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Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #1 by ofahn » May 1st, 2013, 3:22 pm

Twenty seven games is exactly one sixth of a season and the Orioles' record is 16 - 11; that projects to a 96 and 66 record which would be a virtual lock on a playoff spot.

The good news is that Chris Davis and Adam Jones appear to have matured as hitters, particularly Davis. Manny Machado looks like a future MVP and Nate McLouth may be the bargain of the decade.

It might surprise you to know that Machado, Davis, and Jones are all on a pace to drive in more than 100 runs this year, and Davis is on a pace to drive in 150.

The bullpen has been above average, but not the plus factor it was last year, and the starting pitching has definitely taken a step backwards. We need two SPs to grab on to the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation and make them theirs.

The defense has been better than it was at this time last year, but the lapses can be blamed for AT LEAST three of our losses.

I should be happy that we're on a 96 win pace, but I find it hard to get past the fact that we have given away as many as four games so far this year, and twenty wins would look a whole lot better than 16. If we can just get the pitching to settle down we could run away with the division.
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #2 by LA Detective » May 1st, 2013, 6:35 pm

ofahn wrote:The good news is that Chris Davis and Adam Jones appear to have matured as hitters, particularly Davis. Manny Machado looks like a future MVP and Nate McLouth may be the bargain of the decade.

Davis has proved he isnt hot, he is good. Minus last year's immediate slump (appox. .150BA) of the 25 games or so he went to the OF in June and July and this guy is hitting above .300 for almoost the last year.

After his playoff failures, Jones has showed that he learned and now just finds a way to drive in a run instead of swinging for the fences every pitch. The great ones learn from their failures.

Machado is starting to belong in the Harper and Trout conversations. We knew it would happen but not this quick.

I really wanted McLouth to return. He brings so much and has elevated his game more. Absolute bargain when you look at the Victorinos and a few others.

ofahn wrote:If we can just get the pitching to settle down we could run away with the division.


I don't think Boston is going to go away but I do agree with you. It is going to all come down to our starting pitching.

We need to keep JJ and ODay fresh. Matusz has a starters arm and can probably pitch 80 innings. The other two should stay at 70. I am concerned about this becasue of the Starters not getting enough innings and Strops failures. We will probably have to tweak the Pen in the future if Strop doesn't regain form.
We can live with Hardy but we need to get a 2b that can hit above .260 and a DH that hits like he belongs in the top 6. We do that and our offense can compete with any others.
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #3 by Jordan Tuwiner » May 1st, 2013, 7:17 pm

LA Detective wrote:Machado is starting to belong in the Harper and Trout conversations. We knew it would happen but not this quick.

Harper and Machado both have 1.4 fWAR this season.
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #4 by A_K » May 1st, 2013, 7:33 pm

I'm going to be careful with the WAR-based comparison of Harper, Trout and Machado through the first month of the season (LA Detective, I realize you didn't mention WAR in your initial comparison.

Harper's 1.4 WAR so far comes along with a -1.4 Fld component. Trout's 1 WAR so far comes with a 2.4 Fld component. Machado's 1.4 WAR comes with a 6.9 Fld component.

I don't think it's particularly surprising that Machado's been great defensively: that's exactly what any sane person would have seen with their own eyes. But we know the most volatile component of WAR is its defensive component, so if there's an early-season WAR fueled by a particularly outlying defensive rating I'm going to be cautious about giving it too much credit.

Even still, attach all the qualifiers you want to it, Machado's even being in their ballpark is indicative of how damn good he's been. And for the "get the hell out of here with your newfangled measurements of the game" folks, he's been no less impressive through the old-fashioned eye test.
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #5 by Jordan Tuwiner » May 1st, 2013, 8:57 pm

I don't think it carries any significance. Machado's defense obviously won't continue. I just thought it was a neat stat. UZR in small sample sizes is fun.
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #6 by Old Sneakers » May 1st, 2013, 11:09 pm

I wish that I felt that 96-66 record was actually achievable but I do not. Not at least until we know we have five rotation spots claimed and confident that they won't be surrendered. The bullpen remains a strength but is being over-worked. I fear trouble ahead as far as the pitching goes.

I do agree that Machado, Jones and Davis have been outstanding so far (forgetting the costly drops from Jones). As well as Markakis being his usually dependable self. However I would not put Machado in any category with Trout or Harper. Maybe next year, he's still got some growing to do yet, and he can get much better.

I also see a huge amount of room for improvement at the plate from Weiters, Casilla, Reimold and Hardy. I don't expect them to bat .285 but they certainly could do better than they have thus far. That said if the top five in the order cool off we are going to see a really wretched stretch!

I still see the Orioles as a .500 team with needs in it's pitching and questions at a few positions with 2B and SS being the biggest.
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #7 by birdwatcher55 » May 2nd, 2013, 12:01 pm

I think Machado is the real deal, especially with the glove. Anyone who can't see that needs glasses :shock:
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #8 by A_K » May 2nd, 2013, 1:52 pm

birdwatcher55 wrote:I think Machado is the real deal, especially with the glove. Anyone who can't see that needs glasses :shock:


Who can't see that?
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #9 by Jordan Tuwiner » May 2nd, 2013, 3:59 pm

A_K wrote:
Who can't see that?

Yeah, who?
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #10 by birdwatcher55 » May 3rd, 2013, 12:37 pm

Those who are blind I guess :lol:
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #11 by osforlife » May 4th, 2013, 4:18 pm

I'll admit, New York and Boston are the two of the AL EAST teams I least expected to see at the top of the division. Toronto is running out of time, but they are still a good team on paper. Remember, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Morrow, RA Dickey, Mark Buerhle, Jose Bautista, and Brett Lawrie will all eventually play MUCH, MUCH better than what they are playing now. They need to pick it up by July, or else they'll start selling pieces like Josh Johnson, Rajai Davis, Melky Cabrera, and Darren Oliver.
I think the Orioles are a .500 team, and they have played like it so far. The 5th spot of the rotation and second base have been very bad, but I think that was expected after practically doing nothing to improve those areas in the off-season.
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #12 by LA Detective » May 5th, 2013, 1:00 pm

Lets compare where we are this year to last year around this time:

2012: We had no leadoff hitter in sight after Nolan went down. In fact we probably had the worst OBA from the 1&2 spots in the league.
2013: We might be near the top of the league in OBA from the 1&2 spots and we have depth there.

2012: Our middle of the order really didnt scare anyone. We had Nick and AJ was good but still left runners on and the 5th spot didnt do a whole lot.
2013: We still have Nick who alwasy starts slow. AJ has taken a big step forward in finding ways to get runs in without the HR. Then CD in the 5th spot. We can compete with most here.

2012: Our Defense was horrible due to big holes at 3b, LF, 1B and 2B (Andino made alot of errors).
2013 Our defense is one of the best in baseball. 3b and LF are GG caliber now. CD has been solid at 1B and we are solid at 2B

2012: Startering pitching was a concern and not alot of known depth
2013: Still a concern but much greater depth that progressively gets deeper as we move to June and July (JairJ, SteveJ, re-trained Jake or Britton, Wada and Gausman).

2012: Bullpen. Was great but not alot of depth if anything went wrong. Main reason we won the 1st half.
2013: Almost as great but much more depth especially if you include the starters who dont make the rotation. We now have a long man, 2 situational lefties and Hunter has been a plus. Only concern is keeping ODay and JJ fresh for the long haul.

2012: Focus. Probably the 2nd reason why we won in the 1st half. Buck has a way of keeping them focused each day throughout the whole game.
2013: A few lapses have cost us. Gotta believe that will even out through the long haul.

Bottom line is we are in so much better shape this year than last. DD/Buck made some great moves in late July that seemed small but really changed the team. I think we will probably see the same this year but more in the mold of a trade (solid #2 starter, DH and maybe 2B).
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #13 by ofahn » May 5th, 2013, 3:16 pm

LA Detective wrote:2012: Startering pitching was a concern and not alot of known depth
2013: Still a concern but much greater depth that progressively gets deeper as we move to June and July (JairJ, SteveJ, re-trained Jake or Britton, Wada and Gausman).


I still see the SP as the biggest concern followed by our inability to manufacture runs.

It's been the INCONSISTENCY of our SP that has concerned me so much. If some of these guys can settle down and find a groove I would feel much better about things.
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #14 by birdwatcher55 » May 6th, 2013, 12:33 pm

My two cents: this is not a small ball kind of team although it could probably be better at it. I think Machado is about ready to explode as a big time prospect and that fact is exciting because that pushes this club into a new dimension we haven't seen in years. I like too the potential impact that Schoop and Gausman could have on this club later in the season. I think Dan will make moves when and where necessary. Personally I'm starting to get excited about this team 8-)
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Re: Exactly One Sixth Of The Way Through The 2013 Season

PostPost #15 by ofahn » May 6th, 2013, 1:53 pm

birdwatcher55 wrote:this is not a small ball kind of team


Championship teams generally excel at these skill sets:

    1) pitching
    2) defense
    3) manufacturing runs (small ball) where necessary

Our SP has been shaky. Our defense has been good with the notable multiple lapses of a certain supposed team leader, and we haven't been able to consistently manufacture runs. Show me improvement in the two substandard areas over the next thirty odd games and I will start to get excited, too.
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