"O's posteason dream all but impossible" - SI.com

[Matt P]

http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/06/baltimore- ... ason-drea/

Pretty crazy how this team continues to defy logic and keeps winning.

[A_K]

Statistical outliers don't defy logic or contradict existing statistical rationale. Any valid data set has a small but identifiable group of outliers. At this point, that's all the Orioles are. What these numbers tell us isn't that the Orioles have captured some magical skill set that allows them to evade expectations, but instead that their true talent level is worse than the standings suggest. Of course that doesn't mean we, as fans, should enjoy it any less.

[ofahn]

Statistical outliers don't defy logic or contradict existing statistical rationale. Any valid data set has a small but identifiable group of outliers. At this point, that's all the Orioles are. What these numbers tell us isn't that the Orioles have captured some magical skill set that allows them to evade expectations, but instead that their true talent level is worse than the standings suggest. Of course that doesn't mean we, as fans, should enjoy it any less.

Your analysis is logical but I have a different take on those same numbers.

This has been a .500 team all season. That fact that they were, at one time, twelve games over .500 had a lot to do with the schedule and cyclical player performances.

The run differential deficit is symptomatic of the blow outs that come from developing young pitching and was, IMO, aggravated by those same young pitchers being unprepared along with the periodic lack of a long reliever. The FO's willingness (or ability) to acquire several more legitimate veteran SPs over the winter so that ALL of our young pitchers could have started the year working with Rick Peterson at AAA may have mitigated some of those blow outs. Add to that a shaky and inconsistent defense and the numbers start to make sense. Unearned runs don't show up in a team ERA but they show up in a negative run differential.

If this team gels and becomes a consistently good at pitching, hitting, and defense over the next six weeks instead of the inconsistent one they have been all year then they could win between 90 and 92 games. That probably means a Wild Card spot. Otherwise, I see them finishing the year at around 85 wins.

[Matt P]

That's a great point about the unearned runs and the negative run differential.

They have been playing much better defense of late. Betemit has been improving at 3B and Reynolds has been great at 1B. Andino is a defensive upgrade at 3B too. The LF platoon of Ford and McLouth greatly improves the LF defense over Chris Davis too. Overall, even though they lead the league in errors, they are not one of the worst defensive teams in the league IMO.

[ofahn]

even though they lead the league in errors, they are not one of the worst defensive teams in the league IMO

That statistic indicates they they WERE a very bad defensive team, but does not mean they are one NOW.

[Rising O's]

Watch the impossible continue to happen tonight on MLB's free game of the day.

[Matt P]

That statistic indicates they they WERE a very bad defensive team, but does not mean they are one NOW.

I could be wrong but I remember a month or two ago reading a thread on another forum that stated according to UZR and other metrics that the team defense was middle of the pack.

[ofahn]

I could be wrong but I remember a month or two ago reading a thread on another forum that stated according to UZR and other metrics that the team defense was middle of the pack.

Because I see good defense as a key component to a winning team I would view "middle of the pack" as a very bad defensive team.

[birdwatcher55]

I would sleep better tonight if we could add another big bat to the lineup

[Matt P]

On the day this article is published they come back from down by 5 runs twice and win in extras