rudyrooster wrote:Reality is that none of us KNOW what to expect from BRob as the team moves forward in 2013. Maybe he IS finally healthy enough again to regain some of his previous form. Then again, he may well "flame out" in short order. We just don't know and that's the reality of this situation. All those whom claim they know what's gonna happen with BRob are either just overly optimistic or on the negative side are "grinding an axe" for whatever reasons. I wish him all the best this spring and upcoming season. For the team's sake, I hope he returns this season to become a positive contributor to another playoff run...that's my take.
No one is saying that we can predict the future... in fact I've specifically said just the opposite multiple times.
But you're stating a false equivalence when you claim that "reality" of the situation is those with high expectations and those with low expectations are equally clueless. That's simply not true.
We have some information at our disposal. It tells us that Brian Roberts
is no longer good. That doesn't mean it's impossible for him to exceed those reasonable expectations. And it doesn't mean someone has an "axe to grind" if they point out that it would be an historical and statistical anomaly for him to do so.
Your post is a straw man argument combined with a false equivalence. It's a straw man because no one is saying they know with absolute certainty what Roberts is going to do this season. And it's a false equivalence because it simply isn't true that anyone with a positive expectation has the same amount of evidence for their position as someone with a negative expectation.
The "reality" of the situation is that there's ample evidence to suspect that Roberts will have a bad season, though saying so is not the same as saying we can be certain that he is going to have a bad season. See the distinction? It's a matter of probability.
There's no reason I should have to say this, but I will, since there seems to be some sort of bizarre belief that the one could only believe Roberts' career is over if they're a "hater," as opposed to someone who looks at available evidence and draws the most logical conclusion. Anyway: Brian Roberts is one of my favorite Orioles I've ever watched, and I'd be delighted to see him have a good season.
I should also point out that there's no contradiction between drawing kne's expectations from sound statistical analysis, and simultaneously rooting for a different outcome. Nothing about being informed prevents you from also behaving like a fan.