One scout's early take on the 2013 Orioles and the AL East

[Jordan Tuwiner]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orio ... 6133.story

Dan Connolly spoke to a major league scout and he had this to say about the Orioles:

In fact, if rosters were set today, the scout said he’d predict that the Orioles finish fourth in the AL East in 2013, just above the Tampa Bay Rays. It could have been worse. He initially had the Orioles in last, but changed his mind and flip-flopped them with the Rays.

As for the Orioles, the scout thinks there are several players – Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Jason Hammel, Miguel Gonzalez, specifically – who will have a tough time repeating their outstanding 2012 seasons. And, unless the club can add a big bopper in the middle of the lineup before Opening Day, he thinks the Orioles just don’t have enough firepower to compete if they can’t rekindle their extra-inning and close-game magic.

“Baltimore hasn’t done anything to better their club [this winter], and most people agree they played over their heads last year,” the scout said.

How much of this do you agree with?

[ofahn]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-one-scouts-early-take-on-the-2013-orioles-and-the-al-east-20121214,0,5386133.story

Dan Connolly spoke to a major league scout and he had this to say about the Orioles:





How much of this do you agree with?

If he thinks the Sux are better than the Rays, he's NUTS.

I agree they played over their heads. This year we get to see if they're for real.

[OriolesRedskins28]

The fact that he has the Rays in last place is ridiculous. I would put ZERO credence into that scout's words.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

The fact that he has the Rays in 1st place goes to show how valued Shields is. He went deep into games and allowed the bullpen to rest.

I don't think the Rays will come in last, but I think the loss of Shields will have a bigger impact than most believe.

[OriolesRedskins28]

Completely disagree. Rays always find a way to get it done. Their pitching depth will soften the blow of losing Shields. Joe Maddon will pull the right strings with his SPs and put their always top notch bullpen in the best situations possible. Their offense will be better especially if Longoria stays healthy.

Rays are my division favorite. Last place is laughable IMO.

[ofahn]

I don't think the Rays will come in last, but I think the loss of Shields will have a bigger impact than most believe.

IMO if Tampa adds a couple of bats they have enough pitching to be a winning team.

[OriolesRedskins28]

IMO if Tampa adds a couple of bats they have enough pitching to be a winning team.

Longoria played in only 74 games last year. Extrapolate his 2.4 2012 WAR and you get around a 5 WAR. That +2.6 WAR is almost like trading for an impact player.

[Matt P]

As for the Orioles, the scout thinks there are several players – Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Jason Hammel, Miguel Gonzalez, specifically – who will have a tough time repeating their outstanding 2012 seasons. And, unless the club can add a big bopper in the middle of the lineup before Opening Day, he thinks the Orioles just don’t have enough firepower to compete if they can’t rekindle their extra-inning and close-game magic.

“Baltimore hasn’t done anything to better their club [this winter], and most people agree they played over their heads last year,” the scout said.

I can't find a way to disagree with anything he said about the team. I think they are going to be around a .500 team next season with the current roster.

[Old Sneakers]

Like MattP I think the Orioles are a .500 team

I think the division is Tampa Bay's.

[A_K]

I'd say he's on the money about the Orioles, but way off base on the Rays. Right now I see the division shaking out as Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles.

[birdwatcher55]

Hopefully that scout does not work for us. Tampa is loaded with pitching and a solid bullpen to boot. They will be a factor. I'm very comfortable with our ballclub as well. We have a nice staff (Chen, Tillman, Britton, Gonzo, Hammel) and probably the best bullpen in baseball and an offense quite capable of putting up 200+ HRs this season

[ofahn]

I'd say he's on the money about the Orioles, but way off base on the Rays. Right now I see the division shaking out as Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles.

IMO there are SO many variables with all five teams at this point that I wouldn't bet money on the order of finish even if you gave me favorable odds.

[A_K]

IMO there are SO many variables with all five teams at this point that I wouldn't bet money on the order of finish even if you gave me favorable odds.

Yeah, I wouldn't bet on anything either. Actually... I'd feel pretty comfortable laying money down on the O's finishing in last, though I wouldn't ever do such a thing for obvious reasons.

[ofahn]

I'd feel pretty comfortable laying money down on the O's finishing in last

I'd be more comfortable betting us to finish third than last.

[BuckMagic]

Longoria played in only 74 games last year. Extrapolate his 2.4 2012 WAR and you get around a 5 WAR. That +2.6 WAR is almost like trading for an impact player.

You can't assume he will be healthy next year though..