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Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #106 by A_K » March 7th, 2013, 7:52 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:

Let's see Peralta or JJ. I've made up my mind no matter what zips thinks. Please enough with the zips stuff. I can't look into the future and either can a computer program.


Fantastic job refusing to engage the conversation.

You'll notice that I acknowledge Hardy is better than Peralta overall.

You might also be interested in knowing that ZIPS doesn't do anything different than humans: it looks at past performance. That's it. That's all it does.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #107 by Seafordeagles » March 7th, 2013, 8:00 pm

A_K wrote:
Fantastic job refusing to engage the conversation.



You'll notice that I acknowledge Hardy is better than Peralta overall.

You might also be interested in knowing that ZIPS doesn't do anything different than humans: it looks at past performance. That's it. That's all it does.


It's not about refusing to engage the conversation, so don't take it personally. I just think some of these so called "stats" are meaningless to me.

To finalize I think the orioles would be better "right now" keeping JJ at short and Manny at third. Next year I will probably think differently. I think they can win now and I think the future is very bright with Manny at short and Bundy and Gausman in the rotation.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #108 by ofahn » March 7th, 2013, 8:10 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:I think they can win now


That's probably a minority opinion and I hope that DD thinks differently. The future success of our team depends on it.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #109 by Seafordeagles » March 7th, 2013, 8:57 pm

ofahn wrote:
That's probably a minority opinion and I hope that DD thinks differently. The future success of our team depends on it.


Let me see if I understand. Are you saying that you hope DD does NOT want to win now?
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #110 by ofahn » March 7th, 2013, 9:59 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
Let me see if I understand. Are you saying that you hope DD does NOT want to win now?


You actually have to have a team that is CAPABLE of winning now. This team isn't there yet and it would be foolish to add a few meaningless wins NOW instead of adding the pieces that would allow us to win when we're ready. I'm disappointed that you seem unwilling to grasp that.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #111 by Seafordeagles » March 7th, 2013, 10:21 pm

ofahn wrote:
You actually have to have a team that is CAPABLE of winning now. This team isn't there yet and it would be foolish to add a few meaningless wins NOW instead of adding the pieces that would allow us to win when we're ready. I'm disappointed that you seem unwilling to grasp that.


I apologize that I disappointed you. I can't possibly agree with you on this so I'll just move on and won't approach this matter again.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #112 by ofahn » March 7th, 2013, 10:41 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:I can't possibly agree with you on this so I'll just move on and won't approach this matter again.


Fair enough.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #113 by Old Sneakers » March 8th, 2013, 1:35 am

Seafordeagles wrote:
In response to #2 his maximized value to the Orioles "right now" is to play 3rd base.

In response to #4 you just made the defense worse by trading Hardy and replacing him with Manny. Now you have a hole at 3rd base. If you get Castellanos he has been moved to the outfield in Detroit. If you put him at 3rd you create a defensive liability there also.


I'm with Seafordeagles here.

As for Jim Johnsons value. I do not want to put the man down, but no he is not a prototypical closer. Ground balls and double plays are his strength. As for the role of closer. Typically the good ones have 2-4 years in that role. Yes, some last longer but it's not that often. Many failed starting pitchers go onto become first rate relievers because the change up is less than stellar. That said you do need a closer. We have a couple guys that "might" do well in that role. However, to move Johnson at this time the return would have to be very good indeed in my opinion. More than just one ML player. You would also need a prospect. If you also want to deal JJ Hardy you are now talking Blockbuster type trade. The proposed returns would not be enough.

On a side note I think anointing the Orioles as one of the best left side infields as among the best might be premature. Yes, it looks solid on paper but that's a different designation.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #114 by birdwatcher55 » March 8th, 2013, 7:06 am

A_K wrote:
1. The actual value of a save.
2. The importance of maximizing Machado's value by moving him to SS.
3. The level of success Porcello has experienced in his career.
4. The amount of difference a good infield can make for a ground-ball pitcher.


My thoughts:
-- You really think the Orioles would have done what they did last year without Johnson??? You need to think long and hard about that one.
-- Machado will fill out and from scouting reports I have read on him indicates he will be a third baseman in 2-3 years if not sooner.
-- Porcello is a .500 career pitcher who has a tremendous amount of innings on his arm at a young age. He is a major risk IMHO. That said I wouldn't mind taking a chance on him but it would have to be with someone other than Hardy and Johnson. If you would want to do something like Arrieta and a marginal prospect I would talk.
-- Again my problem here is giving up Hardy, a Gold Glove calibar shortstop with pop. How many of those guys are around?? I just don't see much value in bringing in a journeyman SS, marginal 3B prospect and a groundball pitcher with a ton of innings on his young arm. To break up your infield continuity for this package is just totally ludicrous.. 8-)
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #115 by A_K » March 8th, 2013, 3:17 pm

birdwatcher55 wrote:
My thoughts:
-- You really think the Orioles would have done what they did last year without Johnson??? You need to think long and hard about that one.
-- Machado will fill out and from scouting reports I have read on him indicates he will be a third baseman in 2-3 years if not sooner.
-- Porcello is a .500 career pitcher who has a tremendous amount of innings on his arm at a young age. He is a major risk IMHO. That said I wouldn't mind taking a chance on him but it would have to be with someone other than Hardy and Johnson. If you would want to do something like Arrieta and a marginal prospect I would talk.
-- Again my problem here is giving up Hardy, a Gold Glove calibar shortstop with pop. How many of those guys are around?? I just don't see much value in bringing in a journeyman SS, marginal 3B prospect and a groundball pitcher with a ton of innings on his young arm. To break up your infield continuity for this package is just totally ludicrous.. 8-)


1. I do not think the Orioles would have won 93 games and made the playoffs without Johnson last year.
2. The Orioles should make every effort to keep Machado at SS. If he outgrows the position, so be it, but that should be considered a less desirable scenario.
3. There's no such thing as intelligent analysis of a pitcher that includes a mention of his W-L record. Porcello hasn't shown any more risk for injury than any other generic pitcher. In fact, just the opposite.
4. I'm a big fan of Hardy. I'd love to live in a world where we could improve our team without giving up anything of value.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #116 by Seafordeagles » March 8th, 2013, 3:40 pm

A_K wrote:There's no such thing as intelligent analysis of a pitcher that includes a mention of his W-L record.


Maybe you should tell that to all the 20 game winners that their won/loss means nothing. I'm sure the pros would differ.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #117 by A_K » March 8th, 2013, 4:03 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
Maybe you should tell that to all the 20 game winners that their won/loss means nothing. I'm sure the pros would differ.


I'm sure you're right, some pros would definitely latch on to the factually incorrect notion that W-L record is a good measure of a pitcher's performance.

Luckily, we don't have to rely on their opinion. We can measure the metric's relevance objectively to come to an accurate conclusion. And the results are in: it's useless.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #118 by Seafordeagles » March 8th, 2013, 4:25 pm

A_K wrote:
I'm sure you're right, some pros would definitely latch on to the factually incorrect notion that W-L record is a good measure of a pitcher's performance.

Luckily, we don't have to rely on their opinion. We can measure the metric's relevance objectively to come to an accurate conclusion. And the results are in: it's useless.


It's useless that's for sure. Anyone that doesn't agree with your cyberstats or mentions "old school" stats are prime targets.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #119 by A_K » March 8th, 2013, 4:31 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
It's useless that's for sure. Anyone that doesn't agree with your cyberstats or mentions "old school" stats are prime targets.


Some things just aren't a difference of opinion. Is it worth trading Johnson for Porcello? That's a difference of opinion. Reasonable people can disagree, though they should be prepared to support their argument with evidence.

Do saves and wins tell us anything valuable about pitcher performance? Not a matter of opinion. The rank stupidity of those stats can be demonstrated with numbers or logic, whichever you prefer.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #120 by Jordan Tuwiner » March 8th, 2013, 6:53 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
It's useless that's for sure. Anyone that doesn't agree with your cyberstats or mentions "old school" stats are prime targets.

A pitcher who secures 20 wins in a season should certainly see it as an accomplishment. But, as A_K said, it tells us nothing about their performance or talent.
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