Matt P wrote:I remember arguing with a certain someone on here that it would be stupid to wait until the off season to try and trade for him.
Being that certain someone I feel better now about not making that trade. My concerns at the time were that this wasn't a championship caliber team (it wasn't); that Headley wasn't a "difference maker" but rather a complimentary player in a position we had a big hole in (he improved as the season went on); that we couldn't afford to give up THEN and for the future the pitching they were asking for (who can HONESTLY say they saw the impact that Saunders, Miguel Gonzalez, and Steve Johnson
would make on this team?); that we would be selling low (the resurrection of Matusz has been amazing and I still believe that he and Britton have the POTENTIAL of being #2 SPs in the near future); and that we couldn't afford to give up any of the few legitimate prospects we had in our farm system (saving guys like Delmonico or Bridwell to trade, if necessary, for the player that will legitimately get us to the point of being a championship team).
Over the last thirty days I have seen two lines of discussion in the baseball world. First, that SD will keep Headley. Sorry, don't believe it. They want and need young SP and don't have the money to buy it even if it were available for sale. Sure, they could buy a couple of free agent SPs for a reasonable price on one year contracts, but that won't solve their problems long term. Only making a trade will. What does SD have to trade? Headley. Are they going to get a Gio Gonzales return for him? No, because he doesn't have as much value and the demand is much smaller.
I posted this on July 12th. Very little has changed since then.
Let's look at which teams NEED a 3B.
Boston - NOPE, they are happy with Middlebrooks.
Yankees - NOPE, Arod.
Tampa - Nope, Longoria.
Toronto - NOPE.
White Sox - Probably not. They'll give strong consideration to bringing back Youkilis.
Detroit - NOPE, Cabrera.
Cleveland - Maybe, but they have other holes to fill so they probably won't be willing to pay a premium for Headley.
KC - NOPE, Moustakas.
Minnesota - Maybe, but they have Trevor Plouffe that can play there and they also have too many holes to pay a premium for a position they can fill from within.
Angels - Maybe, but their farm system is almost dry and they have Callaspo to play there.
Oakland - Probably, but they're a team that looks for a bargain so I doubt they are willing to outbid anyone for a player. They also have Stephen Parker at AAA that they might want to give a chance before they "outsource".
Seattle - NOPE, they'll give Kyle Seeger a chance to show whether he should keep the job.
Atlanta - Maybe, because Chipper will retire, but they my want to allow Juan Fransico to earn the job.
Miami - NOPE, Ramirez. This changed and they are now in the market; however, I don't see them using up their limited prospects to fill just one hole.
Mets - NOPE, Wright.
Washington - NOPE, Zimmerman.
Cubs - Maybe, but they might allow Josh Vitters to show whether he's a ML player.
Reds - NOPE, Rolen's at the end of his string but Todd Frazier has been a solid player at 3B and will probably go into ST with job as his to lose.
Houston - NOPE, they have Chris Johnson and won't be paying a premium for any player while they're rebuilding. This has cahnged since they traded Johnson to AZ; however, I don't see them using up their limited prospects to fill just one hole.
Milwaukee - NOPE, Aramis Ramirez.
Pirates - NOPE, Pedro Alvarez.
Cards - NOPE, Freese.
Dodgers - Now THIS is a team that will need a 3B and don't have a ready prospect in their system; however, San Diego would probably prefer to trade outside of their division and league if they thought the offers were roughly the same. They traded for Ramirez. Probably set there now and I don't see SD trading with the Dodgers if another team makes them a similar offer, nor do I see LA paying the Padres a premium of young players.
Giants - Nope, Sandoval.
Arizona - This is a team that will need to find a 3B, but they may give Matt Davidson a shot in ST. AND they probably won't want to pay a premium to block Davidson if he's not ready in the Spring, AND San Diego would probably prefer to trade outside of their division and league if they thought the offers were roughly the same. They traded for Chris Johnson.
Colorado - Also a team that needs a 3B, but they have some in house solutions for 2013 and probably won't want to pay a premium to block Nolan Arenado who may be ML ready in mid 2013, AND San Diego would probably prefer to trade outside of their division and league if they thought the offers were roughly the same.
Phillies - add them to the list of buyers for a 3B; however, I don't see them using up their limited prospects to fill just one hole.
There's one more thing to consider: the Padres almost HAVE to trade Headley this Winter to open a spot for Jedd Gyorko. If they keep Headley once Gyorko takes over 3B they will have to move Headley to the OF where his trade value will be reduced by at least half.
I posted this on July 29th.
With all of the hysteria around acquiring Headley it 's apparently lost in the hoopla that THE PADRES DON'T REALLY HAVE A MARKET LEFT FOR HIM AND ALMOST HAVE TO TRADE HIM NOW TO EVEN GET HIS REAL VALUE. They can want Machado. They can want Bundy. They can want six weeks in a clothing optional hot tub with Kate Upton but that doesn't mean the market is there for them to get what they want.
The Dodgers were the team that MIGHT have given a top 100 SP (Lee), but they're out of the game now. The Diamondbacks got Johnson from the Astros. The Pirates are finally figuring that they don't have a spot for him and the Indians are now looking at becoming sellers. The two teams left standing are the Orioles and As. The As have a tradition of NOT overpaying for players and are probably thinking (as I hope DD is) that they will be competing with us this Winter for Headley at a much lower price IF the Padres hold on to him because the premium he could generate this season ENDS on July 31st.
With the emergence of Gonzales, Tillman, Dylan Bundy, and Gausman; along with the resurrection of Matusz and the expected recovery of Britton we now have pitching we can consider trading for the right piece. Thi is particulary true if we resign Saunders and trade our competitive balance draft pick for Jake Peavy. That would give us one more year of development time for our young pitchers. The Padres need young SP. Really, whom else besides us has a surplus that we can afford to trade? The only one I can think of is the As, maybe; and I don't think they'll pay a premium.
The second line of discussion is that SD is serious about competing next year. If that's true then I could see them showing interest in a package of Hardy, Matusz or Gonzalez, and an OF prospect for Headley. If they want more then I would tell them "good luck". They will need a solid SS and several young SPs. We can help them fill two holes. If they want more then I might offer some of Hardy's salary so they can buy a SP, but I wouldn't give up more talent.