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Is Brian Roberts Back???

Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #31 by Seafordeagles » March 5th, 2013, 4:43 pm

I'll say this much about Roberts. If he gets a significant injury or just flat out tanks. I will be the first person here to tell A_k and O'sforlife that they were right in their assumption about Roberts, but right now I think he will be fine.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #32 by A_K » March 5th, 2013, 4:43 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:Like they said on the game last week. If Brian can come close to what he's done when he's healthy it would be like signing a very good free agent. If I remember correctly there weren't any better options in free agency for 2nd baseman this year.


This requires ignoring two things that can't be ignored: 1. serious injuries tend to have lasting effects on players, and 2. Roberts is now 35 years old, so even if he had remained healthy it should be expected that his skill levels would have deteriorated from his prime.

Saying "getting the old Brian Roberts back is just like signing a major free agent" is just voicing a random fantasy while ignoring the way things happen in the real world. The old Brian Roberts is never coming back. It's time to accept reality.
Last edited by A_K on March 5th, 2013, 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #33 by Seafordeagles » March 5th, 2013, 4:45 pm

A_K wrote:
This requires ignoring two things that can't be ignored: 1. serious injuries tend to have lasting effects on players, and 2. Roberts is now 35 years old, so even if he had remained healthy should be expected to see deterioration in all of his skill levels.


Please read post #31.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #34 by A_K » March 5th, 2013, 5:03 pm

ofahn wrote:
I have a hard time giving any credence to projections for a player coming back from an injury AND I was under the impression that Kelly Johnson was somewhat defensively challenged. Does anyone have stats that say something different?


I have a hard time giving credence to projections for players returning from injury too. But I have an even harder time just saying "what if he suddenly returns to his previous performance level, even though he's 35 years old and hasn't played well in four years." That's just a daydream.

Kelly Johnson's defense has been worth 1.8 wins over the course of his seven-year career, according to Baseball Reference.

That works out to 0.7 (2005), 0.2 (2007), -0.4 (2008), -0.2 (2009), 0.3 (2010), 0.5 (2011), 0.8 (2012).

Brian Roberts' defense has been worth 4.7 wins over the course of his twelve-year career, also according to BR.

That's -0.3 (2001), 0.2 (2002), 1.4 (2003), 0.1 (2004), 1.9 (2005), 1.1 (2006), 0.4 (2007), 0.5 (2008), -0.4 (2009), 0.1 (2010), 0.2 (2011), -0.6 (2012).

That means Roberts has been a bad defender along with a bad hitter in each season after 2008. It also means he's been worse than Johnson in each of those seasons. And it's downright terrifying to think about how bad he was at defense last season, given how few games he played while putting up such an ugly defensive number.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #35 by A_K » March 5th, 2013, 5:04 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
Please read post #31.


That's fine. Just now that your opinion is based on blind faith, not evidence.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #36 by Seafordeagles » March 5th, 2013, 5:12 pm

A_K wrote:
That's fine. Just now that your opinion is based on blind faith, not evidence.


Nobody has evidence because you "have to play the game" and please no more zip quotes and war quotes. Projections mean absolutely nothing, these stat projections are totally blind faith.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #37 by ofahn » March 5th, 2013, 5:21 pm

A_K wrote:That means Roberts has been a bad defender along with a bad hitter in each season after 2008. It also means he's been worse than Johnson in each of those seasons. And it's downright terrifying to think about how bad he was at defense last season, given how few games he played while putting up such an ugly defensive number.


For argument's sake let's say that those stats MIGHT predict this year's performance. Casilla and Flaherty will be better defenders than Roberts, Johnson, or most of the other 2B we could have obtained over the winter. I would rather have good defense at 2B before the extra few OPS points of a Kelly Johnson.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #38 by A_K » March 5th, 2013, 5:28 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
Nobody has evidence because you "have to play the game" and please no more zip quotes and war quotes. Projections mean absolutely nothing, these stat projections are totally blind faith.


Projections are not gospel, no one can predict the future, and WAR is not a perfect stat. I've said this twice so far today.

But to say that we don't know anything, that projections mean "absolutely nothing" and that projections are "totally blind faith" is not only demonstrably wrong but also willfully ignorant. Feel free to live in the dark, but don't pretend that everyone is blind as well.

If I smoke the rest of my life, I might not get lung cancer. But we do know-- for a fact-- that smoking increases your risk of getting cancer.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #39 by A_K » March 5th, 2013, 5:32 pm

ofahn wrote:For argument's sake let's say that those stats MIGHT predict this year's performance.


Projections aren't meant to predict this year's performance. They're meant to give us a sense of reasonable expectations. Every player's projections contain a sizable margin of error to both the positive and negative side.

ofahn wrote:Casilla and Flaherty will be better defenders than Roberts, Johnson, or most of the other 2B we could have obtained over the winter. I would rather have good defense at 2B before the extra few OPS points of a Kelly Johnson.


I'd rather have the player that best combines hitting, fielding and base running to provide his team with the most positive value over the course of the season. Based on all of the evidence that's available to us, Kelly Johnson is that player. (Which does not by any stretch of the imagination mean that he's guaranteed to have the best season, just that he has the best chance to have the best season.)
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #40 by Seafordeagles » March 5th, 2013, 5:42 pm

A_K wrote:
Projections are not gospel, no one can predict the future, and WAR is not a perfect stat. I've said this twice so far today.

But to say that we don't know anything, that projections mean "absolutely nothing" and that projections are "totally blind faith" is not only demonstrably wrong but also willfully ignorant. Feel free to live in the dark, but don't pretend that everyone is blind as well.

If I smoke the rest of my life, I might not get lung cancer. But we do know-- for a fact-- that smoking increases your risk of getting cancer.


The blind faith quote was because you said that to me. I guess I'll move my ignorant self on..................
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #41 by A_K » March 5th, 2013, 5:48 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
The blind faith quote was because you said that to me. I guess I'll move my ignorant self on..................


I understand what you meant. I just want to point out that only one of us is openly disavowing the relevance of past performance in projecting future performance (which is an act of willful ignorance).
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #42 by OriolesRedskins28 » March 5th, 2013, 7:13 pm

The "old Brian Roberts" would be in the .290/.370/440 range with solid defense and speed. He's 35. There is NO way he comes close to that line. Best case scenario to me would be in the .250-.260/.330//420 range with average defense and decent speed. I think he can do that if he stays healthy but as most have stated that is not all that likely. I like that he's had a semi normal offseason to prepare and it's not like he's had a lot of wear and tear on his body the past few years because he hasn't played. He deserves a roster spot but I wouldn't let the leash stretch too long. Letting him go will be difficult and I hope he stays healthy and relatively productive so that decision won't have to be made during the season.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #43 by osforlife » March 5th, 2013, 7:47 pm

The probability of Brian Roberts getting hurt and/or being unproductive is much higher than Brian Roberts staying on the field and returning to his old form and anything close to it. That is not a good thought on a team that is supposed to be competitive. I will say, his contract did put us in a tough spot. It isn't my money, but it would be tough to watch $10,000,000 burn. So, it was good that they gave him a chance to prove his doubters wrong. But, we should have acquired better back-up options, in case of the likely event that Roberts will be on the DL or hitting .220 with no speed. Now, I will be the first to apologize to all the Robert's believers and Roberts himself via Twitter, but for right now, I see a 35 year old player who based his game off of speed that he almost certainly doesn't have now, that has played in 56 games the past two years, producing a -1.0 WAR.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #44 by rudyrooster » March 5th, 2013, 7:53 pm

Reality is that none of us KNOW what to expect from BRob as the team moves forward in 2013. Maybe he IS finally healthy enough again to regain some of his previous form. Then again, he may well "flame out" in short order. We just don't know and that's the reality of this situation. All those whom claim they know what's gonna happen with BRob are either just overly optimistic or on the negative side are "grinding an axe" for whatever reasons. I wish him all the best this spring and upcoming season. For the team's sake, I hope he returns this season to become a positive contributor to another playoff run...that's my take.
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Re: Is Brian Roberts Back???

PostPost #45 by ofahn » March 5th, 2013, 8:27 pm

OriolesRedskins28 wrote: Best case scenario to me would be in the .250-.260/.330//420 range


Even that would be an improvement over JJ Hardy in the #2 hole.
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