Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

[allstar1579]

Seeing the depth this year is going to be pitching, I expect a position player in the first slot. Unless somehow Cole is available for the Orioles selection I suspect it will be one of three players.

Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bubba Starling
Francisco Lindor

You have that problem that happens in years where one area is deeper than the other, the position players seem like they are better than they really are because of the lack of them. You have to take the best player at #4, and while you can make an argument to take any of those 3, none of them are really worth a top 5 pick when there are some of those star-caliber pitchers still out there.

[Don]

I have tape on now 8 of the 10 ranked players. I watched all of them and think my list is as follows.

1. Rendon - Could drop to 2, if he shows wear and tear or the number 2 guy impresses. Not the greatest two weeks for him so far.
2. Cole - Like the projection, like the demenor, easily can be the top pick with a solid spring. Not worried about maturity issues.
3. Starling - Oozes projection and part time player. Simply amazing to see his skill set and he is a multi-teared athlete. tough sign may drop him a bit.
4. Jed Bradley - Power arm lefty who I feel will be a top five pick if he shows better command. I like the no hitter so early and he simply is projectable.
5. Springer - Best bat in the class for power, limted to corner knocks him down. Dropping with a rough start 3-22.
6. Barnes - Mechnically better as ages and waiting to see this past outing. projection, size, make him easier to see long term starter written on him.
7. Gray - If he were three inches taller and a bit more heavier, I bet people will feel safier about him as a starter long term. I seem to be higher on him than some of my scouting friends.

Guys rising on boards IMO: Danny Hultzen, Taylor Jungmann (he crosses his body throwing and it he is off my board if I were drafting), John Stilson (he is going to crack the top 50 with ease this spring), Jackie Bradley (when the top hitters are having rough starts - he is on a tear - best defensive centerfielder with raw power and bat is getting better by the day)

[Don]

And the depth is specifically college pitching. I suspect over half of the first round picks will be college pitchers in this draft class.

The wildcard will be the high school players. Lindor will jump if he shows a better offensive game and could be a top five player showing better all around game. Starling and Archie Bradley are two tough signs with College Football in the picture. I like both of these guys and Bradley might be the first high school pitcher off the board. Beede, Bundy, Owens, Norris can competely change the entire outlook of this draft based on the spring.

[Don]

The only real pitcher that fits the head of the rotation bill is Cole at this point. Jed Bradley is a fine player and you could jump into this class with a solid spring and you cannot teach speed.

I do not like the good ol' boy from UT. He crosses his body a bit natuarally and when he presses this becomes even more appearant.

Barnes is an emiga to me. I like him and he projects rather well, but something just does not set him a part that jumps him above his teammate. I would take Springer over him, but this is just my call.

Gray. I really like from a production standpoint. He comes from a good program that does teach before winning. He is small and it does not hurt him with Mike Leake and Tim Lincecum having success, but it still makes guys hesitant to pick in the as the top left hander. I bet Bradley will be ahead on most boards over Gray, but Gray can be a solid 2-3 starter down the road.

Archie Bradley could jump with two things. Showcasing his talent this spring and putting football in the rearview. There are few others that could jump into the mix, but I really see only Cole at this point that sits above the rest. As I said, it is rather early and a few College guys could jump into the mix.

I no longer feel Purke is in that class and see him drafted in 12-20 range.

[Tenth Inning]

My concerns re: Gray have been assuaged at this point. He's shown durability and has maintained mid-90s velo into late innings consistently. He's now the 2A college pitcher on my board, with Jungmann at 2B.

[Tenth Inning]

Was OF Jackie Bradley Jr. on the list? If Rendon, Cole and Purke are gone by pick #4 Bradley's in my top 3.

I'm sure this has been discussed since you posted it a month ago, but I'll chime in with my .02...

JBJ was a sleeper pick of mine pre-season. I felt he was undervalued. He's done much to back up my belief so far.

I'll try to stay objective despite my man-crush. I still think that JBJ is a bit of a reach at 1:4, but a justifiable one under the right circumstances. To my mind, he is a lot like Zack Cox/Christian Colon last year (albeit in a stronger class this year). He is probably not the best player available in terms of upside, but he is a good, safe pick to provide ML value. I have little doubt that his overall game will play as an ML regular, and he still has that upside of an all-star outfielder, even if there's not much projection left. He should have a quick path to the majors and will likely sign for slot as such a high pick. He would be a wise selection for a team with multiple first round/supplemental picks.

BAL is not such a team, but I wouldn't argue much with the selection if they went overslot in the subsequent picks of a deep draft.

Still, I think I would go Gray, Jungmann or Starling at this point. Plenty of time for me to change my mind, though

[Don]

I have to slight re-rank after watching Cole's last outing. He is now my top guy on the board. The tape to gun was hitting 95 and dropped to 92 on his fastball. It showed a bit of tail, which is surprising for a right hander with his slot. His change up is by far making his fastball look 98-99 and I grade it as the best I have seen from a prospect, better than Matusz and that says alot because of my man crush on him. He could be a number 4/5 in almost any major league rotation right now with those two pitches alone. Someone should teach him a splitter/fork and I am talking his chances of being a future Cy Young winner.

His slider is weak and scrap it anyway because sharp sliders could pose mechanical problems. Limit his bite as his change up is going to be an out pitch and use any other off speed to keep them honest. I really mean his change up makes his fastball simply explode.

I rate him higher than Strasburg and he is now number 1 on my board. I saw him up clsoe over the summer and thought top 5, but he has brought a bulldog mentality to the mound to go alone with re-fined makeup. He is a number 1 and will get through very quickly.

[Don]

Purke is now dropped to the fifth best left hander and not rising in my eyes. I talked with my same friend this morning and they plan on passing him and he has alot left to prove that he should be drafted higher than his original Rangers selection of 14.

Technically, he is off my board, if I were in a draft room.

[Don]

I have said on this thread that I like Gray and placed this over his unique thread within this forum. I still think he is clean mechanically, but his effort to get to his current level places some scare towards his long term outlook. Effort is something that should be a smooth and back seated. It should look as if you are throwing a feather.

Can you sustain that effort over 35-40 games into your mid to late 20's, much less your early 30's? Can you find that extra gear when you are already giving 90-95% effort into your throws?

You want to root for the guy. History shows that Timmy is a freak of nature and others like him cannot be a top of the rotation guy. For the fourth selection, you need a top of the rotation or a everyday up the middle guy, or simply a future all star in the making. I just cannot say 100% that Gray can fit that mold without being a bullpen pitcher and those are guys you can easily make from later round picks.

[BuckMagic]

Tweet from Keith Law:

Purke didn't look like a top 10 pick Saturday

[allstar1579]

Purke will go later in the first, I wouldn't put it past him to not sign again and come back next year trying to prove he can stay a starter and go in the top 5. The problem with that fear is it's going to make him drop even further, for a guy that's going to be a closer, he should just focus on that, take the money he can get and work on moving quickly through the minors and looking towards Papelbon type arbitration numbers.

[Don]

I think I made it clear that Purke would not be on my board, if I were in charge of a front office. What he plans to command and my thinking is that he is a future Jake Peavy or Adam Wainwright (injuries, not stuff), he best left for another team to work on that project.

[Don]

Keith Law has re-ranked his list of the top 50 draft eligible prospects for more than the top ten, you can click to this link

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/ ... reFifty2.0 (subscription required)

1. Gerritt Cole
2. Anthony Rendon
3. Bubba Starling
4. Danny Hultzen (curb the high ranking as Law agrees with me that he is not the fourth best prospect - Link high is from D-Backs.)
5. Sonny Gray
6. Dylan Bundy (been right along time that he is the best high school pitcher)
7. Taylor Guerrieri
8. Francisco Lindor
9. Blake Swihart
10. Jed Bradley

Law and I are close in our group. The only one I have not seen extensive tape on at the moment is Swihart. He is holding Bradley's last season against him way too much. I still will say that he is the second best pitcher out of this class. I think the Orioles will have a choice between Rendon and Starling if the rumors scouts hear are true.

Cole is locked to number one Pirates. Mariners are warming to the idea that Lindor will be a future all star and they like him more than Manny last season; teams are starting to worry that Rendon might live in a whirlpool. Hultzen is favored by the D-Backs and it is in the Orioles best interests to play the "I want the Virginia left hander card". This leaves a tough choice that I would not have thought this time last year. May they pass on Rendon as well, Starling started his season yesterday on a high note. Time will tell...

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Nice call on Bundy, Don. Haven't seen Taylor Guerrieri's name anywhere. What can you tell me about him?

[Don]

Taylor Guerrieri was not seen as a top of the line prosepct last summer. I was given some game action from this season and he has a long back end. He mechanics are what you expect from power arm right handers. He seems to bea two pitch warrior at the moment and no clear signs of even a workable change up. He lives off a good fastball that seems to ride on him at times. It is something that preps can get away with on the mound throwing 94 mph. His break is solid and maybe it can be called a plus pitch. He is playing in a league that is not up to snuff with So Cal, South Florida, even South mid-west.

I still prefer Bundy from the prep pitcher ranks. He now shows a plus-plus fastball, plus cutter and will have a four pitch arsenal all ranked as major league potential.

As for other topics, I had buisness in Miami and decided to stay in for the weekend. I caught Bradley up close against a solid Hurricane lineup. He simply torched them hitting mid 90's. He struck out 8 in a 6 1/3 innings and only walked one batter. He faced a lineup full of right handed hitters and beat fastball inside all day. You are talking about a left handed pitcher that works inside against right hander's with effectiveness. He is not trying to work the edges, he is throwing at them without fear. His change up was 11 mph slower than his fastball and it fooled some bats. He has sharp break and life on everything. Miami is not what it use to be, but it was still a potent right handed lineup. The ump was really poor and had a 5 inch strike zone. He still had 8/1 and allowed 4 hits. This was not Bradley's best performance this season, but he was still dominate into the seventh inning.

If Cole is off the board and the Orioles want a pitcher, I would be pushing hard for Bradley in the warroom. Power left handers with attitude do not grow on trees.