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How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #16 by thezeroes » December 30th, 2012, 3:19 pm

Overall I would give the Orioles a B in their off season moves. I am more than impressed with Dan Duquette's ability to not bow under fan/media pressure to make a move for the sake of doing so.

The biggest improvement was not mortgaging the future on long term contracts. The MiLB signings and organizational depth will be the hallmark moves for the 2013 Orioles going forward. The way Dan and Buck manipulate a roster through out the 2012 campaign will again be what will keep the Orioles in the hunt for a playoff appearance or the Division. The depth of the roster may lend itself to a July/August trade. The departure of the free agent class is equivalent to addition by subtraction. Finally it will be the return of the injured players and the overall development of those in the upper minors that also have been plagued by injuries.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #17 by ofahn » December 30th, 2012, 3:21 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
What are you talking about??? I never gave my opinion on any ACT whatsoever.

It's time to move on man. You pick apart just about every one of my posts. I try to come here for some pleasure but you have made it very unpleasant for me.

After last night I thought I wouldn't quote you anymore and I tried that but damn if you don't always find something wrong with what I post even when I give my random thoughts. It's almost like you want to make it personal.


I'm beginning to wonder if you just don't understand what other people post. I used about 1,400 words to explain how this off season is virtually identical to our last off season. You know, the off season that turned a perennial loser into a play off team. Based on your response to that I understand your opinion is because that method was very successful once it won't be again; and you offer this opinion without a shred of explanation as to why. So, am I to believe that you don't understand what you have read or that you just wanted to express your opinion without going through the inconvenience of actually reading what someone else has written.

This is an excellent forum to express your POV, but MOST of the members show the respect and consideration to their fellow members of explaining WHY they disagree (some in great detail and with lots of stats) instead of just saying, in effect, "you're wrong and I'm right". That was the impression you gave me so, after I tried to get you to explain WHY you disagreed, I tried asking the questions for you.

All of that was BEFORE I had the opportunity to ask you, in response to your statement,

To me the question is are we better right now than when the season ended


why you believe that the return of a healthy Markakis and Hammel as well as the emergence of Machado and Hunter in the bullpen would not make the 2013 team better than the one that finished 2012.

If you want to be a respected member of this forum show some respect to others. If you disagree explain WHY (in detail is always appreciated) and don't just criticize. Intelligent discourse is what makes the engine run.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #18 by Seafordeagles » December 30th, 2012, 3:25 pm

Thank you.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #19 by Jordan Tuwiner » December 30th, 2012, 6:07 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:There has not been a lot of improvements made. Remember we had McLouth when the season ended. The main pick up was Casilla (who may or may not be needed if Roberts can play). To this point I would rate the off season a D grade. The other minor deals I really have no confidence in any of them making an impact, although I once thought Valencia would be a very good player, and he still could.

I understand your reasoning for giving them I D, but I just don't see what they could have done. There is no reason for them to over-pay in a trade or signing, or hand out an insanely long and bulky FA deal.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #20 by Seafordeagles » December 30th, 2012, 7:03 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:I understand your reasoning for giving them I D, but I just don't see what they could have done. There is no reason for them to over-pay in a trade or signing, or hand out an insanely long and bulky FA deal.


I understand what you are saying but the title of the thread was, How would you rate the Orioles' off season so far? Basically what they have done "during the off season" is add Casilla. Therefore I rated the off season "so far" as a D.

Now another poster wants to bring up Markakis, Machado, and Hunter, which has nothing to do with the "off season so far", and not once did I say that they would not be better in 2013 and I think I would like to see where I ever said that. So I guess if I want to be a respected member of this forum I can't give my opinion anymore.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #21 by Jordan Tuwiner » December 30th, 2012, 7:16 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
I understand what you are saying but the title of the thread was, How would you rate the Orioles' off season so far? Basically what they have done "during the off season" is add Casilla. Therefore I rated the off season "so far" as a D.

Now another poster wants to bring up Markakis, Machado, and Hunter, which has nothing to do with the "off season so far", and not once did I say that they would not be better in 2013 and I think I would like to see where I ever said that. So I guess if I want to be a respected member of this forum I can't give my opinion anymore.

I am not sure I see where you were disrespected. Your opinion is welcome and this board is a place where anyone is free to share their thoughts and ideas.

It may be frustrating that all they have done is re-sign Casilla, but what I am asking is what do you think they should have done? Who would you have wanted them to sign? What trade should the O's have made?

If they are not going to get good value I don't see a reason for them to make a move just to make a move. If we're talking about what they've done "during the off season", and you see adding Casilla as nothing compared to other teams, I can see why you believe they should get a D. That's fine. But, the team can expect improvements from players like Machado, Hunter, and a healthy Markakis, which may explain why DD and Buck have not made a big move yet. Perhaps they are counting on improvements from those players.

Compared to other teams, the Orioles' off-season doesn't look as good because they haven't made a huge trade or signed an over-priced FA. But, in terms of what the Orioles' needs are, I think they have everything in place besides maybe a big bat. But, obviously, there was not a deal or player to DD's liking so no move was made.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #22 by A_K » December 30th, 2012, 7:37 pm

A lot of the high-profile players that everyone talked about coming into the offseason got ludicrous contracts that I'm glad the Orioles didn't strike. But deals like those for Dempster, Swisher and Melky Cabrera provided a good chance for surplus value, and would have been great fits for the Orioles. Actually, if those three players got the same deals with the O's that they got with Boston, Cleveland and Toronto, I think the O's would look much more like a team poised to compete for the division. And they wouldn't be anchored to any expensive, long-term contracts likely to restrict them in the future.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #23 by ofahn » December 30th, 2012, 7:42 pm

A_K wrote:deals like those for Dempster, Swisher and Melky Cabrera provided a good chance for surplus value


I would have been happy with any of those players on a ONE year contract, but I have serious concerns about giving them anything longer since it would have been diminishing returns in the out years.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #24 by A_K » December 30th, 2012, 7:47 pm

Virtually any player is acceptable on a one-year contract. But the track records of those three players, IMO, suggest they have a better than average chance of providing surplus value on their respective three-, four- and two-year deals.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #25 by A_K » December 30th, 2012, 8:01 pm

Also, it's worth pointing out from time to time that-- given the current economic environment in Major League Baseball-- that the explicit cost of signing a free agent is overpaying for the player in the contract's out years. You look to gain a competitive advantage by identifying players and salaries that provide surplus value, obviously, but the fundamental, unavoidable reality of the sport is that getting poor value for players at the end of their contracts in exchange for getting great value at the beginning of contracts, especially when a player is cost controlled at the beginning of their careers.

That doesn't mean I advocate the Orioles going out and signing good players for $100 million contracts because that's just the cost of doing business. I don't. However, overpaying for 1-2 players at the ends of their contracts at any given time isn't the end of the world, and even given the fact that long-term contracts eventually result in poorer value, your front office's ultimate job is to identify players and negotiate contracts that mitigate that reality. In my opinion, the Red Sox, Indians and Blue Jays did their jobs well in the deals that gave them Dempster, Swisher and Cabrera.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #26 by mikezpen » January 2nd, 2013, 1:28 pm

An E+

I never expected them to bankrupt the team by signing Hamilton or Grienke. Of course not. But I did expect more action than a 1 year contract extension for Nate McLouth. And by now, I figured they would have extended the best manager they've had since Earl Weaver.God, is that too much to ask?

Maybe Angelos will finally give we long-suffering Orioles fans something to hang on to. I mean, he's done next to nothing for almost 15 years; there is something called the Law of Averages...you know...

BUT I WON'T BELIEVE IT TILL I SEE IT.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #27 by Seafordeagles » January 2nd, 2013, 2:09 pm

mikezpen wrote:An E+

I never expected them to bankrupt the team by signing Hamilton or Grienke. Of course not. But I did expect more action than a 1 year contract extension for Nate McLouth. And by now, I figured they would have extended the best manager they've had since Earl Weaver.God, is that too much to ask?

Maybe Angelos will finally give we long-suffering Orioles fans something to hang on to. I mean, he's done next to nothing for almost 15 years; there is something called the Law of Averages...you know...

BUT I WON'T BELIEVE IT TILL I SEE IT.


I called the off season so far a D and got totally reamed for it by one poster. Hopefully you won't.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #28 by ofahn » January 2nd, 2013, 2:11 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:I called the off season so far a D and got totally reamed for it by one poster.


Perhaps you should read what you wrote and the response once again.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #29 by ofahn » January 2nd, 2013, 2:43 pm

mikezpen wrote:I never expected them to bankrupt the team by signing Hamilton or Grienke. Of course not. But I did expect more action than a 1 year contract extension for Nate McLouth. And by now, I figured they would have extended the best manager they've had since Earl Weaver.God, is that too much to ask?

Maybe Angelos will finally give we long-suffering Orioles fans something to hang on to. I mean, he's done next to nothing for almost 15 years; there is something called the Law of Averages...you know...

BUT I WON'T BELIEVE IT TILL I SEE IT.


Which trade or FA signing would you have made? With all due respect, I ask that you be realistic in your answer and remember that it takes both sides to be willing in any trade or signing.

We need ONE veteran SP for ONE year. For reasons that I have explained in another post (viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1790&p=17973#p17973) I don't believe that we can count on Dylan Bundy to be a permanent part of the rotation in 2013, but I would expect that he will be in 2014. If you assume that Hammel leaves after the season and either Matusz, Arrieta, or Britton becomes an effective member of the rotation then Bundy is all that would be needed to fill the 2014 starting five. Maybe Gausman will be ready to throw 190 or more innings that year, too.

What I see as Bundy's biggest obstacle to become a full time member of the Orioles' staff is the innings limit the team will put on him this year. He threw 105.1 innings last year and the team will almost certainly not allow him to exceed 150 this year. If you assume he'll need about a third of those in AAA to finish off his curve ball and change up he'd have about 100 innings left for Baltimore.

Do you let him pitch until he hits his limit? If so, we'll have our own Strasburg controversy next year and a potential big hole in the rotation in September and October. Do you try to delay his return to Baltimore so he can pitch till the 162nd game? If so, you still wouldn't have any innings left for the post season.

I honestly think the best course for Dylan Bundy is let him get his work in at AAA and ONLY bring him up on an emergency basis. If he pitches about 50 ML innings spread out over about eight starts he'll get enough experience to be ready for 2014 when he should be cleared to pitch a full season.


This means that Anibel Sanchez and Edwin Jackson would not have been good fits in that they wanted too much money and too many years to fill a hole for just one year; and, frankly IMO, neither of those two are any better than what we already have.

If you accept that then we move on to position players. Regardless of how you feel about Brian Roberts, the FO is NOT going just cut him loose and spend big money on a replacement; and none were available in the FA market. That means that we might have made an upgrade in LF, 1B, and DH. Since the team wants to (rightfully, IMO) focus on defense first they decided McLouth presented the best option for the money they had to spend. You could argue that Bourn is a better defender, but he wants too much money for too many years and he would cost a draft pick; which the team apparently is unwilling to give up. Hamilton? Once a team was foolish enough to go beyond three years the Orioles wisely passed. Swisher? The glove detracts from the bat and both will only get worse as he gets older. He's really a DH on a good defensive team at this point. Money, years, and draft pick. Pass.

LaRoche? OK, fits the profile of run producer and plus glove, but he's insistent on three years which the team won't do and he costs a draft pick; which seems to be a deal breaker. Besides, the team wants to give Chris Davis a shot at proving he belongs at 1B and he may very well make them look good. At DH they want to see if Nolan Reimold, who MAY be the best natural hitter on the team, can get through an entire season; and I see that as the right move. If he is unable to produce we have our share of platoon hitters for that role, and those kind of guys can be easy and relatively cheap to acquire during the year.

Trades? Which position would you trade to fill? LF? Who would you be looking at? Michael Morse? He might be a slightly better run producer than McLouth but his glove is unacceptable. If you set your sights on a better player what are you willing to give up and is that going to harm the team at another position? We do a have a small surplus of SP, but most teams just don't want to give us fair value for them. That might change at the trading deadline and we would have a better understanding of what our real needs are.

Taking all of this into consideration, do you still feel the same way about your grade?
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #30 by osforlife » January 2nd, 2013, 6:21 pm

If DD would have signed Melky Cabrera over Nate McLouth and a veteran starter already, the off-season would be complete and an A+. DD has made nice under the radar moves to provide solid depth. Now, all we need is a starter. The only FA starters I'd be willing to sign to major league deals with options would be Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and MAYBE Jeff Karstens. Kyle Lohse would be really nice but he costs a draft pick so I don't think the club will do that. Minor league deals towards Jair Jurrgens and Dallas Braden intrigue me.
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