Orioles will pick up Ayala's option

[Jordan Tuwiner]

https://twitter.com/masnRoch/statuses/2 ... 2983191555

#orioles easiest decision this week: Picking up reliever Luis Ayala's $1 million option for 2013. Will make that announcement Wednesday.

https://twitter.com/masnRoch/statuses/2 ... 5340198914

"Ayala had a good year and he has a reasonable contract. There's value there to the team." - Dan Duquette

[ofahn]

"Ayala had a good year and he has a reasonable contract. There's value there to the team." - Dan Duquette

I hope they mean trade value. I just don't see a spot for him at this point.

[OriolesRedskins28]

I think he's a fine middle reliever and good clubhouse guy. Certainly a better pitcher than Gregg was.

[Matt P]

I think he's a fine middle reliever and good clubhouse guy. Certainly a better pitcher than Gregg was.

Agreed. Not sure why so many are down on him he is a good 6th/7th inning guy and is on a very reasonable contract.

[ofahn]

I think he's a fine middle reliever and good clubhouse guy. Certainly a better pitcher than Gregg was.

I won't argue with even one syllable of that statement; however, that doesn't change the fact that I would prefer to trade him. Allow me to explain.

First, IMO we have seven relievers that are better than him. I say that because Ayala has a HORRIBLE inherited runners scored ratio. You want a reliever to let those runners die on the bases when you bring him him. Ayala didn't do that as well as the rest of my list.

Second, most of the pitchers on my list are young and I would like to keep a good mix of veterans and younger pitchers. Both for cost and controlability. I would ONLY keep a veteran IF they were much better than a younger pitcher. IMO Ayala doesn't meet that standard.

Here's my 2013 Orioles bullpen. The list is in the order of the best pitcher, down.

Jim Johnson (RH closer) - it's hard to pick between JJ and Randy Myers as having the best Orioles' season as a closer. That being said I would seriously listen to offers for him this winter. He was pushed hard this year and is probably st his peak value. The return would be substantial and we have plenty to choose from to replace him.
Darren O'Day (RH set up) - looking at the radar gun you would never think this guy could get anyone out, but he does and doesn't seem to crack under pressure.
Pedro Strop (RH set up) - INCREDIBLE STUFF. PERIOD, END OF SENTENCE. Once he takes his command to the next level he could become an absolutely unhittable closer.
Tommy Hunter (RH set up) - I see a closer in the making. Once he made the transition to short relief he was almost unhittable. With a 98 MPH FB an 88 MPH change up would make him a lock down closer.
Troy Patton (LH set up) - steady and consistent. Can handle hitters from both sides of the plate.
Steve Johnson (RH long relief) - doesn't look like much from behind a radar gun, but this guy KNOWS how to pitch and Ks hitters at unbelievable rate. One time threw an order and he's dominant.
Tsuyoshi Wada (LH long relief) - I recognize that he hasn't thrown a pitch in the ML yet, but he was dominant in Japan. Once he's healthy he should do very well one time through an order.

Ayala is a serviceable reliever and he's cheap, but I just don't see him as better than those seven guys. I see him as an excellent trading chip because of his experience and price.

[OriolesRedskins28]

Yeah if they can get any value for him in a trade I would prefer that but I don't mind keeping him on the team either.

[A_K]

Can't count much on Wada, given he's never pitched in the majors and is coming off a major surgery. Johnson has an option remaining I believe and can also provide depth as a starting pitcher, which is important.

I'm fine with picking up Ayala's option, and would be surprised to hear there's much interest in him on the trade market (at least during the offseason). That said, he's precisely the type of pitcher who creates the "bullpens are the most volatile aspect of a baseball team" maxim, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he fell apart entirely and needed to be cut early in the season.

[OriolesRedskins28]

good value*

[ofahn]

That said, he's precisely the type of pitcher who creates the "bullpens are the most volatile aspect of a baseball team" maxim, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he fell apart entirely and needed to be cut early in the season.

Even if that happens he will only cost 1M. That's a LOT cheaper than Gregg's 5.8M.

[A_K]

Even if that happens he will only cost 1M. That's a LOT cheaper than Gregg's 5.8M.

Agreed. That's basically why I'm fine with picking up his salary. He's cheap enough that it won't be impossible to cut him, and he doesn't need to provide too much production to provide surplus value.

[Matt P]

I thought Wada isn't likely to be ready for Opening Day?

[ofahn]

I thought Wada isn't likely to be ready for Opening Day?

Probably not. Pomeranz or someone else could fill his slot until he's ready. From what I understand he's EXPECTED to be ready by the end of April.

[Matt P]

Probably not. Pomeranz or someone else could fill his slot until he's ready. From what I understand he's EXPECTED to be ready by the end of April.

I wouldn't be surprised if they want to test him as a starter before putting him in the bullpen. I can see them doing what they did with Britton last year when he had the long rehab assignment before they decided what to do with him. He was more highly touted than Chen coming over from Japan so I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the rotation when he is ready.

[ofahn]

I wouldn't be surprised if they want to test him as a starter before putting him in the bullpen. I can see them doing what they did with Britton last year when he had the long rehab assignment before they decided what to do with him. He was more highly touted than Chen coming over from Japan so I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the rotation when he is ready.

I could them WANTING to do that, but Wada has a clause in his contract the requires his permission to send him to the minors. I don't know how that would be interpreted by a rehab stint.

Frankly, I don't know which of a rotation of Chen, Hammel, Gonzales, Tillman, and Saunders(?), Wada would bump. That's why I see him in the bullpen as a long man with the occasional spot start.

[Matt P]

I could them WANTING to do that, but Wada has a clause in his contract the requires his permission to send him to the minors. I don't know how that would be interpreted by a rehab stint.

Frankly, I don't know which of a rotation of Chen, Hammel, Gonzales, Tillman, and Saunders(?), Wada would bump. That's why I see him in the bullpen as a long man with the occasional spot start.

I think you meant to type majors instead of minors? He had a one game rehab last year before he was shut down if memory serves so I don't see what he could possibly have in his contract that states in year 2 he cannot go on a rehab assignment.

Having him stay back in extended Spring Training followed by a 20+ day rehab assignment should be enough time for them to decide. In a perfect world all 5 starters would be pitching well which would force Wada to the bullpen. Chances are that at least one of them will either be pitching poorly or injured by the time Wada is ready to come up and he could take that pitchers spot.