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Run Differential

Run Differential

PostPost #1 by A_K » August 22nd, 2012, 1:21 pm

Well, if you're looking for a solid, well researched reason to discount the importance of the Orioles crummy run differential, here ya go.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... pectation/
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #2 by ofahn » August 22nd, 2012, 1:50 pm

For every rule there has to be an exception or two. It looks like this year we might be that exception.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #3 by birdwatcher55 » August 22nd, 2012, 3:11 pm

As I recall, we got lit up a couple of times earlier this year against Cleveland and Minnesota. That weekend series at home with Cleveland really killed us before the AS break. Toss out those 5 games and I think you would see a while different picture. Just my two cents.. 8-)
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #4 by A_K » August 22nd, 2012, 3:23 pm

birdwatcher55 wrote:As I recall, we got lit up a couple of times earlier this year against Cleveland and Minnesota. That weekend series at home with Cleveland really killed us before the AS break. Toss out those 5 games and I think you would see a while different picture. Just my two cents.. 8-)


You can't just randomly choose 5 games you'd like to "toss out" of a data set to come to the conclusion that something doesn't matter. Or at least, if you did, you'd have to also choose 5 games that the Orioles won big and toss them out of the data as well. That doesn't make any sense, and proves nothing relating to whether the run differential is a meaningful stat or not.

If you're interested in following the link, however, it does provide a statistically sound explanation for why run differential isn't a good predictor of future winning percentage at this point in the season.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #5 by Matt P » August 22nd, 2012, 4:35 pm

Nice article. Thanks for posting.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #6 by birdwatcher55 » August 22nd, 2012, 6:22 pm

It's obvious every game counts but when nearly half of your games have been decided by two runs or less then you have to look at the other half for reasons for your run differential. I can think of at least 6 games this year where we were not competitve.. we were blown out badly. While we have had a lot of close wins, we have had a bunch of very bad losses that drags down your average. I think it's all pretty simple when you do the math 8-)
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #7 by A_K » August 22nd, 2012, 6:37 pm

birdwatcher55 wrote:It's obvious every game counts but when nearly half of your games have been decided by two runs or less then you have to look at the other half for reasons for your run differential. I can think of at least 6 games this year where we were not competitve.. we were blown out badly. While we have had a lot of close wins, we have had a bunch of very bad losses that drags down your average. I think it's all pretty simple when you do the math 8-)


The article I posted "does the math" and explains the reasons run differential doesn't predict winning percentage at this stage in the season. What you're saying isn't an explanation or a conclusion, it's just a basic description of what run differential measures.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #8 by Matt P » August 22nd, 2012, 9:41 pm

Tommy Hunter has now given up 5 runs or more in 9 starts. There's one of a bunch of reasons that the run differential is not good.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #9 by A_K » August 22nd, 2012, 10:56 pm

Agreed. Having no true 5th starter leaves the team with a lot of bad losses on the last game through the rotation. That's one possible explanation for a team outperforming its run differential. Whether that's actually the case here would seem to be a testable hypothesis if anyone was interested. You could easily figure the run differential of each of the five spots in the rotation and see what the team's differential is without the 5th starter's turn.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #10 by Matt P » August 22nd, 2012, 11:42 pm

Melewski said tonight on air that the run differential against Texas and LAA is -62 (I think it was 62 not 100% sure though) and that against the rest of the league it is +9.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #11 by Oriole85 » August 23rd, 2012, 1:05 am

ofahn wrote:For every rule there has to be an exception or two. It looks like this year we might be that exception.

I don't feel like the Orioles a complete fluke. I think they've won more games then they should. I've learned not to count this team out. On Sunday while I was out so I wasn't watching the game and they fell behind 5-0, I tweeted to Adam half-sarcastically were the "late innings team." Little did I know the comeback was actually going to begin a lot sooner. A dominant 'pen explains the one-run wins. The late-inning wins can be explained by that and situational hitting. Take the game against Tigers, where they rallied a bunch of times. I'd also add it seems like a different player steps up a lot -- Taylor Teagarden has twice provided late inning heroics, Nate McLouth was big impact behind the win on Tuesday. Look I realize these are small sample sizes, but this team finds a way to get it done (not to sound too cliche).

It's not always the most talent that wins these games. If that were the case, the O's would be way down the list, a team like Boston would be much higher.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #12 by Oriole85 » August 23rd, 2012, 1:09 am

Matt P wrote:Tommy Hunter has now given up 5 runs or more in 9 starts. There's one of a bunch of reasons that the run differential is not good.

We've had the quite the revolving door in the rotation for a playoff contending team as well as Hammel's injury. I don't think Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Eveland (and starters I've missed?) have exactly helped the run differential.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #13 by ofahn » August 23rd, 2012, 7:02 am

Oriole85 wrote:I don't feel like the Orioles a complete fluke. I think they've won more games then they should. I've learned not to count this team out. On Sunday while I was out so I wasn't watching the game and they fell behind 5-0, I tweeted to Adam half-sarcastically were the "late innings team." Little did I know the comeback was actually going to begin a lot sooner. A dominant 'pen explains the one-run wins. The late-inning wins can be explained by that and situational hitting. Take the game against Tigers, where they rallied a bunch of times. I'd also add it seems like a different player steps up a lot -- Taylor Teagarden has twice provided late inning heroics, Nate McLouth was big impact behind the win on Tuesday. Look I realize these are small sample sizes, but this team finds a way to get it done (not to sound too cliche).

It's not always the most talent that wins these games. If that were the case, the O's would be way down the list, a team like Boston would be much higher.


I think you misunderstood my point. This team has a winning record DESPITE it's negative run differential. IMO that's primarily due to exceptional field management and bullpen, which keeps us in close games. Erratic, bad pitching has been the primary reason for the blow outs that are the basis for the negative RD.

I am now convinced that this team WILL win at least 82 games and MAY have a shot at a Wildcard spot.
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Re: Run Differential

PostPost #14 by Oriole85 » August 23rd, 2012, 11:12 am

Here's a good column by Zach Wilt (Baltimore Sports Report) on the run differential. Of course, you can pick and choose stats to your liking. However, I think it's a good explanation with the Angels/Rangers beating up on us (and our record against them reflects that).

http://baltimoresportsreport.com/orioles-run-differential-30917.html
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