who the heck are we going to take?

[docjj]

I'm really quite baffled by who we might end up with. Assume all current players available stay healthy and perform at their current levels.

Jordan is not afraid to take high schoolers. He has a long track record of going with high school guys. But this draft is supposed to be notable for its remarkable pool of college pitching. Yet besides Gerritt Cole, all the other college guys come with some question marks.

-Sonny Gray. Small. Injury risk? I also don't like how he completely falls of the mound after each pitch.

-Taylor Jungmann. Overall consistent performance. But not in Cole's league. And is he worth the 4th overall pick. Some dont' like his side swinging motions during his delivery and think there's injury potential here.

-Jed Bradley. Great performance, although statistically being outdone by teammate Pope. Yet not overpowering and many feel not worth a top 5 pick.

-Matt Purke. Stock falling. Some see a reliever. Some see an injury risk. Not pitched much this year due to blister problems. Plus, can return for a junior year, making him a potential tough signing.

-Trevor Bauer. Dominant performances this year. But very high pitch counts (129 in one recent game). Injury potential.

-Matt Barnes. A quality hard-throwing righty, but hasn't faced elite competition and worthy of pick #4?

-Danny Hultzen. Soaring up draft boards because of a dominant year so far. But many feel he's not overpowering and not worthy of #4 pick.

So I give up. This draft is supposed to be very deep in college pitching, but apart from Cole, everyone seems to have a question mark. Who would you pick? I'm starting to think that a "safe" pick may not be a bad way to go. I'd put Gray and Hultzen in that category. They may not be Cy Young winners, but they should be successful.

[docjj]

After watching some video, I'm starting to think Barnes may be a safe guy. He's 6'4 and big. His fastball has been called the second best in the draft behind Cole's and is considered unhittable at times. Plus, he struck out 1st rounders Rendon and Bradley Jr last year and made them look foolish. He's done very well against the Cape Cod League. And his numbers this year are great ERA of 1.00 (in 54 IP) plus BA .147

[Don]

If the Orioles took Matt Barnes, there will be giggles for those slotted behind him and alot of scouting directors, GM's happy that they passed on the slew of quality arms left on the table. Barnes is not ranked in my top 10 any longer....

[Don]

You do not watch much action. Bradley stuff is flat out un-hittable. He faces lineups of right handers start in and start out and mulls them down with ease. I have now seen 5 of his starts and he continues his torrid path. While last season he was an engima, he is neck and neck with Hultzen as the top lefty on most boards and easily a top 5 selection. He has passed Gray, Purke, because alot I talk to are not sold on either one being able to handle the rigors of starting pitching.

As I continue to say, the freak in San Fran is simply that these days. He is an exception to the rule and falls in line with the other great small statured pitchers in baseball history. 9 times out of the other 10, you get the Billy Wanger's or worst. Closer is not worth the 4th overall pick when the best in baseball last season was a 23rd rounder from 2003.

[docjj]

Most draft pundits have Barnes in the top 10, and I don't see anything in his numbers to see why he might slide down. I take it you guys think Bradley is the way to go here. Do you think that's who Jordan might be looking at?

[docjj]

Interesting statistic- strikeouts per 9 IP. It doesn't tell the whole story, obviously. (Gerritt Cole is ranked 41 on this list, and no one would argue the's the top pitcher available). But it does give a good indication as to these guys' ability to miss bats. Hultzen's number is particuarly mind-boggling- 15.6 K's per 9 IP! Notice Bradley and Gray at 5,6.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/c ... vidual/207

[Old Sneakers]

As I continue to day, the freck in San Fran is simply that these days. He is an exception to the rule and falls in line with the other great small statured pitchers in baseball history. 9 times out of the other 10, you get the Billy Wanger's or worst. Closer is not worth the 4th overall pick when the best in baseball last season was a 23rd rounder from 2003.

Hitting the nail on the head with that one.

I really think with the team likely to improve it's record this year and less likely to have such a high pick this year the team will value a college player and safety. Add to the fact that service times are just starting to tick, the team will again focus on pitching as it has said it will continue to do so. In a four years time the team might be in a good position to make significant trades with it's Pitching in an attempt to bolster it's other needs.

I'll be shocked it it's not a college pitcher.

Assuming Cole is gone it's still one of these three for me...
Taylor Jungmann
Jed Bradley
Danny Hultzen

[S.Hogan]

At this point, I think I'd go with:

1) Bradley
2)Starling
3)Hultzen
4) Gray

I like the idea of having a college pitcher who can move through the system quickly and eventually sit atop the rotation. Bradley's power stuff is intriguing, and Hultzen seems to have a similar profile to Matusz. Still, the tools and hype around Starling are hard to ignore. Either way, we should land a very good player as long as we're willing to spend.

[Don]

In my circles, Barnes has been seen as too inconsistant with stuff, with command, with presense on the mound. He can be flat out great one start and flat the next. He is already passed by the good ol' boy in Texas and people are higher on Anthony Meo. He could be anywhere from 12th to 20th selection depending on the growth of the high school arms.

[allstar1579]

Word is that it'll be a college player, Rendon if he drops (which there are whispers he might) and one of the pitchers if he doesn't.

[Don]

Not entirely on point at the moment. While Rendon is not out the equation, Starling, Bundy, Taylor are very much in play with the Orioles. I do noth think the Orioles have piegon holed themselves into a certain class of player at this point. There has not been enough in the prep ranks to make that kind of judgement. While the board might be College heavy, it is simply because scouts have seen more recent profiles to make a more accurate grade. Final boards usually come by Mid-May.

There are really 6 guys that are starting to set themselves out of the top group of players and the Orioles would be wise to keep all 6 on thier radar.

[docjj]

well don't keep me in suspense! Who are the 6?

I have:

Rendon
Cole
Jungmann
Bradley (pitcher, not the outfielder)
Gray
Starling?

[Tenth Inning]

Don, I agree with your take on Barnes. He has neither the upside nor the safety (inconsistency) to justify a top 5 pick in this draft.

As far as the candidates being considered for the birds, my assumption is that they've mostly narrowed the list down to pitchers, though not necessarily college guys.

I think they'd pick either Rendon or Cole if one should drop, and outside of that they are considering:

Jed Bradley
Taylor Jungmann
Bubba Starling
Dylan Bundy

With guys like Gray, Taylor Guerrieri, and Archie Bradley possibly on the periphery.

I love Danny Hultzen, have been rooting for him for a while, but I still think he's a stretch at 1:4.

[docjj]

I don't get the hating on Barnes. He might not be worth the 4th overall pick, and I've never seen him pitch, but there's a lot to like. First, he perfomed extremely well in the Cape Cod league which features good college hitters. Second, I've read his fastball is the second best in the draft, behind Cole's.

I know statistics don't tell the whole story, but in 8 games, he's averaging 8 innings a start, striking out a ton of guys to go along with an ERA of 1.08 and opponent's BA of .148.

That's consistent. I would argue Connecticut probably doesn't face the same level of competition as some of the other guys...

[Don]

I lump Barnes and Bauer into the same class. While both are talented players, the stats will fool you because they go deep into counts on many batters. I think both are a tick or two below Cole, Hultzen, Bradley, and Bundy.

If this were another class, Barnes might have been the #1 pick. I do not think either are bad prospects. I simply think the first group are a shade better with command and control. Barnes has a tremendous fastball. If he could command the pitch and control the pitch better, I think he would be closing the gap in the group.

2011 is a better than above average draft class. It is a nice thing for the Diamondbacks to have multiple top ten slots, but financially they could go cheap to curb spending. This is one class where I would be willing to dole out $10 million to sign a pair of very good prospects.