The combination of my subjective interpretation of each team's talent level and my expectation for what each team will do this offseason.
I don't think the Orioles season was a complete fluke, but I do think they are closer to an 83-85 win team in true talent than the 93 win team we saw last year. I also think the Blue Jays and Red Sox were much better than their records suggested, and I expect the Red Sox to make a few solid moves to improve their team.
I posted earlier that I felt that at this point this was an 85 win team. I also said that we could easily add at least five more wins by having two or more of our core players make simple adjustments that would allow them to go to the next level.
That being said we will need continued improvement by our young pitchers, a better team OBA, and the same defense we saw in the last two months of the season to be a contender. The players AND DD have their work cut out for them.