical they would be willing to approve that kind of contract.
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Re: This is not a playoff team.

PostPost #50 by ofahn » September 3rd, 2013, 2:10 pm

osforlife wrote:This team is so frustrating. I feel like they blow a lead every night.

It all comes down to pitching and we don't have as much of it as we need.
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Re: This is not a playoff team.

PostPost #51 by osforlife » September 3rd, 2013, 5:36 pm

ofahn wrote:It all comes down to pitching and we don't have as much of it as we need.

I disagree. I understand Baltimore's starters are ranked badly, but I think that was mostly just the inability of the front office to acquire more depth. Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, and/or Kevin Gausman should have never been given the opportunity to start consecutive games. The Orioles came into Spring Training with four major league starting pitchers and it really showed. Our back end was already weak, and then Chen got injured to create a snowball. But now, after the acquisitions of Bud Norris and Scott Feldman, and the healthiness of Chen, Baltimore's starters are very solid. There is no clear ace in my mind, but no clear weak link either. I would say all of them are of about the same middle-of-the-rotation caliber. Plus, Hammel is on his way back and he is due for progression. IMO, he will provide a huge boost, either out of the bullpen or in the rotation if somebody gets hurt.

The bullpen is also average-to-below-average, but could be better if Showalter managed the relief pitchers better. If Jim Johnson was in middle relief, there would be next to none talk concerning him, just as there is hardly any talk about Patton or Matusz. He'd just be a regular, common, average 5th/6th/maybe 7th inning guy. I think we'll soon be feeling the impact of Hammel, Gausman, and K-Rod out of the pen.

The O's are two games of being a playoff team. They wouldn't be this close without Feldman and/or Norris IMO, but at this point, Baltimore has the pitching to be a playoff team.
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Re: This is not a playoff team.

PostPost #52 by ofahn » September 3rd, 2013, 7:26 pm

osforlife wrote:If Jim Johnson was in middle relief, there would be next to none talk concerning him, just as there is hardly any talk about Patton or Matusz. He'd just be a regular, common, average 5th/6th/maybe 7th inning guy.

I value Jim Johnson as a first rate closer. That being said he has been HORRIBLY abused this year. Buck ran him out there to finish game after game where we had a three run lead. I understand that it's TECHNICALLY a save situation, but Buck knew that Johnson had faltered at the end of last season because he was overworked and should have been more sensitive to that this year.

Instead, this team has been managed from ownership down with one goal in mind - SELL TICKETS! Just before the All Star break JJ was about ten saves ahead of every other closer in the game. Just for argument's sake let's take those ten games and split half of them to O'Day and the other half to Tommy Hunter. Then, let's say that each blows a save and we lose one of those games. Now, compare that against the six or so games we've lost since July 1st because Johnson has been over worked. Take those five games from the loss column and put them in the win column and where would we be in the standings?

I'm glad that Angelos has given DD and Buck contracts through 2018, but I'm beginning to believe that his price for that stability was to WIN NOW so they could SELL TICKETS regardless of the cost.
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Re: This is not a playoff team.

PostPost #53 by osforlife » September 20th, 2013, 6:50 pm

ofahn wrote:I value Jim Johnson as a first rate closer. That being said he has been HORRIBLY abused this year. Buck ran him out there to finish game after game where we had a three run lead. I understand that it's TECHNICALLY a save situation, but Buck knew that Johnson had faltered at the end of last season because he was overworked and should have been more sensitive to that this year.

Instead, this team has been managed from ownership down with one goal in mind - SELL TICKETS! Just before the All Star break JJ was about ten saves ahead of every other closer in the game. Just for argument's sake let's take those ten games and split half of them to O'Day and the other half to Tommy Hunter. Then, let's say that each blows a save and we lose one of those games. Now, compare that against the six or so games we've lost since July 1st because Johnson has been over worked. Take those five games from the loss column and put them in the win column and where would we be in the standings?

I'm glad that Angelos has given DD and Buck contracts through 2018, but I'm beginning to believe that his price for that stability was to WIN NOW so they could SELL TICKETS regardless of the cost.

I think I underestimated Jim Johnson a bit, as I was probably feeling frustration for all of his blown saves. JJ is an above-average relief pitcher, and I shouldn't have said he is anything less than that.

-He repeatedly gets an ERA below 3.00
Johnson'a ERA has historically outperformed his FIP/xFIP the majority of the time. This is a trait some pitchers can contain.
-He has a predisposed talent for BABIP success, so a BABIP near the high .200's isn't ordinary.

That being said,
-a .255 BABIP is a little extreme, and substantial regression was expected.
-I haven't officially developed an opinion on the whole closer/bullpen debate, but Johnson is a genuinely solid relief pitcher
-again, relief pitchers, even closers who provide a "perfect" season (no blown saves) aren't valuable at all, as they only pitch approximately 65 innings.

Also, maybe Johnson was overused, maybe he wasn't. Was there any news regarding Johnson's arm, or any apologies from Buck for relief abuse? He was on-track for more innings than usual relievers, but some pitchers are just horses, and deliver excessive amounts of innings year after year.

Furthermore, I don't think fans buy tickets to witness saves. I think they buy tickets to witness wins.
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