Should The Orioles Trade For Rick Porcello?

[ofahn]

The Orioles and Mariners are among the teams involved in talks about Porcello, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter).

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/r ... erest.html

Do you think the Orioles should trade for Rick Porcello? He was once considered one of the best prospects in the game, but he may now be sixth on Detroit's SP depth chart. IMO opinion he has the same kind of off the chart talent as Jake Arrieta, but he also has some of the same head issues.

On the plus side he's young (23) and controllable through 2015, but he's not cheap anymore because he's arbitration eligible and coming off of a 3M+ salary. He has a decent BB/9 ratio, but he gives up a lot of hits and has a high WHIP. Last season he averaged just shy of six innings a start.

He impresses me as the kind of guy that could really use some quality time with Rick Peterson but I don't know if he has any options left. If he had even one left I would seriously consider making an investment in him.

Of course, what's fair value in a trade? The Tigers want a "sure thing" closer and we have one of those in Jim Johnson. Do you consider JJ to be a fair trade? IMO we would need something else back and I wonder how much more we have to give to get Castellanos included in the trade.

Thoughts?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ri01.shtml

[Seafordeagles]

He's not coming cheap that's for sure. I wouldn't flip him for one of our 4 young pitchers for him. Although I wouldn't mind having him, but not enough to give up Jim Johnson either. Plus he's thrown a lot of innings for a 23 year old.

[OriolesRedskins28]

One of the primary reasons Porcellos hasn't blossomed into a top SP is his lack of velocity. I remember reading his top prospect report on MLB.com years ago (I believe he was ranked #3 or 4 in all of baseball) and they touted him as a refined HS pitcher who they expected to gain velocity as he filled out. That never happened. The Tigers rushed him to the majors and his K rate never reached what scouts thought it would probably due to the lack of velocity. That being said I think the comparison to Arrieta is not a good one other than potential "head issues" you identified because Arrieta has had the good velocity that Porcello has been missing. However, I still think he's a good pickup because even with a low K rate/mediocre velocity he has been fairly successful (around a 4 FIP for past 3 years).

I do love your thought on having him work extensively with Peterson because there's the possibility that Peterson's bio-mechanical analysis/ long toss program could give him the spike in velocity that would put him over the top. I think a good comp would be Tillman. Tillman was struggling before his work with Peterson that helped him to improve his delivery and got into a real long tossing program that helped increase his velocity. I could see a similar situation work out with Porcello, but would he be able to do that work in the majors? Maybe in spring training? Either way worst case scenario they would be getting a solid SP.

I think giving up Jim Johnson for him would be a great idea. The O's have the bullpen depth to absorb losing Johnson who is likely due for a little regression anyway. I do agree the Tigers would have to add on their side of the deal to make that work though. Either Porcello and Castellanos for Johnson and another fairly valuable piece or Porcello and a player of lesser value than Castellanos for just Johnson. Either way I would love to see that deal go through. It would also allow the O's to trade one of their other SPs to upgrade the team elsewhere.

[OriolesRedskins28]

he's thrown a lot of innings for a 23 year old.

His past two years have been fine in terms of innings but I would worry about 2010 (his first year in the big leagues) where he threw 190 innings as a 21 year old.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I think giving up Jim Johnson for him would be a great idea. The O's have the bullpen depth to absorb losing Johnson who is likely due for a little regression anyway. I do agree the Tigers would have to add on their side of the deal to make that work though. Either Porcello and Castellanos for Johnson and another fairly valuable piece or Porcello and a player of lesser value than Castellanos for just Johnson. Either way I would love to see that deal go through. It would also allow the O's to trade one of their other SPs to upgrade the team elsewhere.

I'm surprised you and ofahn value Johnson more than Porcello. I'd consider a straight Johnson for Porcello swap a huge win for the Orioles.

[ofahn]

I'm surprised you and ofahn value Johnson more than Porcello. I'd consider a straight Johnson for Porcello swap a huge win for the Orioles.

Look at it this way - In today's game a lock down closer is worth as much as a #3 or 4 SP. A reliable closer is even more important for a team like the Tigers that is all in for 2013. Johnson is an All Star caliber closer and Porcello is sixth on Detroit's depth chart. I don't see valuing JJ over him as a stretch.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Look at it this way - In today's game a lock down closer is worth as much as a #3 or 4 SP. A reliable closer is even more important for a team like the Tigers that is all in for 2013. Johnson is an All Star caliber closer and Porcello is sixth on Detroit's depth chart. I don't see valuing JJ over him as a stretch.

I still see Porcello as the more valuable piece. I guess they have similar value but I don't think Detroit would need to send anything more from their side.

[osforlife]

Porcello is appealing.
Pros:
His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA have dropped each year and have been significantly been lower than his ERA
His HR/9 has dropped each year
He's about to turn only 24
He still has untapped potential

Cons:
His WHIP, H/9, and Avg. Against have escalated each year. Maybe because the Tigers defense is terrible.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

His WHIP, H/9, and Avg. Against have escalated each year. Maybe because the Tigers defense is terrible.

I'd love to pair his sinker with what should be a well above-average defense next year and see what he can do.

[ofahn]

I'd love to pair his sinker with what should be a well above-average defense next year and see what he can do.

If you were DD what do you think would be a fair trade?

[osforlife]

I'd love to pair his sinker with what should be a well above-average defense next year and see what he can do.

What would it take to get Porcello and Castellanos from the Tigers?

[Jordan Tuwiner]

If you were DD what do you think would be a fair trade?

If you want to center it around Johnson: probably Johnson and a guy like Steve Johnson or Mike Wright. I don't really know though. Porcello is very similar to Trevor Cahill, who was dealt for Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook, and Collin Cowgill. The Tigers obviously aren't looking for prospects as much as the Athletics were, but they probably still want a SP in return.

I think S. Johnson and J. Johnson for Porcello would be fair.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

If you were DD what do you think would be a fair trade?

I reached out to Tucker on Twitter and he also thinks the Tigers would a decline a straight swap of Jim Johnson for Porcello.

[ofahn]

I reached out to Tucker on Twitter and he also thinks the Tigers would a decline a straight swap of Jim Johnson for Porcello.

I saw on MLB Trade Rumors that they weren't happy with an offer of Joel Hanrahan for Porcello, but JJ should be valued at a step or two beyond Hanrahan.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/q ... rahan.html

[Seafordeagles]

Buck ain't gonna let Jim Johnson go especially for a pitcher with a sub .500 record and an ERA approaching 5 runs a game. We already have those type pitchers so why add another one and give up the A.L. fireman of the year plus Steve Johnson who pitched so much better (even though it was a small sample) than Porcello.