ONE Week To Pitchers And Catchers Report. Who's Excited?

[ofahn]

Based on some of the comments on this forum I believe that I'm more confident of the level of success we'll have this year than some others.

Who agrees (or disagrees) with me, and WHY?

[Rising O's]

My excitement level is dependent upon what the Orioles will do with Britton, Matusz, Arrieta and to a lesser extent Tillman. The starting rotation could provide us with a solid group of pitchers all capable of being # 2s and 3s. But we could see some fall back for Hammel, Chen and Gonzalez as the MLs is all about adjustments. So hopefully our depth guys are prepared and ready to contribute if someone struggles. Our wildcard is Jurrjens, if healthy and any delivery issues are corrected he will be a steal and put us right there for 90+ wins.

[A_K]

I'm extremely excited for the start of the season. Can't wait. I've been scouring the Internet for enough material to satisfy my thirst for baseball news, especially any shred of information on the Orioles.

I don't know whether I can agree or disagree with you're statement though. I'm probably less confident than you on how good the Orioles are going to be this year. I think there's a pretty small chance that they're a playoff team. But that doesn't diminish my excitement very much at all. And if they had gone out and signed Hamilton and Grienke and traded for Stanton, I'd think we had a better chance of making the playoffs, but I don't think it would increase my excitement much at all. I just don't think my excitement for baseball has much correlation with my expectations for the Orioles season.

[steve]

I cant wait til MASN televises games again. Now the O's are good. Theres no reason why MASN cant televise at least 14 spring training games

[Old Sneakers]

My excitement level is dependent upon what the Orioles will do with Britton, Matusz, Arrieta and to a lesser extent Tillman. The starting rotation could provide us with a solid group of pitchers all capable of being # 2s and 3s. But we could see some fall back for Hammel, Chen and Gonzalez as the MLs is all about adjustments. So hopefully our depth guys are prepared and ready to contribute if someone struggles. Our wildcard is Jurrjens, if healthy and any delivery issues are corrected he will be a steal and put us right there for 90+ wins.

This pretty much mirrors where I am at the moment. Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and Tillman are foremost on my mind in Orioles land. There is so much talent there... Will we see it?

I think we are a .500 club. But if things fall the right way for us we can better that mark. Possibly better than last season. I've so many questions I am wanting answered at the major league level. Two times that in the minors. Yes, I am excited. So many story lines and possibilities.

[thezeroes]

I cant wait til MASN televises games again. Now the O's are good. Theres no reason why MASN cant televise at least 14 spring training games

From Roch's Blog: http://www.masnsports.com/masn_news_inf ... ioles.html
MASN HD will televise six exhibition games, all from Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, beginning with the Monday, Feb. 25 clash with the New York Yankees at 1 p.m.
MASN HD also will air the Thursday, March 7 game against the Toronto Blue Jays at 1 p.m.; the Thursday, March 14 game against the Tampa Bay Rays at 1 p.m.; the Sunday, March 17 game against the Minnesota Twins at 1 p.m.; the Saturday, March 23 game against the Philadelphia Phillies at 1 p.m.; and the Wednesday, March 27 game against the Yankees at 7 p.m.

The afternoon games will be replayed at 7 p.m., in case you don't have a television at work and an understanding boss.
The radio schedule can be found hear: http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roc ... games.html

[ofahn]

Theres no reason why MASN cant televise at least 14 spring training games

It's a matter of finances. They aren't going to pay what it would cost their broadcast crew to travel.

[ofahn]

we could see some fall back for Hammel, Chen and Gonzalez as the MLs is all about adjustments.

In theory I would agree with you, but I believe that all of them went through an adjustment period towards the end of last season and came out the other side just as effective. In fact, you could argue that their true test of fire was going into the last few critical series with teams that HAD to beat us to make it to the playoffs. All of them would have extensively scouted us and that would include these three SPs. Each of them continued to be effective. IMO that's a VERY positive sign.

hopefully our depth guys are prepared and ready to contribute if someone struggles.

I see that as our real strength this year and the reason I believe we will be AT LEAST a winning team.

Our wildcard is Jurrjens, if healthy and any delivery issues are corrected he will be a steal and put us right there for 90+ wins.

I see Jurrjens as part of that depth. If he turns out be anything more than that, so much the better.

[ofahn]

I think there's a pretty small chance that they're a playoff team.

Why do you feel that way?

if they had gone out and signed Hamilton and Grienke and traded for Stanton, I'd think we had a better chance of making the playoffs

I'm sorry, but I would have considered signing those players for what they finally were paid as disaster of Biblical proportions. Hamilton MIGHT have been an asset this year and next, but that's NOT a guarantee and he most certainly will be a bad contract the last three years. Greinke's contract was LUDICROUS. He's had issues with pressure and bringing him into an environment where he's being counted on to deliver at least a pennant may be more than he can handle. We'll see if he can handle the pressure in LA.

I saw a Stanton trade for the 2013 season to be about a zero sum transaction, and maybe less than that in the out years. It's not that his price was unreasonable, it's that WE DIDN'T HAVE THE SURPLUS TO MAKE THE TRADE. He would have cost at least Bundy, Machado, and Schoop; and maybe Eduardo Rodriguez. This year we would have been creating one hole (3b) to fill another. In the out years we would gutted our farm system to fill one position.

If he's still on the market this fall, and we develop enough surplus prospects that would interest MIami, I would be all for making the trade.

[ofahn]

From Roch's Blog: http://www.masnsports.com/masn_news_inf ... ioles.html
MASN HD will televise six exhibition games, all from Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, beginning with the Monday, Feb. 25 clash with the New York Yankees at 1 p.m.
MASN HD also will air the Thursday, March 7 game against the Toronto Blue Jays at 1 p.m.; the Thursday, March 14 game against the Tampa Bay Rays at 1 p.m.; the Sunday, March 17 game against the Minnesota Twins at 1 p.m.; the Saturday, March 23 game against the Philadelphia Phillies at 1 p.m.; and the Wednesday, March 27 game against the Yankees at 7 p.m.

The afternoon games will be replayed at 7 p.m., in case you don't have a television at work and an understanding boss.
The radio schedule can be found hear: http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roc ... games.html

Thanks for the post. POINTS!

[thezeroes]

While doing a little statistical research I found the following trend since Buck Showalter has taken the reigns as manager.

This is the comparison of the last 6 years in the games played with the Orioles pitchers giving up 4 or less runs in a game. I then looked up the winning percentage in those games. I then asked myself if this type of trend could be seen throughout MLB and though not totally conclusive it does seem that at least in 2012 most of the playoff participants had the best record in games that were decided by their staffs keeping the opposition to four or less runs and winning those games.

2012 95 Games 78 W 17 L 82.10%
2011 76 Games 57 W 19 L 75.00%
2010 84 Games 51 W 33 L 60.70%
2009 72 Games 48 W 24 L 66.70%
2008 68 Games 46 W 22 L 67.60%
2007 79 Games 54 W 25 L 68.40%

As you can see the percentage of these game won has increased under Buck and I do believe it is directly correlated to his Better use of the bullpen.

These were the top ten in Win Percentage of games that the teams pitching staff gave up four or less runs in a game.
BAL 95 Games 82.10% Win Percentage
SFG 98 Games 80.60% Win Percentage
NYY 102 Games 79.40% Win Percentage
TEX 99 Games 77.80% Win Percentage
OAK 109 Games 77.10% Win Percentage
LAA 94 Games 76.60% Win Percentage
WSN 115 Games 76.50% Win Percentage
CIN 110 Games 74.50% Win Percentage
ATL 106 Games 74.50% Win Percentage
STL 101 Games 74.30% Win Percentage


All but the Angels were in the playoffs.

If nothing else can be found in this it is that Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter are giving the Orioles a better chance to win by :
1) Keeping the Bullpen Fresh
2) Keeping enough arms ready to do the above
3) Improving the defense to keep runs at a minimum
4) Having enough offense to generate at least 4 or more runs per game.

[A_K]

Why do you feel that way?



I'm sorry, but I would have considered signing those players for what they finally were paid as disaster of Biblical proportions. Hamilton MIGHT have been an asset this year and next, but that's NOT a guarantee and he most certainly will be a bad contract the last three years. Greinke's contract was LUDICROUS. He's had issues with pressure and bringing him into an environment where he's being counted on to deliver at least a pennant may be more than he can handle. We'll see if he can handle the pressure in LA.

I saw a Stanton trade for the 2013 season to be about a zero sum transaction, and maybe less than that in the out years. It's not that his price was unreasonable, it's that WE DIDN'T HAVE THE SURPLUS TO MAKE THE TRADE. He would have cost at least Bundy, Machado, and Schoop; and maybe Eduardo Rodriguez. This year we would have been creating one hole (3b) to fill another. In the out years we would gutted our farm system to fill one position.

If he's still on the market this fall, and we develop enough surplus prospects that would interest MIami, I would be all for making the trade.

You misunderstand me (or I poorly expressed myself). My intention was to say that while I think signing/trading for those players would have made it more likely that we made the playoffs this season, I nonetheless would not have wanted them to make those moves.

I think you can see where I'm coming from. Essentially: maximizing the odds of making the playoffs this season isn't the most important thing in the world, and similarly, the team's likelihood of making the playoffs in this season is not at the center of my interest or lack of interest in the coming season.

As for the team's outlook for this season, and why I consider us a long shot for the playoffs. I think we overperformed last year in a way that cannot be expected to be repeated, and that isn't even close to mitigated by whatever hypothetical improvements we might have from players returning from injury or improving on their own performance. So, I suspect we'll regress to something resembling our true talent level from last year (85 wins or so).

On paper, I'd say we're the worst team in the division. I think there's a better chance we finish in last place than there is that we make the playoffs.

But, I'd like to reiterate, that I consider myself optimistic about the state of the Orioles generally speaking.

[ofahn]

While doing a little statistical research I found the following trend since Buck Showalter has taken the reigns as manager.

First, this is quality research and deserves a POINT!

Second, when I read the first line I immediately thought that it was Buck that made the difference and then I read you second line and saw that you concurred.

GREAT POST!

[ofahn]

You misunderstand me (or I poorly expressed myself). My intention was to say that while I think signing/trading for those players would have made it more likely that we made the playoffs this season, I nonetheless would not have wanted them to make those moves.

First, I'd like to say that this is another quality post on your part. I always enjoy the way you EXPLAIN your POV. I don't always agree with it, but I respect the logic that you use to make your point.

Second, I now better understand the point you were making and I agree with you.

I think you can see where I'm coming from. Essentially: maximizing the odds of making the playoffs this season isn't the most important thing in the world, and similarly, the team's likelihood of making the playoffs in this season is not at the center of my interest or lack of interest in the coming season.

ABSOLUTELY agree.

As for the team's outlook for this season, and why I consider us a long shot for the playoffs. I think we overperformed last year in a way that cannot be expected to be repeated, and that isn't even close to mitigated by whatever hypothetical improvements we might have from players returning from injury or improving on their own performance. So, I suspect we'll regress to something resembling our true talent level from last year (85 wins or so).

I still see this division as ripe for the picking. I don't see any team as making "sure thing" improvements and, YES, I'm aware of what the Blue Jays have done.

On paper, I'd say we're the worst team in the division. I think there's a better chance we finish in last place than there is that we make the playoffs.

I completely disagree with this. I believe that we're better than Boston (IMO they had a HORRIBLE winter) and I can see many ways that Toronto could become a putrid pile of disappointment. I see us anywhere from first to third at the end of the season.

It should go without saying that your post is worthy of another POINT.

[birdwatcher55]

I'm still riding a Ravens' high here and will need a few weeks to make the transition to baseball