Scout ranks O's young pitchers: Britton, Arrieta, Tillman, Matusz

[Matt P]

I like your process for evaluation. Stats should indeed be used to supplement what your eyes tell you (assuming you watch enough of the particular player).

I do think the stats are "clearly wrong" with Arrieta in regard to him being "unlucky" or due for improvement, but I also think they indicate that he still has potential. Improvements in strikeout/walk rates are always a good thing and in the very least could portend a successful transition to the bullpen. The consensus seems to be that those of us who hold out hope for Arrieta becoming a successful SP are hoping that he fixes his mental issues in order to let his physical abilities play out. I personally wouldn't say that is likely to happen but I will continue to hold onto a sliver of hope that it does. That being said I completely understand birdwatcher and Matt's point of view that the Arrieta love is "baffling". Time will tell if some of our continued hope and faith is rewarded.

I think he will be on a short leash if/when he reaches the majors in 2013, a couple "more of the same" unraveling bad starts and that may be the last we see of him in an O's uniform (at the very least as a SP).

I agree with what you are saying. I even went batter by batter in a few games that people claimed he was "unlucky" in to show that he wasn't last season. I am firmly in the camp that believes his issues are 100% mental. He falls behind hitters and I think that is his main problem as he doesn't trust his stuff. Then, when the hitter is in a hitters count they are at such an advantage and that is why he continues to struggle. He gets away with it from time to time because his stuff is very good but nobody can make a living pitching like that. Talent wise he is clearly ahead of Matusz and Tillman in my mind but mentally he is very far behind.

[birdwatcher55]

I would love to cut bait with Arrieta. To my thinking, he is just a major distraction in trying to assemble a quality pitching staff. No question, he has ability but doesn't know what to do with it when the chips are down. Guys like that break your heart every time IMHO

[OriolesRedskins28]

He falls behind hitters and I think that is his main problem as he doesn't trust his stuff. Then, when the hitter is in a hitters count they are at such an advantage and that is why he continues to struggle. He gets away with it from time to time because his stuff is very good but nobody can make a living pitching like that.

THAT is what drives me crazy the most about him. Over the past two years he's gone through short stretches within games where he gets ahead of hitters and looks dominant (remember the 6 innings of no hit baseball against the Rays in 2011?), but then he gets right back in the habit of nibbling early in the count, putting himself in a hole which as you said is a recipe for disaster.

This kind of reminds me of Tillman's issues before this season (nibbling and not trusting hist stuff) but significantly worse. Again I'm holding onto a sliver of hope that some more work in AAA can help him get over his mental hurdles but I'm certainly not banking on it. He's awfully old to be struggling with the mental side of the game like he is.

[OriolesRedskins28]

I would love to cut bait with Arrieta. To my thinking, he is just a major distraction in trying to assemble a quality pitching staff. No question, he has ability but doesn't know what to do with it when the chips are down. Guys like that break your heart every time IMHO

I'm almost at the point where I'd like to cut bait as well but I would like to give him one more chance to work in AAA with Peterson and Griffin as well as with that sports psychologist to get things right.

I don't think he will be a distraction if they put him in AAA and force him to prove he's overcome his issues. If/when he reaches the majors he should get a short leash so he doesn't become a negative presence for the team.

[ofahn]

I'm almost at the point where I'd like to cut bait as well but I would like to give him one more chance to work in AAA with Peterson and Griffin as well as with that sports psychologist to get things right.

I agree that this season will be critical to his career. I don't like the approach that it's "do or die" for any player; but we're really at the point where he should be told when he goes out on the mound that if he starts to nibble, is warned and continues to do so, he'll be pulled from the game.

IMO he starts to nibble because he's afraid of failing. If he understands that refusing to trust his stuff has WORSE consequences maybe he'll just relax and pitch to his talent.

[Matt P]

He's awfully old to be struggling with the mental side of the game like he is.

Exactly. Tillman was 21-23 when he was struggling with trusting his stuff, Arrieta is going to be 27 next season. Age is one of the main reasons why I spent so much time on here arguing that giving up on Tillman would be foolish.

[Matt P]

I'm almost at the point where I'd like to cut bait as well but I would like to give him one more chance to work in AAA with Peterson and Griffin as well as with that sports psychologist to get things right.

I don't think he will be a distraction if they put him in AAA and force him to prove he's overcome his issues. If/when he reaches the majors he should get a short leash so he doesn't become a negative presence for the team.

I would be upset if they cut bait with him. I think he can be at least a good middle reliever just based on his talent. A lot was made from Matusz going to the bullpen and he talked about how much he loved coming to the park everyday knowing he may pitch and that getting the call, warming up, and getting into the game was so much different than starting every 5th day. Maybe without four days between appearances Arrieta can just relax and pitch.