Duquette: "We need to continue to look for a No. 1 starter"

[A_K]

Let's not fool ourselves. Grienke is substantially better than any Orioles pitcher since Bedard. Whether signing him is a good move is another question. But he's definitely better than anything we have.

[Old Sneakers]

I'm curious as to why you feel that way. Buying Greinke would expend a tremendous amount of the available payroll for pitcher that's, IMO, really no better than several that we already have.

I don't have a problem spending big dollars on a really good pitcher for ONE year and then wait for our pitching to develop. I have a problem with making a long term commitment to that pitcher when we might be able to fill his role from within.

Well Greinke is a proven player with a winning record, big time game and not a massive amount of innings on his arm. If the team is going after a true #1 pitcher in Free-Agency then Greinke would be my suggestion. I hope I don't come across as argumentative, but I don't see any of the guys on the Orioles being in the same league as Grienke. One day perhaps Bundy will become that, but that's going to be his third or fourth year in the majors. Not next season certainly. Actually, I do not know that Bundy will even be in the rotation late next year. You may not see that before 2014.

Is Greinke going to be expensive? Oh yeah! You betcha. Not Justin Verlander expensive but a big payroll hit nonetheless. I also think he's likely worth it for a 3-5 year deal. You won't get a guy of this nature to do 1 year. He's proven, healthy and durable. He will get the deal he wants.

When DD said we need to look for a #1 starter I assumed he meant a TOR type, not another serviceable starter in the Jeremy Guthrie mold.

Again, I do not think the team makes a big push for a big name free agent this season. Despite a great season in 2012 this team has loads of room for improvement. Depth is a strength. I do not think the talent level is. The team needs at LF, 2B and 1B and the rotation was in a constant state of change all year long. The team just as easily could have won 82 games.

[ofahn]

Let's not fool ourselves. Greene is substantially better than any Orioles pitcher since Bedard. Whether signing him is a good move is another question. But he's definitely better than anything we have.

I'm curious as too why you feel that Greinke is better than Hammel or Tillman. I just don't see it.

I still have serious doubts that Greinke would be able to handle the pressure of a "must win" game. We have three young SPs that have already proven themselves in those games. Tillman faltered in Tampa at the end of the season. but I believe he has more potential than Greinke and will eventually prove himself in big games.

[ofahn]

Well Greinke is a proven player with a winning record, big time game

Can you identify even ONE "must win" game that Greinke has won?

[Old Sneakers]

Can you identify even ONE "must win" game that Greinke has won?

You can argue if it is actually "must win" but here is a great example

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2011_NLCS.shtml

[ofahn]

Old Sneakers,

First, I don't think you're being argumentative. While I disagree with most of what you posted, you stated your well considered opinion in a logical and articulate way and I've given you a Rep Point for it. Now, allow me to explain WHY I disagree with you.

I don't see any of the guys on the Orioles being in the same league as Grienke.

IMO you have over valued Greinke and undervalued some of our young starters. I certainly see Greinke as a quality SP. I would rate him as a solid #2 on a winning team. That being said I would not want him on the mound for a "must win" game. I just don't trust that he would arise to the occasion.

On the other hand, look at what some of OUR young SPs did this season when each and every game was crucial. Time after time they keep an inconsistent offense in the game and gave us a chance to win, and none of them will cost us 120 to 140M over the next six or seven years.

One day perhaps Bundy will become that, but that's going to be his third or fourth year in the majors. Not next season certainly. Actually, I do not know that Bundy will even be in the rotation late next year. You may not see that before 2014.

I agree that Bundy SHOULD NOT BE a fixture in next year's rotation. He hasn't finished the development of his secondary pitches and the team wants to limit his innings next year. If we fail to bring back someone like Saunders to give Bundy a rotation spot we may end up a SP short in September when they shut Bundy down. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bundy become dominant early in his career. He has all of the stuff to be a star including the "want to".

Is Greinke going to be expensive? Oh yeah! You betcha. Not Justin Verlander expensive but a big payroll hit nonetheless. I also think he's likely worth it for a 3-5 year deal. You won't get a guy of this nature to do 1 year. He's proven, healthy and durable. He will get the deal he wants.

Some team will be stupid enough to offer him six or seven years. NO THANK YOU.

When DD said we need to look for a #1 starter I assumed he meant a TOR type, not another serviceable starter in the Jeremy Guthrie mold.

There may be an opportunity to get a TOR without the risk of a long term investment. We could trade for Jake Peavy and exercise his option. The White Sox will have to pay him 4M to decline his option. If they make him a qualifying offer they'll almost certainly get a 1st Rnd pick when another team signs him. IF we make the trade we could offer to take 20M of the 22M in salary (saving the Sox 2M) and give them the competitive balance draft pick we got for next season. The Sox will lose about ten slots of a draft pick and be ahead 2M. We get a SP that I see as the same quality as Greinke on a ONE year obligation and then can make the same qualifying offer next winter to get our draft pick back.

Greinke would cost 20M next season so the money is a wash and we're off the risk. I see that as win-win.

Again, I do not think the team makes a big push for a big name free agent this season. Despite a great season in 2012 this team has loads of room for improvement. Depth is a strength. I do not think the talent level is. The team needs at LF, 2B and 1B and the rotation was in a constant state of change all year long. The team just as easily could have won 82 games.

I agree; however, I see the most practical solutions for those problems as in house options.

[A_K]

For one, I'm very skeptical that there's demonstrable evidence of the oft-discussed "big game" performance. Generally speaking, better pitchers outperform worse pitchers, regardless of the stakes. And even if there was definitive proof (there isn't) that certain pitchers can elevate their own performance in big games more than other pitchers, I don't think there's any way to identify this "skill" in a pitcher who hasn't been in a large number of those situations. An example of one or two outings is an irrelevant sample in baseball. One good or bad performance in October is no more revealing than one good or bad performance in July. Trust large sample sizes. That's how good decisions are made.

So, here's why I think Grienke is substantially better than any Orioles pitcher over the last five years:

Career marks: 21.4% K rate, 6.1% BB rate, 3.45 FIP with a FIP- of 80. That is, he's 20 percent better than the average pitcher over the course of his career. Even in this season, the best of his career by a wide margin, Hammel had a FIP- of 77. For his career, it's 96. Grienke's career-best mark is 53!

Grienke is a straight up, no questions asked, proven, established STUD. He deserves every dollar he gets this offseason.

But I don't want the Orioles to give it to him.

[ofahn]

You can argue if it is actually "must win" but here is a great example

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2011_NLCS.shtml

While his team won he gave up SIX runs in six innings. Heck, our ROOKIES didn't throw a clunker like that.

[ofahn]

I don't think there's any way to identify this "skill" in a pitcher who hasn't been in a large number of those situations.

I agree. I pick pitchers I would want in big games by how confident I am in them. That comes from many small factors and how they have responded to previous pressure situations. It doesn't make any difference whether you see Greinke as a STUD or a DUD, I would NOT want him pitching a "must win" game for me.

[A_K]

I agree. I pick pitchers I would want in big games by how confident I am in them. That comes from many small factors and how they have responded to previous pressure situations. It doesn't make any difference whether you see Greinke as a STUD or a DUD, I would NOT want him pitching a "must win" game for me.

I would murder a litter of kittens to have Grienke on the mound for us in a game 7.

My calculation would be based entirely on a pitcher's career performance, which is measurable, rather than subjective interpretations of how he deals with pressure, which are not. The list of players who were regarded as chokers until they suddenly broke through and were suddenly regarded as clutch is too long to type. Good players are good. Bad players are bad. The rest is some combination of anecdotal evidence and circumstance.

[ofahn]

I would murder a litter of kittens to have Grienke on the mound for us in a game 7.

Well, you made me laugh. That HAS to be wort a Rep Point.

That being said, I think Greinke would make it a HORRIBLE waste of perfectly good kittens.

[Old Sneakers]

While his team won he gave up SIX runs in six innings. Heck, our ROOKIES didn't throw a clunker like that.

I knew before posting you would say that Truth is I did not feel like going back and researching where he put up a win against a top pitcher in August or September. I can but... I really think Greinke is known to be a significant talent.

[Matt P]

Let's not fool ourselves. Grienke is substantially better than any Orioles pitcher since Bedard. Whether signing him is a good move is another question. But he's definitely better than anything we have.

I agree 100%.