Welcome to the Orioles Nation Forums! Like most online communities, you must register to post on our message board. However, posting is free--it always will be--and registration is a simple process. Become part of the growing Orioles Nation community and register now!

Study on the Accuracy of Wins Above Replacement in 2012

Study on the Accuracy of Wins Above Replacement in 2012

PostPost #1 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 24th, 2012, 8:35 am

In last year's study, I found a .88 correlation between Wins Above Replacement and actual wins. This year is a slightly different story, but WAR still shows as a telling statistic.

WAR is a heavily debated statistic. There's controversy over which version of WAR is better -- BP, FanGraphs, or BR -- and there's debate about whether or not ERA, FIP, or xFIP should be used to calculate WAR for pitchers. The following study uses fWAR.

As much debate as there is, WAR is a fairly accurate predictor of a team's record even with the inconsistencies and flaws in some of the stats.


http://orioles-nation.com/2012/10/24/st ... -war-2012/

What do you guys think?
User avatar
Jordan Tuwiner
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 2590
Joined: September 2010
Location: Israel
Reputation Score: 57



Re: Study on the Accuracy of Wins Above Replacement in 2012

PostPost #2 by ofahn » October 24th, 2012, 8:41 am

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:
http://orioles-nation.com/2012/10/24/st ... -war-2012/

What do you guys think?


How does WAR take into consideration the contribution of the manager who has the ability to place the player in the position to succeed or fail, and how does WAR factor in a cohesive club house that motivates a player to play beyond his abilities? We saw both of those in Baltimore this season.
User avatar
ofahn
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 4414
Joined: May 2011
Reputation Score: 85

Re: Study on the Accuracy of Wins Above Replacement in 2012

PostPost #3 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 24th, 2012, 8:46 am

ofahn wrote:
How does WAR take into consideration the contribution of the manager who has the ability to place the player in the position to succeed or fail, and how does WAR factor in a cohesive club house that motivates a player to play beyond his abilities? We saw both of those in Baltimore this season.

It doesn't. WAR can give you a good idea of the talent you'll need but it's not an exact predictor. You can see how much the Orioles outperformed their WAR. A lot of that is due to Buck.
User avatar
Jordan Tuwiner
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 2590
Joined: September 2010
Location: Israel
Reputation Score: 57



Re: Study on the Accuracy of Wins Above Replacement in 2012

PostPost #4 by Old Sneakers » October 24th, 2012, 12:10 pm

Link is broken. Page cannot be found.
User avatar
Old Sneakers
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 796
Joined: March 2011
Reputation Score: 33

Re: Study on the Accuracy of Wins Above Replacement in 2012

PostPost #5 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 24th, 2012, 1:21 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:Link is broken. Page cannot be found.

Try now.
User avatar
Jordan Tuwiner
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 2590
Joined: September 2010
Location: Israel
Reputation Score: 57





Return to Baltimore Orioles

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron