ranking the college arms

[docjj]

So, if I understand the scouts and professionals correctly, the ranking of college arms is now as follows:

Gerritt Cole
Jed Bradley
Danny Hultzen
Sonny Gray
Taylor Jungmann
Matt Purke
Trevor Bauer


Would the O's consider a guy like Bradley? He's tough to hit. He's a lefty, polished, good tools, great frame at 6'4 225, and might be nearer the Big Leagues than others...

[allstar1579]

I'm no where near as high on Bradley as some others, just never have been. Mine would go Cole>>>>>Gray, Hultzen, Jungmann>>>>everyone else. It's still early though, HS season is JUST starting now, which is why i'd take Law's rankings with a grain of salt. People think because of his list that some of those people have made huge jumps, when it really isn't the case. The HS kids haven't done ONE thing to improve or reduce their draft standing yet, you will see them move up and down over the next month or so. Give them a month, THEN you can realign your rankings based on performance. All these weekly updated lists are nothing more than cheap page hit tricks.

[Old Sneakers]

Teams typically don't consider how far away a prospect is from the major league level. If they did a guy like Deck McGuire would've gone much higher last year. The MLB Draft is going to make you pull your hair out if you keep looking at mock drafts like I do this time of year.

I keep seeing SS Francisco Lindor popping up at #4 overall and that just wouldn't be good value with #4 overall.

I really think Gerrit Cole is going number one overall and after that it's a drop off. Everywhere I read the so called experts say it's a far deeper draft than last year and greater depth overall. Based on memory of what I read a year ago and what I am reading now, I agree. I tend to refer to http://baseballbeginnings.com a great deal when it comes to researching players.

I'll list my own personal list here hoping some of you will poke holes in it or raise valid points in it. Subject to change but I see it this way...

Pitching (College)
1- RHP Gerrit Cole
2- RHP Taylor Jungmann
3- LHP Jed Bradley
4- LHP Mathew Purke
5- LHP Danny Hultzen

You can switch Hultzen and Purke around as far as I am concerned. Both have questions surrounding them. Purke has Mechanical issues, you have to wonder what professional coaching can do for him. Purke could be this years Anthony Ranaudo dropping way down, but without the performace drop and injury Ranaudo had. Hultzen: "... Should profile as No. 3-5 ML starter with average stuff across the board...". That quote scares me. Yes, you need guys like that. I just don't know that he has value at 1:4. With Hultzen it's a matter of potential.

I think very highly of Jungmann and Bradley and think your spot on in that he (Bradley) should be considered #4 overall.

[Don]

Well for those trying to curb the high school kids Dylan Bundy just threw 7 innings facing 21 batters yesterday. He struck out 18 and hit 96 mph on the gun at least over 10 times and never sat below 94. Seeing he has added a flithy cutter in the upper 80's going with a high 90's fastball, he is most likely the third or fourth best pitcher out of this class.

I said eariler this year that he has two plus-plus pitches and if he worked the third to par, he is a top 15 selection. Way too early to solidify, Bundy came out of the gate with both barrells full and guns blazing....

[allstar1579]

Well for those trying to curb the high school kids Dylan Bundy just threw 7 innings facing 21 batters yesterday. He struck out 18 and hit 96 mph on the gun at least over 10 times and never sat below 94. Seeing he has added a flithy cutter in the upper 80's going with a high 90's fastball, he is most likely the third or fourth best pitcher out of this class.

I said eariler this year that he has two plus-plus pitches and if he worked the third to par, he is a top 15 selection. Way too early to solidify, Bundy came out of the gate with both barrells full and guns blazing....

Well for those trying to curb the high school kids Dylan Bundy just threw 7 innings facing 21 batters yesterday. He struck out 18 and hit 96 mph on the gun at least over 10 times and never sat below 94. Seeing he has added a flithy cutter in the upper 80's going with a high 90's fastball, he is most likely the third or fourth best pitcher out of this class.

I said eariler this year that he has two plus-plus pitches and if he worked the third to par, he is a top 15 selection. Way too early to solidify, Bundy came out of the gate with both barrells full and guns blazing....

Yeah I almost wish you could trade back in MLB. 4 is too high to take him, but no way he's around in the 2nd, he's going to be good though. Starling had a really good start in his debut the other day too.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I keep seeing SS Francisco Lindor popping up at #4 overall and that just wouldn't be good value with #4 overall.

Agree here. There was some discussion about him over in another thread and seems to me he's a stud defensive player with some good offensive potential, but not someone worth drafting at #4.

I really think Gerrit Cole is going number one overall and after that it's a drop off. Everywhere I read the so called experts say it's a far deeper draft than last year and greater depth overall. Based on memory of what I read a year ago and what I am reading now, I agree. I tend to refer to http://baseballbeginnings.com a great deal when it comes to researching players.

Agree once again. I haven't followed this year's class as closely as I'd like to but I have seen nothing but positive tweets about Cole in my twitter feed. Today:

Gerrit Cole sitting threw consecutive pitches of 97, 98 and 96 here in the 2nd. Wouldn't surprise me if he does the same in the 7th.

I'll list my own personal list here hoping some of you will poke holes in it or raise valid points in it. Subject to change but I see it this way...

Pitching (College)
1- RHP Gerrit Cole
2- RHP Taylor Jungmann
3- LHP Jed Bradley
4- LHP Mathew Purke
5- LHP Danny Hultzen

You can switch Hultzen and Purke around as far as I am concerned. Both have questions surrounding them. Purke has Mechanical issues, you have to wonder what professional coaching can do for him. Purke could be this years Anthony Ranaudo dropping way down, but without the performace drop and injury Ranaudo had. Hultzen: "... Should profile as No. 3-5 ML starter with average stuff across the board...". That quote scares me. Yes, you need guys like that. I just don't know that he has value at 1:4. With Hultzen it's a matter of potential.

I think very highly of Jungmann and Bradley and think your spot on in that he (Bradley) should be considered #4 overall.

I definitely want to see how Hultzen fairs against the ACC once conference plays begins, but he's been undeniably good. If he keeps it up he'd probably solidify himself as a top 10 pick. We've mentioned it before but especially for a team like Arizona, he makes sense if they're looking for a safer pick.

Jungmann is a guy who I think you either really like or don't like. The stuff is above-average but if you're worried about his mechanics you might put him on Purke's level, but probably not quite that extreme.

[Old Sneakers]

For those still aching for any info I'll copy part of a Kieth Law Chat I found elsewhere regarding College arms.

Danny Hultzen, LHSP
University of Virginia
Hultzen is a highly polished pitcher with fringe plus offerings. I do not think there is much projection left in his pitches with the exception of his change up. He shows good feel for it and it might qualify as a future plus-plus offering. Command is not an issue, but I think he could improve upon his placement and that would improve how he uses those pitches. His dominance so far this season has been largely due to how well he has been able to place his slider. Some like to think if you flash a skill, you own the skill. I'm a little more conservative than that, but do think the possibility is there. Like Bradley, I think he will move quickly through the minors and not be challenged until the Majors. For comparison's sake, I would put Brian Matusz above him or Bradley.

Jed Bradley, LHSP
Georgia Tech
I tend to value college players and college lefties a great deal. Bradley fulfills both. He throws a fastball in the low 90s and accompanies that with a fringe-plus change up and a good slider. He is the type of pitcher who is a safe bet to glide through the minors and not meet resistance until he faces more polished hitters in the Majors. He has a good strong body and a motion without any red flags for me. I'm hoping to see him in person when I make it to Clemson this year.

Taylor Jungmann, RHSP
University of Texas - Austin
Jungmann is safer than Gray and has the potential to be a front end starter. His pitching motion is easier than Gray's as it is not as maximum effort. However, it should be noted that there may be some interest in lengthening his stride as currently it is short enough that he puts extra stress on his shoulder to get his arm to catch up. It may also be a situation where he is a very good prospect and it might be a poor idea to change anything significantly. He has a low 90s fastball and slots his change up similarly to make it an effective offering. Jungmann also has a slurve that is not as sharp as Gray's, but flashes plus with good command. He is another solid arm in this draft class.

Sonny Gray, RHSP
Vanderbilt University
I might be on an island here, but many look at his full effort delivery and his small stature . . . then see a closer in the making. Although it is a full effort delivery, I think it can be repeatable. His stuff is electric with a hard, tailing fastball that he keeps in the mid to low 90s and a plus-plus curve that has movement in two planes. He has had some control issues in the past and many blame the delivery on it, but from reports I have read this year it sounds that control has not been as worrisome. He has also been working on a slider that would give his repertoire a boost in the depth of his offerings. I would be quite excited to land him.

Still plenty of time for these tidbits to become meaningless but I know we are all hungry for info as the draft approaches.

[Don]

I have seen Bradley live in Miami against a full right handed lineup. He buzz sawed that lineup with a fastball sitting 94-95 that day with alot of magic life on it. His fastball sinks and cuts into the right handed hitters and bring this with a change up that sat 83-84 and with solid command was a giant wrecking force. The ump was poor and he should had a no hitter going he was that solid. I like him alot and think he is another left hander that could be front of the rotation type starter.

I do not know how it shakes out, but I would not be suprised if one of the two choices tends to be Bundy or Starling at this time.

[Tenth Inning]

For those still aching for any info I'll copy part of a Kieth Law Chat I found elsewhere regarding College arms.

Danny Hultzen, LHSP
University of Virginia
Hultzen is a highly polished pitcher with fringe plus offerings. I do not think there is much projection left in his pitches with the exception of his change up. He shows good feel for it and it might qualify as a future plus-plus offering. Command is not an issue, but I think he could improve upon his placement and that would improve how he uses those pitches. His dominance so far this season has been largely due to how well he has been able to place his slider. Some like to think if you flash a skill, you own the skill. I'm a little more conservative than that, but do think the possibility is there. Like Bradley, I think he will move quickly through the minors and not be challenged until the Majors. For comparison's sake, I would put Brian Matusz above him or Bradley.

Jed Bradley, LHSP
Georgia Tech
I tend to value college players and college lefties a great deal. Bradley fulfills both. He throws a fastball in the low 90s and accompanies that with a fringe-plus change up and a good slider. He is the type of pitcher who is a safe bet to glide through the minors and not meet resistance until he faces more polished hitters in the Majors. He has a good strong body and a motion without any red flags for me. I'm hoping to see him in person when I make it to Clemson this year.

Taylor Jungmann, RHSP
University of Texas - Austin
Jungmann is safer than Gray and has the potential to be a front end starter. His pitching motion is easier than Gray's as it is not as maximum effort. However, it should be noted that there may be some interest in lengthening his stride as currently it is short enough that he puts extra stress on his shoulder to get his arm to catch up. It may also be a situation where he is a very good prospect and it might be a poor idea to change anything significantly. He has a low 90s fastball and slots his change up similarly to make it an effective offering. Jungmann also has a slurve that is not as sharp as Gray's, but flashes plus with good command. He is another solid arm in this draft class.

Sonny Gray, RHSP
Vanderbilt University
I might be on an island here, but many look at his full effort delivery and his small stature . . . then see a closer in the making. Although it is a full effort delivery, I think it can be repeatable. His stuff is electric with a hard, tailing fastball that he keeps in the mid to low 90s and a plus-plus curve that has movement in two planes. He has had some control issues in the past and many blame the delivery on it, but from reports I have read this year it sounds that control has not been as worrisome. He has also been working on a slider that would give his repertoire a boost in the depth of his offerings. I would be quite excited to land him.

Still plenty of time for these tidbits to become meaningless but I know we are all hungry for info as the draft approaches.

Thanks for this. I agree with just about all of Law's sentiments, particularly his comments regarding Gray. Writing him off due to size and frame is short-sighted, IMO. You need to go on a case-by-case basis with these things. Gray's mechanics are clean despite the effort and he has shown durability. I am no more concerned by his delivery than by Jungmann's. Command is the more significant knock on Gray.

Hultzen and Bradley are safer bets to stick in the rotation and arrive quickly, but I see both likely settling into the middle of the rotation.

In terms of pure stuff, I'd take Gray out of the four.

[Don]

I have seen Gray in person. It is not full effort; it is a max effort. I mean it sounds like the guy is throwing a 10 lb weight inside a discus ring for the olympics. I do not care what kind of stuff he has on the table; he throws everything to the point of no return and you are talking about a guy who throws a 12/6 at max effort. This does little to think that he will one day blow out something being asked to repeat that effort 60, 70, 80, 90, even 100 pitches a game.

He is a guy that is 5'8" or 5'9" and needs to eat a steak. I combine this with the amount of force he throws with each pitch. I will take the bashing if he pans out and skip to take someone that I think is a better long term option to a starter.

If they want to go with power and stuff, I will take Dylan Bundy in the long term over Gray. I still think Bradley has more to offer than mid-rotation and gives you a better sense that he can maintain a starter. I will be seeing Hultzen soon and on tape his game is good enough to start as well. I tend to like Bradley a bit more because he keeps the ball down and hits in the 94-95. Gray sits in the 91-92 a lot and can gear up a 97, but everyone drools like he throws it 96-97 every pitch, it is just not the case.