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Reynolds needs to go

Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #106 by ofahn » September 3rd, 2012, 10:10 am

Adam Wolff wrote:I'm not opposed to bringing Reynolds back, but it would have to be on a restructured deal. I think he's proven that he's not a defensive liability anymore, it's just a matter of what you think his bat truly is. I don't think you can put too much stock into how a guy finishes a season, but you also can't discount it either. Perhaps Reynolds finally feeling comfortable in his role defensively has enabled him to put the focus back on his offense. It'll be interesting to see what the O's interest is in him after this season, as well as what kind of interest is shown around the league.


IMO Reynolds is still AVERAGE defensively. He has great reflexes on his FIRST step, it's the second and third that expose his limitations. I believe we can find a 1B that will be a more consistent hitter with better overall defense, particularly for 11M. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing Reynolds back as part of a platoon, but his salary would have to reflect that and I doubt that he wants to be thought of as a part time player at this point in his career.

The best thing that could happen to him is that clubs DON'T show much interest this winter and it causes him to reconsider using all fields in his hitting. If he were to do that, and STICK with it, he could be an above average 1B.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #107 by Matt P » September 3rd, 2012, 3:46 pm

Adam Wolff wrote:I'm not opposed to bringing Reynolds back, but it would have to be on a restructured deal. I think he's proven that he's not a defensive liability anymore, it's just a matter of what you think his bat truly is. I don't think you can put too much stock into how a guy finishes a season, but you also can't discount it either. Perhaps Reynolds finally feeling comfortable in his role defensively has enabled him to put the focus back on his offense. It'll be interesting to see what the O's interest is in him after this season, as well as what kind of interest is shown around the league.


I'd offer him around 3/24 and see what he thinks about it. I wouldn't go more than 8 mil per year for him but it's not my money. He's phenomenal at 1B.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #108 by LA Detective » September 3rd, 2012, 4:33 pm

I think Reynolds playing 1b the whole year next year and not looking over his shoulder would make a more relaxed player...Look at his stats since WB got hurt and was the only guy left to play 1b...I see a .240/350 oba 32+ HR season from him next year under these conditions. Is beter than that available?
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #109 by ofahn » September 3rd, 2012, 5:08 pm

LA Detective wrote:I think Reynolds playing 1b the whole year next year and not looking over his shoulder would make a more relaxed player


He didn't have to look over his shoulder during spring training and still got off to a very poor start. He is what he is; an AVERAGE defender at 1B with a very inconsistent bat. Replacing his production from this year will not be hard and upgrading the defense at 1B would only reduce the number of runs we give up. I doubt very much that DD will offer him a multi year contract.

IF he were to change his approach to start hitting to all fields I would feel differently about him.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #110 by Matt P » September 3rd, 2012, 5:16 pm

LA Detective wrote:I think Reynolds playing 1b the whole year next year and not looking over his shoulder would make a more relaxed player...Look at his stats since WB got hurt and was the only guy left to play 1b...I see a .240/350 oba 32+ HR season from him next year under these conditions. Is beter than that available?


No, there will be nobody on the market that will put up those numbers. The best option (other than Reynolds) is Swisher but he isn't close to as good defensively at 1B at Reynolds.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #111 by birdwatcher55 » September 3rd, 2012, 6:45 pm

Pick up Reynolds' option. It's a no brainer 8-)
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #112 by Matt P » September 4th, 2012, 8:59 am

birdwatcher55 wrote:Pick up Reynolds' option. It's a no brainer 8-)


If they don't get a 2 or 3 year deal worked out they are going to have to.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #113 by ofahn » September 4th, 2012, 12:46 pm

Let me get this straight. The suggestion being made here is that if we can't give an overvalued multi-year contract to a player that's an AVERAGE defender at 1B with a BELOW AVERAGE bat we should then pick up their 11M option. I'm having a hard time understanding that.

According to Cots Baseball Contracts we have contractual commitments for 2013 of just less than 53.2M. That's BEFORE options (like Reynolds) and arbitration raises. This year's payroll was just over 84M and with the increased attendance (and MAYBE playoff revenue) it might increase to 95M next year. That means we have 42M or so to fill out the roster. An 11M mistake COULD be catastrophic.

I'd like to think that Peter Angelos would feel an obligation to his fan base for all of the damage done in the past by his meddling and show it by declaring that he'll run next year's team at "break even" and give all of the net revenues to DD to use as he sees fit, as well as the authority to eat any contract not being productive. History, however, has shown that PA puts money before results AND he doesn't feel that he has been part of the problem. THAT'S the financial reality we have to live with before we dream about signing this guy or that one.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key ... utput=html
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #114 by osforlife » September 4th, 2012, 4:38 pm

I don't care what any sabermetrics say, Reynolds is a GREAT DEFENDER at first base. Some of the plays he makes are ridicoulous. Scoops ball after ball. He is definetly one of the more athletic first basemen around baseball. Range Factor??? I'd like to see the Prince Fielders and the Adrian Gonzalez's of the world get to some of the balls he gets to. It is defineitly not a no-brainer to pick up his option but I'd think about it. I'am guessing yesterday's game was one of the refered "Black Hole Games". He went 0 for 4. But also drew a walk and saw 27 pitches. I don't think the man is worth 11 million, but there is something to be said about great defense, walks, and homeruns.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #115 by Matt P » September 4th, 2012, 7:51 pm

osforlife wrote:I don't care what any sabermetrics say, Reynolds is a GREAT DEFENDER at first base. Some of the plays he makes are ridicoulous. Scoops ball after ball. He is definetly one of the more athletic first basemen around baseball. Range Factor??? I'd like to see the Prince Fielders and the Adrian Gonzalez's of the world get to some of the balls he gets to. It is defineitly not a no-brainer to pick up his option but I'd think about it. I'am guessing yesterday's game was one of the refered "Black Hole Games". He went 0 for 4. But also drew a walk and saw 27 pitches. I don't think the man is worth 11 million, but there is something to be said about great defense, walks, and homeruns.


There is only one person that claims Mark Reynolds can be a "black hole" in the lineup. There is also only one person that claims Mark Reynolds is at best an average defender at 1B. Do you think that's a coincidence?
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #116 by Jordan Tuwiner » September 4th, 2012, 8:02 pm

Matt P wrote:
There is only one person that claims Mark Reynolds can be a "black hole" in the lineup. There is also only one person that claims Mark Reynolds is at best an average defender at 1B. Do you think that's a coincidence?

Was he not terrible at the beginning of the year? I don't think anyone is arguing that he's bad now, but he was pretty awful earlier in the year.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #117 by Matt P » September 4th, 2012, 8:14 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:Was he not terrible at the beginning of the year? I don't think anyone is arguing that he's bad now, but he was pretty awful earlier in the year.

If you are talking about offensively yes he was bad to start the year. Nobody stays hot the entire season but to proclaim one of the few on the team that can work a walk and make a pitcher throw a lot of pitches a "black hole" is ridiculous.

If you are referring to the defense nobody is talking about his 3B defense.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #118 by ofahn » September 4th, 2012, 8:26 pm

osforlife wrote:Reynolds is a GREAT DEFENDER at first base


What do you base that on?

What I see is a player with very quick reflexes on his first step, but limited ability to quickly make the second or third step. With the right training regimen that might be something that could improve, but would you risk 11M on it?

It's no secret that you win ball games by scoring more runs than the other guy. They score six, you have to score seven or more. Of course, if you only let them score three, you only need four to beat them. I could live with Reynolds below average bat if he were an above average defender. He's not. If we used his 11M to buy a better defender and a quality pitcher or an above average DH then we could actually improve the run differential. We don't have to narrowly focus on just spending more money to buy a better 1B. This was the heart of Moneyball and it makes sense when you have a budget limitation, and PA has certainly made sure of that.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #119 by ofahn » September 4th, 2012, 8:34 pm

osforlife wrote:I'am guessing yesterday's game was one of the refered "Black Hole Games". He went 0 for 4.


No, I wouldn't. A "black hole" in the lineup is when he goes completely cold for ten or more games, which Reynolds has done too many times. One game is irrelevant. As I write this he's gone three for four with four RBIs, so he's in, IMO, over the last two weeks or so one of his hot streaks. With as hot as he's been he still has a SLG % of less than .500. That's a direct result of some of his earlier "black hole" periods.

I don't have it out for Mark Reynolds. I just don't think that an AVERAGE defender like him with a league AVERAGE 1B bat is worth 11m a year. With our budget limitations the money can be spent better in other ways.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #120 by Ampontan » September 5th, 2012, 6:13 am

birdwatcher55 wrote:Pick up Reynolds' option. It's a no brainer 8-)


We can buy out the option for 500 K and still keep him by offering him arbitration. Picking up the option means his salary goes from 7.5 million now to 11 million next year. He ain't worth that, and no one else is likely to pay him anything like that either, even if he turns into the second coming of Reggie Jackson in October.
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