Welcome to the Orioles Nation Forums! Like most online communities, you must register to post on our message board. However, posting is free--it always will be--and registration is a simple process. Become part of the growing Orioles Nation community and register now!

The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #1 by BuckMagic » August 6th, 2012, 9:47 pm

This team is insane!

They are just simply outplaying their WAR and run differential and they do it consistently! So many analysts and stat guys just point to it and say.....oh this team won't continue. They are wrooong.

It's time to believe in this team.
User avatar
BuckMagic
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 323
Joined: September 2010
Reputation Score: 5

Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #2 by ofahn » August 6th, 2012, 9:51 pm

BuckMagic wrote:This team is insane!

They are just simply outplaying their WAR and run differential and they do it consistently! So many analysts and stat guys just point to it and say.....oh this team won't continue. They are wrooong.

It's time to believe in this team.


This is worth reading.

http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/06/baltimore- ... mlb_t11_a0
User avatar
ofahn
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 4371
Joined: May 2011
Reputation Score: 85

Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » August 6th, 2012, 9:53 pm

I have always been an advocate that Run differential is often overblown. It has some meaning, but not an end-all stat.

The Orioles are clearly much better than people thought, that's for sure.
It's weird, they have these blowout games that just skew it so far negative. But they don't play that bad always (as their record indicates). There are still going to be people talking negatively about them just for that fact. People hold onto statistics so hard that they start to only see them as a ways to think.

I'm just going to enjoy the success. Who cares what the run differential is. The Orioles players surely don't right now.


/e That SI article is exactly what I am talking about.
User avatar
Tucker Blair
Orioles Nation Staff
Executive Editor
 
Posts: 1574
Joined: October 2011
Location: Elkridge, MD
Reputation Score: 43

Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #4 by ofahn » August 6th, 2012, 9:56 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I have always been an advocate that Run differential is often overblown. It has some meaning, but not an end-all stat.


Frankly, that article reinforced my opinion that Buck is the Manager of the Year.
User avatar
ofahn
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 4371
Joined: May 2011
Reputation Score: 85

Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #5 by Matt P » August 6th, 2012, 10:26 pm

Run differential is to team stats as W/L is to pitchers stats as they are stats that are really pointless. They took 2 out of 3 in NY and had a negative run differential for the series.
Matt P
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1717
Joined: October 2011
Location: Pennsylvania
Reputation Score: 37

Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #6 by Jordan Tuwiner » August 6th, 2012, 10:47 pm

Matt P wrote:Run differential is to team stats as W/L is to pitchers stats as they are stats that are really pointless. They took 2 out of 3 in NY and had a negative run differential for the series.

It's not a stat that should be used as perfect evidence but it can hint at things to come.

Not pointless at all.
User avatar
Jordan Tuwiner
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 2588
Joined: September 2010
Location: Israel
Reputation Score: 57



Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #7 by Jordan Tuwiner » August 6th, 2012, 10:52 pm

Matt P wrote:Run differential is to team stats as W/L is to pitchers stats as they are stats that are really pointless. They took 2 out of 3 in NY and had a negative run differential for the series.

I think it has a .80 something correlation with actual win %. It's pretty accurate, slightly less so than fWAR.
User avatar
Jordan Tuwiner
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 2588
Joined: September 2010
Location: Israel
Reputation Score: 57



Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #8 by Matt P » August 6th, 2012, 10:56 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:It's not a stat that should be used as perfect evidence but it can hint at things to come.

Not pointless at all.


Which one are you talking about?
Matt P
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1717
Joined: October 2011
Location: Pennsylvania
Reputation Score: 37

Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #9 by Jordan Tuwiner » August 6th, 2012, 10:57 pm

Matt P wrote:
Which one are you talking about?

Run differential. I do agree that W/L for pitchers is pointless.
User avatar
Jordan Tuwiner
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 2588
Joined: September 2010
Location: Israel
Reputation Score: 57



Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #10 by Matt P » August 6th, 2012, 11:01 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:Run differential. I do agree that W/L for pitchers is pointless.


I don't see it. Take the Yankees series for example as they had a negative run differential but won 2 out of 3. I guess for a team that is consistent it works but for a team like the Orioles it is pointless.
Matt P
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1717
Joined: October 2011
Location: Pennsylvania
Reputation Score: 37

Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #11 by Jordan Tuwiner » August 6th, 2012, 11:04 pm

Matt P wrote:
I don't see it. Take the Yankees series for example as they had a negative run differential but won 2 out of 3. I guess for a team that is consistent it works but for a team like the Orioles it is pointless.

In the Orioles case I think it is pointless at this point. In general though it is not a pointless stats. And using it in a sample size of three games is silly.
User avatar
Jordan Tuwiner
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 2588
Joined: September 2010
Location: Israel
Reputation Score: 57



Re: The Orioles are somehow better than WAR and run differential

PostPost #12 by Matt P » August 6th, 2012, 11:07 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:In the Orioles case I think it is pointless at this point. In general though it is not a pointless stats. And using it in a sample size of three games is silly.

I was using that as a more recent occurrence of it not working for the Orioles rather than bringing up their overall differential which was already mentioned in this thread.
Matt P
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1717
Joined: October 2011
Location: Pennsylvania
Reputation Score: 37



Return to Baltimore Orioles

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests