More on the run differential

[legmason]

Just read an interesting article done by ESPN on the O's and their not so pretty run differential.

While I don't think the run differential tells the whole story I still find it's a nice snapshot of how a team has performed over the course of a year. If the Orioles make the playoffs with a run differential around minus 54 they certainly would have done something historically impressive.

My overall take on the O's and why their run differential is somehow worse than their record shows is related to all of the roster moves they've made this year. Their rotation has changed a ton and has had to rely on young pitching. The only consistent has been the surprising Wei-Yin Chen. At times they've played like a .500 or less team and other times they've played like a playoff team. Roberts was injured, then here, then inured again. They've had about 11 different people in left field alone. Markakis was out for a period of time and struggled to start the year. Wieters and Davis have both been streaky and we don't have a true third basemen. Their roster wasn't poised for a World Series run at the beginning of the year like the Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, and Angels rosters were. Many of our pieces are inconsistent which leads to some stellar wins but it also leads to being on the wrong end of some blow outs.

Duquette has made some questionable moves but you have to give him credit for all of his tweaking and tireless efforts to improve the team. I've never seen so many rosters moves in my life.

All in all, what this tells me is that we should all be excited about the direction and the future of this team. Our farm system is improving and many of our top young prospects are making progress. Some of our players currently on the major league roster won't be here next year but the core of this team is learning how to win close games under the pressure of the extra innings. For them to succeed in the AL east that is crucial and it's a very promising sign for the future.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/ ... he-orioles

[Matt P]

I tried listening to to the Baseball Today podcast and they are ridiculous. Karabell hates the O's with a passion for some reason. The only time I listen to it is the days Keith Law is on and even that is hard to listen to but there is nothing else to listen to at work at 1am.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Great point about the shuffling of the team. That is a factor that I have not seen discussed.

After last night's game I think a lot of people are finally beginning to see that they simply play above what the stats say.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I tried listening to to the Baseball Today podcast and they are ridiculous. Karabell hates the O's with a passion for some reason. The only time I listen to it is the days Keith Law is on and even that is hard to listen to but there is nothing else to listen to at work at 1am.

What did Karabell say?

[Matt P]

What did Karabell say?

Just in general he always makes a snarky remark about the O's. If they win you can tell he rolls his eyes as soon as whoever is co-hosting brings it up and when they lose he has that "I told you so" attitude. He still thinks they finish in last. A month or two ago he was bashing on people who thought the O's would stay in it for the long run saying the only reason they are saying that is so that if they do end up sticking around they can say "I told you so".

I'm gonna download this weeks episodes even though Law isn't on at all and give them a listen at work sometime on Friday or Saturday I'll post what they say.

[ofahn]

I always that thought that ESPN was a Yankees/Red Sox advocacy group.

[osforlife]

I think run differential is a valuable stat but I wouldn't put too much into it.
We don't blow many people out. One has to remember that you feel more comfortable hitting with a 5 run lead than down by 1. Sometimes when you feel more comfortable, you tend to ease up.When you are down by 1 as opposed to up by 5, you'd like to get that hit a bit more. Also, we get blown out alot. Sometimes are young starters just don't have it and the defense isn't really helping their cause(Tillman's start in Minnesota come to mind). And let's be honest, who wants to hit down 10 runs. You feel as if the game is already over. Teams just play harder when its a close game.

[osforlife]

Also, Sunday vs. Royals. Our bullpen through 4 innings, letting no his and one walk. Thats how we win close games.

[ofahn]

A perfect example of how run differential is not as telling with this team is the four game series with Royals. We split four games BUT scored two less runs then them. Using the same basic formula we could go 24 - 23 in our last 47 games but we would have a MINUS Run Differential of between 22 and 23. That record (86 wins) MIGHT give us a wild card berth.

Go figure.

[Matt P]

A perfect example of how run differential is not as telling with this team is the four game series with Royals. We split four games BUT scored two less runs then them. Using the same basic formula we could go 24 - 23 in our last 47 games but we would have a MINUS Run Differential of between 22 and 23. That record (86 wins) MIGHT give us a wild card berth.

Go figure.

Same thing happened in the Yankees series at New York. I was told it was silly to talk about a 3 game size though, hopefully for you a 4 game size is big enough.

[ofahn]

Same thing happened in the Yankees series at New York. I was told it was silly to talk about a 3 game size though, hopefully for you a 4 game size is big enough.

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