Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Anyone have the opportunity to scout Bundy? Curious if he can move up the board this far?

Players in the O's org., who I assume talked to Bobby about Dylan, have told me Dylan has hit 98 mph in the past.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

There is some more talk here: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=127

hsbaseballcoach's take:

I have scouted Bundy on a few occasions and I do think he is a mid-late first rounder on the bump, but I am not quite as high on his bat. I had him projected as a second rounder at best as a position player. If they Os take him with the 4th selection - they are reaching and are enamored with his plus-plus velocity. His fastball can be flat and his secondary pitches lack some depth and consistency. Bundy has a huge upside, but needs to develop just a bit and consistently work down in the zone. He could be a great one, but I would pass on him so early in the draft.

[Don]

I have a tape on Dylan and a few other top tier prospects. I like Bundy and the gun on him from my tape was 94 with what I would call a 2 seamer fastball. He has a solid three pitches arsenal with change up that needs a bit more work. He has a solid build and mechanically sound. He needs some minor cleanup, but nothing that makes me fear long term issues. If he were 3 inches taller, he would be a top 5 guy.

For my money, I still take Bubba and give him 7 million to walk away from the Cornhuskers.

[allstar1579]

Couple quick opinions: Purke = next Billy Wagner. Gray has some command issues but has a lot of potential, I personally try to avoid command problems though. Never ever draft a pitcher from Rice. G. Cole could go #1 overall, it's all about the money with him. Springer could be a good value pick for someone in the middle of the first round. Hultzen will be one of the best pitchers out of this draft and could be in the majors within two years.

[Shorebirdfan]

Can't say I agree with your "Never draft a pitcher from Rice" statement. Ryan Berry is from Rice.

[Don]

I partially agree with certain programs. I have directed a few kids away from certain schools because I know the coaches do not care about the kid one bit. You have to remember it is a job to win games in College and development is second fiddle. They do not care if you have a slight flaw in your mechanics, if you still throw in the 90's.

I am not wise to list schools because you never know what holds in the future, but Allstar is right. Some schools can scare the stuffing out of scouts and they never look at the programs. Some schools over work thier staff so much that you are getting a 28-29-30 year old arm out a a 22 year old body.

But let me be clear about my GM hat...

I want to buy College and High School bats. Starting pitcher projections are high school guys or college bullpen with upside. I tend to rank college pitchers lower than most because they honestly scare me in long term projections.

For every Brian Matusz, there is a Wade Townsend. For every Strasburg, there is a Mark Prior. They might have the best stuff, but you have no control for 3 years on how they run their day to day routines and that is a wildcard I do not want in my deck too often.

[DougDE]

Depends on the individual situation. Ryan Berry in the 9th round, for an above slot bonus, may be a good deal and the right time to do it. On the other hand, Wade Townsend in the 1st rd is a mistake. Even if we had signed him. I dont think you can ever say "never", it just depends on the risk and $, and individual player

[Don]

I am not against Purke as a player, I just think you have to pigeon hole him in a certain role for long term success. He could be a solid LOOGY, setup, or closer. His jerky delivery should be limited in innings and overall pitches limited. It limits his chances of injury and keeps him in a lineup longer.

Does that mean he is not a top five, it depends on his signability and surrounding talent level. Drew Storen was only a top pick because he was a "safe" option to sign cheap, but on talent he was a late first round pick.

Purke could still be a high selection, but if he wants the moon with starter money the kid could drop and drop hard.

[allstar1579]

Can't say I agree with your "Never draft a pitcher from Rice" statement. Ryan Berry is from Rice.

And his arm was abused before we drafted him. This is why we got him in the 9th. As Don said, there are a few programs that are like that, and it's the risk HS pitchers take by going to college. It's the job of the college coaches to win and protect their own jobs, not to properly develop talent or take care of 18 year old arms. Some programs are more notorious for letting kids overthrow and blow the ball past undeveloped college hitters for current success against future growth. I just think it's amusing that HS kids still use a commitment to Rice as a bargaining chip because 99% of the scouting world knows they are not coming out of there unscathed, and are going to cost themselves money.

[allstar1579]

I am not against Purke as a player, I just think you have to pigeon hole him in a certain role for long term success. He could be a solid LOOGY, setup, or closer. His jerky delivery should be limited in innings and overall pitches limited. It limits his chances of injury and keeps him in a lineup longer.

Does that mean he is not a top five, it depends on his signability and surrounding talent level. Drew Storen was only a top pick because he was a "safe" option to sign cheap, but on talent he was a late first round pick.

Purke could still be a high selection, but if he wants the moon with starter money the kid could drop and drop hard.

Agreed. I think if he realizes that his best chance for success lies in the BP where he can keep that velocity in the high 90s and limit the damage of a herky jerky delivery. The alternative is some team will take him, rework his delivery which will drop the velocity and it will take a while for him to learn how to pitch rather than just throw. It will be a slower path to the majors, and that is assuming no injury.

[Don]

I had a tape sent to me this morning of Francisco Lindor and I wonder if the Orioles might draft another shortstop. I do not say this lightly, but he has better hands than most major league shortstops already. I watched him pick a play and my jaw dropped to the floor.

I want to see more tape on him and see how he advaced at the plate, but I am already sold of at least a 75 on defense. He looked good in the box, but I prefer to watch BP a few times before I want to see game tape. I was told that he turned on a solid fastball to the tune of 425 ft over right-center field a few days back.

[Don]

Jordan - Jackie Bradley is having a solid start to the season for USC. It could bump him up if he continues to display more than power at the plate and an all around bat. If he can improve at the plate, he could be one of the first College outfielder taken in the draft.

[allstar1579]

I had a tape sent to me this morning of Francisco Lindor and I wonder if the Orioles might draft another shortstop. I do not say this lightly, but he has better hands than most major league shortstops already. I watched him pick a play and my jaw dropped to the floor.

I want to see more tape on him and see how he advaced at the plate, but I am already sold of at least a 75 on defense. He looked good in the box, but I prefer to watch BP a few times before I want to see game tape. I was told that he turned on a solid fastball to the tune of 425 ft over right-center field a few days back.

I like Lindor a lot too, I was thinking today I could see them take him too, and move Manny to 3rd, with Lindor much more likely to stick at SS. Won't be QUITE the hitter Manny should be, but he'll have some decent pop from SS. Reminds me of Bordick.

[Shorebirdfan]

So Taylor Jungmann is off to a great start throwing back to back shutouts. I know the mechanics are not the cleanest, but seems like lots of upside. Strong fastball, decent slider and change. How high can this kid take himself up the draft board?

[Don]

Seeing the depth this year is going to be pitching, I expect a position player in the first slot. Unless somehow Cole is available for the Orioles selection I suspect it will be one of three players.

Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bubba Starling
Francisco Lindor