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Reynolds needs to go

Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #46 by OriolesRedskins28 » August 15th, 2012, 10:11 pm

ofahn wrote:
...and that would be ONLY after I had explored other options first.


Yes I agree, I think there are many options available at 1B for the O's next year. LF should be manned by Reimold, Hoes, or Avery leaving C Davis and Betemit with only two spots to play: 1B and DH. I would want a right handed guy to platoon with them (particularly Betemit) but I don't think that would be all that difficult to find.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #47 by ofahn » August 15th, 2012, 10:24 pm

OriolesRedskins28 wrote:LF should be manned by Reimold


In a perfect world I would prefer to platoon Reimold with Davis at DH. Both of them can play other position, but shouldn't because of their defensive shortcomings.

I can see Reimold or Davis being moved in a trade next spring if the other is hitting well since we have so many other OF options and we could use a high OPS low K guy in that spot. You know, like Reimold when he's healthy.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #48 by mikezpen » August 16th, 2012, 1:29 pm

I'd like them to trade for a good prospect at first using one of their pitchers, or possibly Davis or Reimold. While Reynolds will be invaluable if he gets hot over the next few weeks and is capable of carrying the team, I'm not inclined to keep him around next year.He kills us when he's not hitting, and that goes on for weeks or months at a time.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #49 by Matt P » August 16th, 2012, 1:34 pm

OriolesRedskins28 wrote:
That's LUCK!!!!! Those numbers fluctuate year to year; last year he went .208/.308/.408 with RISP which was below his season line .221/.323/.483...

Props to you and others who wanted to stick with him because he is certainly contributing now but to overreact and suggest resigning him is ABSURD. -0.1 WAR this year, 0.3 WAR last year. The O's can figure it out at 1B next year. He's not THAT good defensively. Fangraphs doesn't think he has good range at 1B as evidenced by his -7 PM rating. They do notice all of the nice plays he does make with their +3 GFP rating (points giving for exceptional plays made relative to the position). I think he's been fine at 1B and will be fine offensively for the rest of the season, lord knows he was due, but there is NO WAY I would offer him anything above $3m for ONE more year this winter (I would greatly prefer to part ways).

If you don't think he is "that good" defensively at 1B you are not watching the games. One shouldn't use sabermetrics as the only way to form an opinion on a player. The last time this forum did that everyone said Arrieta would turn it around and I was the only one arguing against it. Look how that one turned out.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #50 by ofahn » August 16th, 2012, 1:42 pm

mikezpen wrote:I'd like them to trade for a good prospect at first using one of their pitchers, or possibly Davis or Reimold.


Did you mean using Davis or Reimold AT 1B or as trade bait?
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #51 by jonas winslo » August 16th, 2012, 2:20 pm

Matt P wrote:If you don't think he is "that good" defensively at 1B you are not watching the games. One shouldn't use sabermetrics as the only way to form an opinion on a player. The last time this forum did that everyone said Arrieta would turn it around and I was the only one arguing against it. Look how that one turned out.


Sabres are good enough tto discount a cruddy hitter. Anybody with a glove can play 1st. You don't even need to run!
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #52 by ofahn » August 16th, 2012, 3:12 pm

Reynolds has the hot bat now so he'll get the majority of the ABs, but we should give Mahoney ABs against the some of the RHers. It may not be much of a sample but it would be nice to know if he can handle ML pitching.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #53 by OriolesRedskins28 » August 16th, 2012, 4:17 pm

Matt P wrote:If you don't think he is "that good" defensively at 1B you are not watching the games. One shouldn't use sabermetrics as the only way to form an opinion on a player. The last time this forum did that everyone said Arrieta would turn it around and I was the only one arguing against it. Look how that one turned out.


I don't think Reynolds is bad at 1B, I do see all of those tough plays he makes and he does a great job with scoops on balls in the dirt. I do think he has poor range there though (which sounds like most first baseman really). Defensive sabermetrics are indeed imperfect and should be used to supplement what your eyes tell you. My eyes tell me that Reynolds makes plenty of tough plays but has poor range which is exactly what a -7 PM and a +3 GFP would indicate. Overall you could definitely do worse at 1B than Reynolds and he is the best defensive 1B on the team right now.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #54 by ofahn » August 16th, 2012, 4:38 pm

OriolesRedskins28 wrote:he is the best defensive 1B on the team right now


That might change with Mahoney being called up but I have doubts about Mahoney's bat.

It's also clearly something we need to remedy.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #55 by Tucker Blair » August 16th, 2012, 4:56 pm

ofahn wrote:
That might change with Mahoney being called up but I have doubts about Mahoney's bat.

It's also clearly something we need to remedy.


I don't see him taking much time at all from Reynolds, especially while Reynolds is hot.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #56 by ofahn » August 16th, 2012, 5:22 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I don't see him taking much time at all from Reynolds, especially while Reynolds is hot.


I agree, but I still think they should try to find some ABs for him. Let's see what we've got.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #57 by Matt P » August 17th, 2012, 1:52 am

I just think that using current stats for Reynolds isn't the way to go. He had a bad first 2/3 of the season that was exaggerated by most but it was still bad. I know he looked average at 1B when he first started but the last few weeks he looks like a Gold Glove 1B. Also, he isn't this night and day hitter like some people make him out to be. Even when he was not hitting HR he was still working the count and getting on base better than 90% of the team. Giving him a 2 or 3 year deal worth 6-7mil per year would be paying him for what you think he will be in those 2 or 3 years, not what he has been the first 2/3 of this season. The range may not be the greatest but what 1B has great range? He makes a lot of diving stops that I've seen a lot of 1B not even attempt to stop. His problem defensively has always been his arm, not his glove.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #58 by Matt P » August 17th, 2012, 1:53 am

TuckerBlair89 wrote:
I don't see him taking much time at all from Reynolds, especially while Reynolds is hot.

If they play Mahoney over Reynolds I'll be furious. He's not better offensively and he's not better defensively.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #59 by OriolesRedskins28 » August 17th, 2012, 2:11 am

Matt P wrote:I just think that using current stats for Reynolds isn't the way to go. He had a bad first 2/3 of the season that was exaggerated by most but it was still bad.

...

Giving him a 2 or 3 year deal worth 6-7mil per year would be paying him for what you think he will be in those 2 or 3 years, not what he has been the first 2/3 of this season.


Last season's 0.3 WAR is a pretty good sample size. He is what he is, an extremely streaky hitter with outstanding power. And yes at least he does take walks during his slumps (which is more than you can say for Chris Davis), but the issue is that there are more bad times than good times with Reynolds (which includes the last two years) and I seriously doubt he is going to improve in his age 30 and 31 seasons. I think that $6/7 million per year could be spent in better places rather than in a replacement level first baseman. That being said if they could keep him for $3 million for another year it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world... Replacing him with a more consistent hitter with similar fielding abilities would be nice though.
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Re: Reynolds needs to go

PostPost #60 by Matt P » August 17th, 2012, 2:19 am

OriolesRedskins28 wrote:
Last season's 0.3 WAR is a pretty good sample size. He is what he is, an extremely streaky hitter with outstanding power. And yes at least he does take walks during his slumps (which is more than you can say for Chris Davis), but the issue is that there are more bad times than good times with Reynolds (which includes the last two years) and I seriously doubt he is going to improve in his age 30 and 31 seasons. I think that $6/7 million per year could be spent in better places rather than in a replacement level first baseman. That being said if they could keep him for $3 million for another year it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world... Replacing him with a more consistent hitter with similar fielding abilities would be nice though.

That 0.3 WAR you keep bringing up also includes his horrible 3B play last season. His oWAR last season was 2.9 according to Baseball Reference. How exactly is he extremely streaky? He usually starts off bad then picks up for the rest of the season before tailing off in September. Plus, his September stats are messed up because he played the entire month one season when he was hurt and had no business playing.

Who are you replacing him with at 1B next year?
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