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Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #1 by legmason » August 8th, 2012, 3:05 pm

I'm likely in the minority on this post but I think Reynolds has a chance to salvage his season and turn in a line closer to his track record. I'm not necessarily a big fan of Mark Reynolds but what I am a fan of is examining established major league player's track records over the course of their career rather than down months or in Reynolds' case, a down year. Insert jokes about Reynolds not being an established major league ball player here.

Even though I'm more coming at this from a devil's advocate angle I thought it would be fun to consider what Mark Reynolds' line would look like IF he got hot for the remainder of the season. The fact is that over the last 4 years he's never hit less than 28 home runs and while I don't think there's anyway he does that this year he's streaky enough to end up with 20 plus bombs at the end of September.

He's so streaky and has such above average power that it wouldn't take long to bring his numbers up. His average is only 10 points lower than where it ended last year and although he won't hit 37 home runs this year I could see him going on a hot streak and bashing another 12 over the next two months.

August typically is Reynolds' best month of his career in several key statistical categories.

BABIP is .338 - higher than any other month
Slugging % is .520 - higher than any other month
HR total is 35 - also higher than any other month

If he has a strong August he could be the free agent bat we needed to trade for to make a serious run at a playoff spot.
Again, I'm still not a huge Reynolds fan, don't get me wrong, but he's simply not as bad as he has looked this year and his track record shows that. Just saying.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #2 by Jordan Tuwiner » August 8th, 2012, 3:16 pm

If his HR/FB% was near his career normal his HR total would be fine.

Whether there is slightly less loft in his swing this year could be the reason. I don't know though.

If his Hr/FB% is due to randomness things could definitely turn around in a hurry. His BABIP is actually very high this year, for him, and his BB% and K% are almost the same as last year.

I have been one who has wanted others to play over Reynolds. I would of course love to see him turn things around.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #3 by ofahn » August 8th, 2012, 3:30 pm

legmason wrote:He's so streaky and has such above average power that it wouldn't take long to bring his numbers up


You are ABSOLUTELY right about that; however, I see him as capable of being a "black hole" in the lineup that could cost us just enough games that we don't make the playoffs.

What I'm trying to say is that we don't need these kind of streaky hitters and will never be a legitimate playoff team until we have a lineup that only has one or two.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #4 by Matt P » August 8th, 2012, 4:01 pm

He has three doubles in the past 2 games.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #5 by David » August 8th, 2012, 4:14 pm

I think Reynolds is about to go on a tear.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #6 by ofahn » August 8th, 2012, 4:24 pm

Matt P wrote:He has three doubles in the past 2 games.


I don't understand how that is relevant to the bigger concern.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #7 by legmason » August 8th, 2012, 4:32 pm

ofahn wrote:
You are ABSOLUTELY right about that; however, I see him as capable of being a "black hole" in the lineup that could cost us just enough games that we don't make the playoffs.

What I'm trying to say is that we don't need these kind of streaky hitters and will never be a legitimate playoff team until we have a lineup that only has one or two.


I totally agree. One of the reasons I'm glad we don't still have Luke Scott. Can you imagine if Davis, Scott and Reynolds batted back to back to back? That could be maddening for some stretches!
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #8 by OriolesRedskins28 » August 8th, 2012, 4:56 pm

ofahn wrote:You are ABSOLUTELY right about that; however, I see him as capable of being a "black hole" in the lineup that could cost us just enough games that we don't make the playoffs.


EXACTLY. When he's off he is a BLACK HOLE. Runner on 3rd with one out and a slumping Reynolds steps up, you know that run is not coming home. Hopefully he does get on a roll for the rest of the season but there is always the risk that he will be a black hole for extended stretches which would be devastating for this already streaky lineup.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #9 by Matt P » August 8th, 2012, 5:05 pm

ofahn wrote:
I don't understand how that is relevant to the bigger concern.

He's already starting to turn it around is what I was implying.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #10 by birdwatcher55 » August 8th, 2012, 5:14 pm

All I am looking for at this point is improving his OBP and play solid defense at 1B. If he starts raining homers, then we're playing with house money 8-)
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #11 by ofahn » August 8th, 2012, 5:21 pm

Matt P wrote:He's already starting to turn it around is what I was implying.


I would rest a lot easier if I knew this wasn't a temporary blip.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #12 by Matt P » August 8th, 2012, 6:07 pm

ofahn wrote:
I would rest a lot easier if I knew this wasn't a temporary blip.

Maybe, but he's got 3 straight games he made a big impact in. Sunday he scored the go ahead run in the 10th, Monday he went 3-3 with 2 doubles, the first RBI of the game, and a run scored, and last night he started the rally in the 7th inning with a leadoff double. Not to mention all the great defensive plays he has been making.
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #13 by DougDE » August 8th, 2012, 7:25 pm

Matt P wrote:Maybe, but he's got 3 straight games he made a big impact in. Sunday he scored the go ahead run in the 10th, Monday he went 3-3 with 2 doubles, the first RBI of the game, and a run scored, and last night he started the rally in the 7th inning with a leadoff double. Not to mention all the great defensive plays he has been making.

Just a coincidence but this was the post I was reading as Mark Reynolds just drove that ball over the right center field wall. Im really starting to feel like these boys might make September fun. If Reynolds can bring the power back for 6 weeks it really would feel like we made a trade for a bat
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Re: Is there time for Reynolds to turn it around?

PostPost #14 by Matt P » August 8th, 2012, 8:04 pm

DougDE wrote:Just a coincidence but this was the post I was reading as Mark Reynolds just drove that ball over the right center field wall. Im really starting to feel like these boys might make September fun. If Reynolds can bring the power back for 6 weeks it really would feel like we made a trade for a bat

Reynolds, Wieters, and Hardy have all looked much better at the plate recently. If 2 of them can continue this offense can be dangerous, if all 3 can the Yankees better take notice.
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