The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

[BuckMagic]

This team is insane!

They are just simply outplaying their WAR and run differential and they do it consistently! So many analysts and stat guys just point to it and say.....oh this team won't continue. They are wrooong.

It's time to believe in this team.

[ofahn]

This team is insane!

They are just simply outplaying their WAR and run differential and they do it consistently! So many analysts and stat guys just point to it and say.....oh this team won't continue. They are wrooong.

It's time to believe in this team.

This is worth reading.

http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/06/baltimore- ... mlb_t11_a0

[TuckerBlair89]

I have always been an advocate that Run differential is often overblown. It has some meaning, but not an end-all stat.

The Orioles are clearly much better than people thought, that's for sure.
It's weird, they have these blowout games that just skew it so far negative. But they don't play that bad always (as their record indicates). There are still going to be people talking negatively about them just for that fact. People hold onto statistics so hard that they start to only see them as a ways to think.

I'm just going to enjoy the success. Who cares what the run differential is. The Orioles players surely don't right now.


/e That SI article is exactly what I am talking about.

[ofahn]

I have always been an advocate that Run differential is often overblown. It has some meaning, but not an end-all stat.

Frankly, that article reinforced my opinion that Buck is the Manager of the Year.

[Matt P]

Run differential is to team stats as W/L is to pitchers stats as they are stats that are really pointless. They took 2 out of 3 in NY and had a negative run differential for the series.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Run differential is to team stats as W/L is to pitchers stats as they are stats that are really pointless. They took 2 out of 3 in NY and had a negative run differential for the series.

It's not a stat that should be used as perfect evidence but it can hint at things to come.

Not pointless at all.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Run differential is to team stats as W/L is to pitchers stats as they are stats that are really pointless. They took 2 out of 3 in NY and had a negative run differential for the series.

I think it has a .80 something correlation with actual win %. It's pretty accurate, slightly less so than fWAR.

[Matt P]

It's not a stat that should be used as perfect evidence but it can hint at things to come.

Not pointless at all.

Which one are you talking about?

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Which one are you talking about?

Run differential. I do agree that W/L for pitchers is pointless.

[Matt P]

Run differential. I do agree that W/L for pitchers is pointless.

I don't see it. Take the Yankees series for example as they had a negative run differential but won 2 out of 3. I guess for a team that is consistent it works but for a team like the Orioles it is pointless.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I don't see it. Take the Yankees series for example as they had a negative run differential but won 2 out of 3. I guess for a team that is consistent it works but for a team like the Orioles it is pointless.

In the Orioles case I think it is pointless at this point. In general though it is not a pointless stats. And using it in a sample size of three games is silly.

[Matt P]

In the Orioles case I think it is pointless at this point. In general though it is not a pointless stats. And using it in a sample size of three games is silly.

I was using that as a more recent occurrence of it not working for the Orioles rather than bringing up their overall differential which was already mentioned in this thread.