Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

[birdwatcher55]

Do you see saves as a good way to evaluate and determine a reliever's value?

Partially yes. I think it's a big indicator because you are paying someone to close out a game and preserve a win. So in that regard, I'm looking at blown saves as well

[A_K]

I'd be comfortable evaluating relievers without ever again looking at saves or blown saves. Useless statistic. Tells me nothing.

[birdwatcher55]

So how would you evaluate a closer otherwise?? Number of perfect innings?? Bottom line is the bottom line: did he get you the save and the win???

[A_K]

So how would you evaluate a closer otherwise?? Number of perfect innings?? Bottom line is the bottom line: did he get you the save and the win???

I would evaluate closers the same way I evaluate all other pitchers: runs allowed, strikeouts and walks.

[birdwatcher55]

I think ERA for a closer is a bit misleading in that you could have a bad outing or two and your ERA will balloon. I'm looking at two numbers: saves and blown saves. Is the guy I'm putting in there getting the save 90-95% of the time???

[Seafordeagles]

No way Dan Duquette moves a 50 save reliever unless someone is SERIOUSLY overpaying

I'm with you on this one. One thing I've noticed when Jim Johnson has blown a save he wants the ball right away to make amends for his bad outing or bad luck. One game Jim gave up the tying run and went right back out the next inning because he wanted to. He ended up getting the win.

We know how Jim reacts after giving up a save. We don't know how O'Day and others will react. I think we're very close. If we can get into 2014 when the young guns are ready and with our current pitching staff virtually intact, then it could be very special.

[Seafordeagles]

Little off topic but the nationals just signed Soriano for 2 years 28 mil.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/n ... riano.html

[A_K]

I think ERA for a closer is a bit misleading in that you could have a bad outing or two and your ERA will balloon. I'm looking at two numbers: saves and blown saves. Is the guy I'm putting in there getting the save 90-95% of the time???

There's no statistic more misleading than saves, which claims to measure how a pitcher does in high leverage situations but in practice doesn't even come close to doing so. A plurality of save situations are actually extremely low leverage situations.

[birdwatcher55]

I guess we disagree here. No problem

[birdwatcher55]

I like JJ's mindset as well and that is one big reason why I wouldn't deal him. He was born to save games

[birdwatcher55]

Little off topic but the nationals just signed Soriano for 2 years 28 mil.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/n ... riano.html

Wow!! The Nats just dropped a lot of coin

[OriolesRedskins28]

What the Nationals just payed for Soriano is ABSURD. I would hesitate to call any move the franchise that gave Jayson Werth a 7 year $126 million contract an intelligent financial decision, nor do I think that accurately represents the market for a proven closer (if that IS the current market for a proven closer that just gives the Orioles MORE reason to trade Johnson while the market overvalues him).

Saves/blown saves have value in evaluating a closer but they should not be the primary metric taken into consideration in that evaluation. Some much better indicators of FUTURE success for any pitcher are whiff rates, GB %, BB %, HR rates, etc. Jim Johnson does quite well in all of those categories but not to the point where he should essentially be untouchable. It is widely accepted that relievers are the most volatile commodity in baseball and considering the O's outstanding bullpen depth, Johnson should be considered a good trade candidate. Not saying they should get rid of him at all costs but his value is probably the highest it will ever be at this point taking into consideration his recent success, age, and contract.

Jon Morosi just posted a nice piece mentioning some good reasons as to why he believes the Orioles SHOULD trade Johnson for Porcello if the opportunity presented itself. http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbb ... o/12661444

[Seafordeagles]

Then if Johnson's at his highest value than Porcello is not nearly enough IMO. The Tigers moved Castellanos to the outfield last year because he was blocked at 3rd base by Cabrera. I'm sure he can still play 3rd base.

If trade talks were initiated the minimum I would ask for is Porcello and Castellanos . Porcello lost his spot in the rotation and Castellanos is what he is, and that's a prospect who may not make the adjustment to the major leagues. One other thing and don't take offense I still want to keep Jim Johnson.

[ofahn]

What the Nationals just payed for Soriano is ABSURD.

I'm convinced that Boras has some REALLY interesting photos of someone in the Lerner family.

[Seafordeagles]

I wonder if there are any teams that completely stay away from players that Boras represents.