Reynolds needs to go

[ofahn]

no one else is likely to pay him anything like that either, even if he turns into the second coming of Reggie Jackson in October.

How true.

The best way to value a contract is to pay for what you're going to get, not what you got.

[osforlife]

What do you base that on?

What I see is a player with very quick reflexes on his first step, but limited ability to quickly make the second or third step. With the right training regimen that might be something that could improve, but would you risk 11M on it?

It's no secret that you win ball games by scoring more runs than the other guy. They score six, you have to score seven or more. Of course, if you only let them score three, you only need four to beat them. I could live with Reynolds below average bat if he were an above average defender. He's not. If we used his 11M to buy a better defender and a quality pitcher or an above average DH then we could actually improve the run differential. We don't have to narrowly focus on just spending more money to buy a better 1B. This was the heart of Moneyball and it makes sense when you have a budget limitation, and PA has certainly made sure of that.

I'am basing off an eye test. Yes the all mighty eye test. Didn't Jones win a gold glove while putting up not so stellar defensive sabermetrics? I don't recall Reynolds misplaying a scoop. He makes sensational instinct diving plays that many sluggish first basemen won't get to. Can you please show me a few clips on balls that he should have gotten to but didn't because of his lousy range factor? Well at least give me some examples. I don't think he is worth 11 million. Nor do I think he really fits into our plans next year with Davis/Betemit/Reimold at 1st/DH, but he carrys this team sometimes. When he's cold, theres eight other guys in the lineup. When he's hot, he like is the lineup. Now that wasn't a very good statistically approach, but I'am a spectator too, not just a stat geek.

[Matt P]

I wonder at the end of the season if he finishes up with a higher batting average than Hardy and Wieters if everyone will feel they both need to go.

[TuckerBlair89]

I wonder at the end of the season if he finishes up with a higher batting average than Hardy and Wieters if everyone will feel they both need to go.

They will site his defense as the factor.

I will say that if there are no conclusively better options at first, then I have no problem with them bringing him back. Maybe not at the 11 mil option, but if they can work out another deal. I could totally see them signing a low key guy to platoon with Betemit though...which would not be ideal.

[Matt P]

They will site his defense as the factor.

I will say that if there are no conclusively better options at first, then I have no problem with them bringing him back. Maybe not at the 11 mil option, but if they can work out another deal. I could totally see them signing a low key guy to platoon with Betemit though...which would not be ideal.

I just bring it up because the two reasons everyone hates on Reynolds is batting average and strike outs. I doubt many people realize his batting average is higher than JJ's right now. Not to mention Reynolds' .350 OBP which blows Wieters' and Hardy's out of the water.

[TuckerBlair89]

I just bring it up because the two reasons everyone hates on Reynolds is batting average and strike outs. I doubt many people realize his batting average is higher than JJ's right now. Not to mention Reynolds' .350 OBP which blows Wieters' and Hardy's out of the water.

The only true argument to that would be that C and SS have much lower standards offensively than the corner INF. I understand what you are saying though, and in the grand scheme of things you do have a point.

[Matt P]

OPS climbed up over .800 now.

[Matt P]

I can't wait to see the haters try and come up with a reason to get rid of him when he carries them to the playoffs.

[Matt P]

Quote from Michael Kay after yet another sensational play at 1B by The Sheriff "Reynolds is putting on a clinic against the Yankees".

[ofahn]

I'am basing off an eye test.

I'm using the same evaluating tool except that, apparently, I see different things than you do. What I see is a player with quick reflexes and precise movements ON HIS FIRST STEP in either direction. That's consistent with his performance at 3B. What he gains at 1B is that he doesn't have to throw.

If he could become more fluid in moving to his right he would have a good chance to go from an AVERAGE defender to an ABOVE AVERAGE defender. That still wouldn't make him worth his 11M option, but it would certainly be a step in the right direction.

If he would become disciplined enough to starting taking pitches away to right field with consistency he could turn some of those Ks into hits or productive outs. He would benefit by (1) improving his OBA and RBIs; (2) turn his ICE COLD streaks into just mini slumps; (3) make pitchers become a bit leery about working the outside corner resulting in more pitches in his Red Zone; (4) force the opposing fielders to play him more straight away which would open the power alleys for him. Let's face it; he's a premier hitter WHEN HE MAKES CONTACT. Why not ask him to make a critical adjustment to help the team?

ALONG WITH improving his range THEN you would have an 11M man, at at least someone worthy of some combination of base and ABs incentive that equals the 11M range.

[ofahn]

I just bring it up because the two reasons everyone hates on Reynolds

Any so called "fan" that would "hate" Reynolds because of his flaws is a world class JERK. He clearly cares about his teammates and winning. If he were the ONLY potential "black hole" in the lineup then the team could cover for him, but he's not. Chris Davis, Robert Andino (who MAY play 2B next year), JJ Hardy can all be "black holes", but none of them would cost us 11M next year.

Frankly, I would offer Hardy to the As or the Diamondbacks this winter with the idea of taking the return and maybe one more piece and complete the trade for Headley. That move would improve the team OBA.

[osforlife]

I'm using the same evaluating tool except that, apparently, I see different things than you do. What I see is a player with quick reflexes and precise movements ON HIS FIRST STEP in either direction. That's consistent with his performance at 3B. What he gains at 1B is that he doesn't have to throw.

If he could become more fluid in moving to his right he would have a good chance to go from an AVERAGE defender to an ABOVE AVERAGE defender. That still wouldn't make him worth his 11M option, but it would certainly be a step in the right direction.

If he would become disciplined enough to starting taking pitches away to right field with consistency he could turn some of those Ks into hits or productive outs. He would benefit by (1) improving his OBA and RBIs; (2) turn his ICE COLD streaks into just mini slumps; (3) make pitchers become a bit leery about working the outside corner resulting in more pitches in his Red Zone; (4) force the opposing fielders to play him more straight away which would open the power alleys for him. Let's face it; he's a premier hitter WHEN HE MAKES CONTACT. Why not ask him to make a critical adjustment to help the team?

ALONG WITH improving his range THEN you would have an 11M man, at at least someone worthy of some combination of base and ABs incentive that equals the 11M range.

I don't think he's worth 11 mil. I'd be fine with bringing him back on a lower deal. I don't recall many plays in which he didn't get to a ball that he should of if he had better range. I think you're basing that off of his poor range factor or whatever. How many steps do you really need to take a first base? Range really factors in at shortstop. I would know, I am one. And I really need to improve in that part of my game. I'am basically Joel Hutter. But first base, IMO, if you have a good first step, you're good to go.

[ofahn]

Range really factors in at shortstop. I would know, I am one. But first base, IMO, if you have a good first step, you're good to go.

It sounds like you've answered your own question. WHY do you feel like it's important to improve your range? I'd assume it would be to get to more balls; and be able to square up to balls that are at the edge of your current range. WHY would that be any different at 1B? Getting to more grounders would cut down on opponents' hits AND keep more runners from advancing. If you could prevent the opposing team from scoring thirty runs how would that be any different from adding thirty RBIs to your statistics?

Before we make a major investment into an extension for Mark Reynolds, or even consider picking up his 11M option, we should get his word that he will work hard this winter on improving the weak areas of his game. He clearly worked hard last winter on his weight. I'd take his word that he'll work on his range and hitting to the opposite field.

[Matt P]

"Mark Reynolds is an American Hero" - Bill Simmons

[ofahn]

"Mark Reynolds is an American Hero" for the last six weeks.