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A Look at the Current State of the Orioles Minor League System

A Look at the Current State of the Orioles Minor League System

PostPost #1 by Jordan Tuwiner » August 8th, 2012, 11:33 pm

Now that all of the 2012 picks have been signed, we have a look at what the Orioles system will look like going into the 2013 season.

Here's a look at the Orioles farm system and where it might stack up against the other 29 teams.

All I'm doing here is using the same method that Doug Gray used at Minor League Ball.

Each year, John Sickels ranks each team's top 20 prospects and assigns each a grade. Using these grades and rankings, Victor Wang at The Hardball Times found these values for different rankings and grades of both pitchers and hitters:

Image

I added the adjustment Doug used:

Now I did have to make some adjustments. As we can see, Pitching prospects in the 11-50 range tend to be more valuable than those in the Top 10. Since that doesn’t actually make much sense, I made every pitcher graded as a B+ or better worth the same "average" value of 14.2M.


These are the values I used in this total (in $):

Image

I used the rankings from our combined mid-season lists and gave grades as I saw fit:

Image

As you can see in the chart, the total value is $122 million. That would have put them as the 11th best farm system on last year's list. The O's were #18 on this list last year.

Of course this could change even more depending on how you grade some of these players.

There are flaws with every system, but this should give you an accurate idea of the current state of the Orioles farm system.
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Re: A Look at the Current State of the Orioles Minor League System

PostPost #2 by Matt P » August 8th, 2012, 11:42 pm

Going to have to take $32.5 million off if Manny is in Baltimore the rest of the year.
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Re: A Look at the Current State of the Orioles Minor League System

PostPost #3 by Baysox347 » August 8th, 2012, 11:46 pm

This is some interesting stuff. I appreciate you doing the research.

What exactly to the dollar values represent and how were the calculated?
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Re: A Look at the Current State of the Orioles Minor League System

PostPost #4 by Jordan Tuwiner » August 8th, 2012, 11:49 pm

Baysox347 wrote:This is some interesting stuff. I appreciate you doing the research.

What exactly to the dollar values represent and how were the calculated?

The guy at HBT found each grade/rank's average WAB (nearly the same as WAR) contribution in the player's first 6 years. BTB then used those values and turned it into $/WAR to find the average $ value contributed.

Hope that helps.
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Re: A Look at the Current State of the Orioles Minor League System

PostPost #5 by Baysox347 » August 9th, 2012, 3:21 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:The guy at HBT found each grade/rank's average WAB (nearly the same as WAR) contribution in the player's first 6 years. BTB then used those values and turned it into $/WAR to find the average $ value contributed.

Hope that helps.

Thanks. I would be curious to see this study re-done in order to include guys like Strasburg, etc. Value for pitchers would certainly be higher, and WAR$ is a bit more now due to inflation...
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Re: A Look at the Current State of the Orioles Minor League System

PostPost #6 by Baysox347 » August 9th, 2012, 3:22 pm

Matt P wrote:Going to have to take $32.5 million off if Manny is in Baltimore the rest of the year.

If he stays for the rest of the season...we are probably looking at 170 or so at-bats. So, yeah, he is probably not considered a prospect anymore after this season.
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