Welcome to the Orioles Nation Forums! Like most online communities, you must register to post on our message board. However, posting is free--it always will be--and registration is a simple process. Become part of the growing Orioles Nation community and register now!

The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #16 by birdwatcher55 » March 12th, 2013, 12:14 pm

Thankfully some of these folks don't run our FO. :lol:
birdwatcher55
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1624
Joined: November 2011
Reputation Score: 11

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #17 by osforlife » March 12th, 2013, 5:32 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
I bet Buck think different, and he's the one that counts.

You're right, Buck is the manager of a major league baseball team and I am an internet blogger. Buck and DD make all the roster decisions and my opinion doesn't matter at all. In fact, none of our intellect matters, for we don't make trades or the lineup card. Then why do we comment?; because the Orioles are our passion and we enjoy predicting, analyzing, and speculating transactions. What we express won't alter front office decisions, so why are there baseball blogs and baseball commenters to begin with? I'm sure we'd love to have Buck Showalter be a Orioles-Nation User along with us. Unfortunately, we cannot, so we have to spit out what comes out of our own minds. If you are intent with letting Buck think everything through with no disagreeing, why do you personally comment and not just copy down every Buck Showalter quote that comes out to the media? After all, he is the only one that counts.
Last edited by osforlife on March 12th, 2013, 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
osforlife
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1621
Joined: October 2011
Location: Southern Maryland
Reputation Score: 59

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #18 by ofahn » March 12th, 2013, 5:38 pm

osforlife wrote:You're right, Buck is the manager of a major league baseball team and I am an internet blogger. Buck and DD make all the roster decisions and my opinion doesn't matter at all. In fact, none of our intellect matters, for we don't make trades or the lineup card. Then why do we comment?; because the Orioles are our passion and we enjoy predicted, analyzing, and speculating transactions. What we express won't alter front office decisions, so why are there baseball blogs and baseball commenters? I'm sure we'd love to have Buck Showalter be a Orioles-Nation along with us. Unfortunately, we cannot, so we have to spit out what comes out of our own minds. If you are intent with letting Buck think everything through with no disagreeing, why do you personally comment and not just copy down every Buck Showalter quote that comes out to the media? After all, he is the only one that counts.


VERY....WELL....SAID!

POINTS!
User avatar
ofahn
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 4399
Joined: May 2011
Reputation Score: 85

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #19 by Seafordeagles » March 12th, 2013, 5:50 pm

osforlife wrote:You're right, Buck is the manager of a major league baseball team and I am an internet blogger. Buck and DD make all the roster decisions and my opinion doesn't matter at all. In fact, none of our intellect matters, for we don't make trades or the lineup card. Then why do we comment?; because the Orioles are our passion and we enjoy predicting, analyzing, and speculating transactions. What we express won't alter front office decisions, so why are there baseball blogs and baseball commenters to begin with? I'm sure we'd love to have Buck Showalter be a Orioles-Nation User along with us. Unfortunately, we cannot, so we have to spit out what comes out of our own minds. If you are intent with letting Buck think everything through with no disagreeing, why do you personally comment and not just copy down every Buck Showalter quote that comes out to the media? After all, he is the only one that counts.


I comment because of some of the totally absurd things that you say such as how you rated JJ.

Erick Aybar, give me a break. I guarantee you if you offered JJ for Aybar the Angels would be doing back flips to do that deal. I don't need cyberstats to see who the better all around player is.
Seafordeagles
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 689
Joined: October 2012
Reputation Score: 18

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #20 by osforlife » March 12th, 2013, 6:10 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
I comment because of some of the totally absurd things that you say such as how you rated JJ.

Erick Aybar, give me a break. I guarantee you if you offered JJ for Aybar the Angels would be doing back flips to do that deal. I don't need cyberstats to see who the better all around player is.

Why do you comment in general, not just in matters surrounding JJ Hardy? Why do WE comment at all?

In regards to statistics, you need statistics to measure a player's value or...ANYTHING. Baseball would be a crapshoot if nobody wrote anything down and just watched the game. The only way to prove a player is better than the other is to back it up with statistics. You cannot simply say JJ Hardy is better than Erick Aybar without attempting to back it up. If I said Wei Yen Chen is better than Clayton Kershaw, and I don't need anything to back that up, is that okay too?

JJ Hardy has two years left on his contract, while Erick Aybar has four. Per Baseball-Reference, JJ Hardy has had a WAR of 4.0 and 3.0 in the last two seasons while Erick Aybar has had a WAR of 4 in each of the last two seasons. Per Fangraphs, JJ Hardy produced a 4.8 WAR in 2011 and a 2.8 WAR in 2012 while Erick Aybar has produced a 4.1 in 2011 and a 3.4 in 2012. Over the last two years, JJ Hardy has 0 net steals while Erick Aybar has 40 net steals. In the last two years, Hardy has produced an average .736 OPS while Aybar has produced an average .741 OPS. I'll gladly take two more years of the better player in Aybar.
User avatar
osforlife
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1621
Joined: October 2011
Location: Southern Maryland
Reputation Score: 59

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #21 by Seafordeagles » March 12th, 2013, 6:18 pm

osforlife wrote:Why do you comment in general, not just in matters surrounding JJ Hardy? Why do WE comment at all?



In regards to statistics, you need statistics to measure a player's value or...ANYTHING. Baseball would be a crapshoot if nobody wrote anything down and just watched the game. The only way to prove a player is better than the other is to back it up with statistics. You cannot simply say JJ Hardy is better than Erick Aybar without attempting to back it up. If I said Wei Yen Chen is better than Clayton Kershaw, and I don't need anything to back that up, is that okay too?

JJ Hardy has two years left on his contract, while Erick Aybar has four. Per Baseball-Reference, JJ Hardy has had a WAR of 4.0 and 3.0 in the last two seasons while Erick Aybar has had a WAR of 4 in each of the last two seasons. Per Fangraphs, JJ Hardy produced a 4.8 WAR in 2011 and a 2.8 WAR in 2012 while Erick Aybar has produced a 4.1 in 2011 and a 3.4 in 2012. Over the last two years, JJ Hardy has 0 net steals while Erick Aybar has 40 net steals. In the last two years, Hardy has produced an average .736 OPS while Aybar has produced an average .741 OPS. I'll gladly take two more years of the better player in Aybar.


I can counter with you all day long. You didn't compare home runs but you compare steals, you didn't talk about fielding, and hopefully you don't think Aybar is a better fielder. Now you say you will have Aybar for 4 years instead of 2 for JJ. That just totally goes against your feeling of getting Manny to shortstop which is well documented.

We can go on even more if you like.
Seafordeagles
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 689
Joined: October 2012
Reputation Score: 18

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #22 by A_K » March 12th, 2013, 7:17 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
I can counter with you all day long. You didn't compare home runs but you compare steals, you didn't talk about fielding, and hopefully you don't think Aybar is a better fielder. Now you say you will have Aybar for 4 years instead of 2 for JJ. That just totally goes against your feeling of getting Manny to shortstop which is well documented.

We can go on even more if you like.


Aybar has had a UZR of -2.2, 1.2, -2, 4.5 and 5.5 over the last five years.
Hardy has had a UZR of 11.4, 10.7, 8.1, 6.8, and 6.5 over the same period.

UZR suggests they aren't even close on that front, with Hardy's defense worth roughly 8 runs over the course of the season compared to Aybar.

In defensive runs saved above average, according to baseball info solutions...

Aybar has saved 3, -1, 4, 1 and 0 runs over the last five seasons.
Hardy has saved 18, 8, -5, 2 and 13 runs over the last five season.

Once again, this stat doesn't think it's particularly close, with Hardy's defense being worth something like 10 runs over the course of the year over Aybar.

So, that's definitely something in Hardy's favor in a comparison with Aybar (though you should of course keep in mind that defensive value is a component of WAR, so you can't just say "well they may have similar WARs but Hardy's much better at defense so I'll take him).

For Hardy to be that much better at defense with the two players still having comparable overall value (that's what WAR measures, don't let the acronym throw you off), he'd have to be much worse at some combination of offense and baserunning.

For hitting, let's look at wRC+. Again, don't let the stupid acronym fool you. Here's what it does: it measures the runs each player accounts for per plate appearance-- adjusted for ballpark factors and the run scoring environment of the league they play in-- and is presented where 100 is average, and each number above or below is a percentage above or below average.

Hardy has had a wRC+ in the last five years of 78 (22 percent worse than the average hitter), 113 (13 percent better than the avg hitter, etc.), 101, 94, and 67. As a SS, he can be a worthwhile offensive contributor even while being below average, so obviously he was quite valuable two years ago.

Again, those numbers: 78, 113, 101, 94 and 67.

Aybar over the period: 106, 106, 78, 105, and 86.

So Hardy has had the best year out of the two players, but also the worst year. Aybar has more consistently been right around a league average hitter.

But baserunning is part of how teams score runs as well, so we can't just pretend it doesn't exist.

In that realm, it's not even close.

Let's look at Fangraph's BsR, which counts not only steals and caught stealings but also how often a player can take an extra base. Again this is presented in total runs scored above the average player over the course of the season.

Hardy: 0.4, -0.8, 0.2, -0.6, -1.8
Aybar: 5.1, 4.4, 4.8, 2.1, 1.9

That's a pretty sizable difference. Not something to blithely ignore as "just baserunning." He's wroth something like 4 runs a year over the course of the season over Hardy just on the basepaths.

In the end, I'd say they're very similar players. Hardy is substantially better at defense, Aybar is slightly better at the plate, and Aybar is substantially better running the bases. Aybar is also two years younger and is under contract for two additional seasons.

Prefer whichever player you'd like based on this information-- they're close enough that you could certainly make a case for either one and be considered an eminently reasonable person. It certainly isn't absurd to think Aybar is more valuable though... especially when you consider his age and contract situation. (Aybar will be paid $8.5 million each season until he reaches free agency after 2016. Hardy will be paid $7 million in each of the next two years and will be a free agent in 2015).
A_K
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 608
Joined: April 2011
Reputation Score: 43

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #23 by osforlife » March 12th, 2013, 8:23 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
I can counter with you all day long. You didn't compare home runs but you compare steals, you didn't talk about fielding, and hopefully you don't think Aybar is a better fielder. Now you say you will have Aybar for 4 years instead of 2 for JJ. That just totally goes against your feeling of getting Manny to shortstop which is well documented.

We can go on even more if you like.

WAR compiles a player's offensive and defensive contribution. So yes, I did include defense.
OPS compiles a player's on base percentage and slugging percentage. Homeruns are a big part of slugging percentage, but sure, JJ Hardy does have more homeruns than Aybar. Erick Aybar simply uses his speed to produce extra base hits, or in other words, more power than JJ Hardy.
I don't want to trade for Erick Aybar. I want Manny Machado at shortstop. You simply said if the Orioles offered JJ Hardy for Erick Aybar they would make that deal in a flash. I wasn't acting from an Orioles standpoint, I was acting from a baseball standpoint. Erick Aybar is the better player, and is under control for two more years. Who wouldn't take two more years of a better player?
User avatar
osforlife
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1621
Joined: October 2011
Location: Southern Maryland
Reputation Score: 59

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #24 by thezeroes » March 12th, 2013, 8:33 pm

The gist of this thread had started with the idea that if/when the Cardinals deem it necessary to do so should the Orioles be in the mix to trade JJ Hardy for some of the young talent in the St Louis farm system. Somehow this has gotten to the point of being I like Hardy and you don't or he is/is not a quality shortstop. Then it moved to who was the better/best shortstop in MLB. What remains is the Orioles will not be looking for another shortstop when the time comes to move JJ Hardy. Machado may well have more value/upside then any of those named and as far as the Orioles are concerned at a better monetary value then some of the names thrown about.
What we should be addressing is the replacement for Machado a third base IF the time comes to move Hardy. Will any of the in house candidates be a viable option or should we be looking in the St. Louis farm system or outside of the organization? I would think that if the management of the Orioles was to look at trading Hardy that they would have an available replacement player. It could be Schoop or Flaherty. I would hope Betemit never is even thought about and would prefer that he be added to the deal.

Just asking that we try to stay a little on point instead of who likes what player because of what stat or eyeball test they prefer when discussing a player that may very well be an integral part of the 2013 Orioles or what that player would bring in a trade to maintain the ball club for the next four or five years.
thezeroes
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 250
Joined: April 2011
Reputation Score: 38

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #25 by A_K » March 12th, 2013, 8:59 pm

I actually think you've mistaken what is important about this discussion.

There seems to be a group of people who are saying "I think J.J. Hardy is good, therefore I would never support trading him."

That ignores the basis of making a trade, which is that you're attempting to exchange something for something else of equal value.

I personally like Hardy a lot, and think he's a very good and very valuable player. But I would trade him without hesitation if the right deal came along. I would not trade him if we weren't getting equal or lesser value in return. Why is this complicated? People legitimately seem to be saying there's no legitimate conversation that could be had about trading him. That's crazy.

Maybe the return could include a 3B, if your issue is being sure you aren't temporarily weakening the left side of the infield. Or maybe they acquire that piece by some other means. Or maybe the trade occurs after we're already out of the running for this year, and you're comfortable Schoop could play there next year, or that they could acquire someone else before next year.

The question at hand now is, would you trade Hardy if a sufficiently valuable package was offered at some point this season? Any reasonable person would say yes.
A_K
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 608
Joined: April 2011
Reputation Score: 43

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #26 by thezeroes » March 12th, 2013, 9:19 pm

A_K wrote:There seems to be a group of people who are saying "I think J.J. Hardy is good, therefore I would never support trading him."

This should never be a question for any team for any player. All players are tradable for the right price and anyone that can not come to grips with that will constantly find themselves heart broke.

A_K wrote:The question at hand now is, would you trade Hardy if a sufficiently valuable package was offered at some point this season?


Yes you trade Hardy if the return helps your club both short and long term. The goal is to win games and if the return for Hardy causes this to be an issue either because it was insufficient in terms of the present or future then you may give pause to the idea. IF the Orioles fall out of the race early enough to maximize the return for a Hardy, Hammel, Johnson or Jurrjens (just to name a few) then I would expect the return to benefit the ballclub in 2014. If your return is not to benefit the team in 2014 then you start adding in the core players as trade bait ( Markakis, Chen, Wieters, Jones etc...) to maximize the future after 2014.
thezeroes
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 250
Joined: April 2011
Reputation Score: 38

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #27 by ofahn » March 12th, 2013, 10:06 pm

thezeroes wrote:This should never be a question for any team for any player. All players are tradable for the right price and anyone that can not come to grips with that will constantly find themselves heart broke.



Yes you trade Hardy if the return helps your club both short and long term. The goal is to win games and if the return for Hardy causes this to be an issue either because it was insufficient in terms of the present or future then you may give pause to the idea. IF the Orioles fall out of the race early enough to maximize the return for a Hardy, Hammel, Johnson or Jurrjens (just to name a few) then I would expect the return to benefit the ballclub in 2014. If your return is not to benefit the team in 2014 then you start adding in the core players as trade bait ( Markakis, Chen, Wieters, Jones etc...) to maximize the future after 2014.


Again, well said. POINTS!
User avatar
ofahn
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 4399
Joined: May 2011
Reputation Score: 85

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #28 by osforlife » March 13th, 2013, 6:39 pm

I like JJ Hardy and I believe he is a valuable contributor to this team. He provides substantial amounts of great defense and homeruns, especially for his position. That being said, one cannot simply say a player is off-limits because he is a positive player for one's team. If a greater need arises or terrific potential value is being received, then no player is off-limits is the return is at least equal to what one is giving up.

On to another topic, one commenter said that JJ Hardy is the best shortstop in the American League. That opinion is crazy. I named off six shortstops that I believe are better than JJ Hardy and went on to prove a certain shortstop is more valuable than Hardy; which is in no way saying JJ Hardy isn't valuable or isn't good. He is good, they are just specifics at his position that are more valuable.

With that out of the way, whether or not JJ Hardy is traded before his contract is up, we have to find fillers for 2B and 3B. After this year, Casilla will likely be gone and Roberts will likely be gone. Hopefully Schoop is ready to play 2B by Opening Day 2014 or shortly after that; that is a big risk however. He is still raw and has a lot to work on. Some say he will grow out of the position; we'll see. His play at 2B is more beneficiary to the Orioles at the moment than playing at 3B. For 3B, it looks like Manny Machado will patrol the hot corner for at least the beginning of 2013, potentially up to the end of 2014. After that, hopefully he will move to shortstop. This is why I am really for trading for a Castellanos, or Rendon, or some prospect of that nature. Nick Delmonico is the closet thing to a 3B prospect in our system, but he is years away, if he even will play that position. It seems like if would be perfect timing for either Rendon or Castellanos, as they could spend one year at AA and one year at AAA, to be ready for the majors by 2015.
User avatar
osforlife
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1621
Joined: October 2011
Location: Southern Maryland
Reputation Score: 59

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #29 by mikezpen » March 16th, 2013, 4:32 pm

Hardy's flat-out not hitting. What's he... 1-for-19 or something after a bum season in 2012? Hope he's ok.
mikezpen
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 250
Joined: June 2012
Reputation Score: 11

Re: The Cardinals should eventually have interest in JJ Hardy

PostPost #30 by osforlife » March 16th, 2013, 8:05 pm

mikezpen wrote:Hardy's flat-out not hitting. What's he... 1-for-19 or something after a bum season in 2012? Hope he's ok.

I usually don't put any input towards spring training statistics, but his lack of productive hitting is a bit eye opening.
User avatar
osforlife
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1621
Joined: October 2011
Location: Southern Maryland
Reputation Score: 59


PreviousNext

Return to Baltimore Orioles

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests

cron