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Looking over past 6 drafts

Looking over past 6 drafts

PostPost #1 by Don » February 16th, 2011, 12:27 pm

In the school of baseball, you consider a "great" draft for a team seeing one advance as an everyday major league player. It is considered "good" for a team when at least two advance to the major leagues. If you produce anything more, people start getting promoted or move clubs quickly.

2005 Draft - While it has not been great at the top with Snyder, it did produce 4 players to the big leagues and two regular pitchers. Garrett Olson is still in the bullpen and David Hernandez could be a 10 year relief pitcher in baseball. Nolan Riemold can still be an everyday player and Snyder can still be a solid bench or role player.

2006 Draft - The Joe Jordan killer with Rowell, but this is not his fault and more of the strategic regiem. I know the scouts wanted to Drew Stubbs in the worse way after losing out on Jay Bruce the year before. The brass wanted a bat, but the scouts wanted Max Scherzer (which would have been better for the loss of the sandwhich pick of Lincecum - still label on him was off on 31 teams). This draft has still produced Jason Berken, Zac Britton with a few others that could one day fill out on a major league roster.

2007 Draft - I had said before this was the best pick on the board. If the Pirates were selecting him, the scouts were going to take Jayson Heyward. I hope he proves baseball prospectus wrong and finally hits the way in the minors and he turns on the future all star role for this team. This draft includes Arrieta already playing significant roles. Bascom, Mahoney, and Angle could fill minor roles for the Orioles. Seeing non-signee Dan Klien was still grabbed for 2010, this could go down as one of the greatest Orioles drafts in history.

2008 Draft - Another no brainer should hoist a Cy Young trophy one day in Brian Matusz. Avery and Hoes are showing alot of potential and should be key everyday players for the Orioles in the next few seasons. There are at least 5 other players that have shown alot at to this point and could see time with the Orioles.

2009 Draft - This is a wait and see draft, but there is a great deal of talent with this class. If it pans out on at least on a few, this could be special as well. I count a half a dozen of pitchers that could be high to mid rotation starters.

2010 Draft - Way too early to tell.


Overall, people that know baseball will clearly tell you that the Orioles have been one of the better teams in this department over the last 5 years. It simply hurts that the other four AL East teams are just as good as the Orioles with finding multiple players per draft, but it beats the 1999 Draft cringe that single handily crimpled the Orioles for almost a decade.
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Re: Looking over past 6 drafts

PostPost #2 by Jordan Tuwiner » February 18th, 2011, 12:38 pm

Even without Rowell, Britton makes that draft look solid. Beato and Adams have some potential as well.
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Re: Looking over past 6 drafts

PostPost #3 by Don » February 19th, 2011, 12:07 pm

I agree. You never need to hit the first round pick, if you have solid scouts that can pick a part later round potential types. I know 100% they wanted Drew Stubbs and I will not dictate who picked Rowell, but he was not the choice of a few major voices that fill the draft room. They did not feel Lincecum would stay a starter, but was going to be a solid pitcher. They felt Max had it all and could be a dominate right hander. It is still too early, but Max could have at least had a solid career that would make the common orioles fans not bash the system for picking Bill.

Bill is a nice guy and I still feel that he will click someday, somewhere. I thought alot of Werth too and why he never really hit his stride. Rowell has that chance, but I feel a new scene is the only way he will ever see it.

I give Jordan and his staff alot of credit finding guys. It is in my opinion one of the better scouting staffs in the majors. There was just issues inside the warehouse with confliting visions on how to produce a winning ballclub. If the Orioles drafted from 1999 - 2004 in a similar path, they may have been the Rays of the past few seasons instead of what was displayed recently.

These drafts have a number of current Orioles and others in baseball. It shows a great deal of success with the scouting department and the new changes in player development. By no means am I completely happy with everything I seen over the last few years, but it has improved.
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Re: Looking over past 6 drafts

PostPost #4 by allstar1579 » February 21st, 2011, 11:46 am

I'm going to disagree and say that for someone to keep their job, they in fact DO need to hit on those first rounders. They are the easiest picks, more coverage, higher profile, more info. To miss that bad on one of those just isn't good at all. If you are missing first round but hitting at 70% the rest of the draft (30% is normal) then ok sure, no problem, but since that does not happen, you do need to hit on that high profile star player in the first.

I'd also like to know if you have a source for all these summaries of how the org and scouts felt about each pick, just because I know guys on both sides, and your assessments are way off from what I know to be said. 2007 has 2 really solid picks, a bunch of busts, and some AAAA players. I'm holding off voting on Mahoney yet because he needs to show me another year like last year at a higher level, but starting off with a serious wrist injury isn't a good sign.

It's easy to try to find the silver lining in a lot of these drafts, but you usually don't know what you have for a few years after, and they have been ignoring some really good players still on the table for money issues, only to spend the same amount later on by throwing more money at players than they should be getting. If the Red Sox, Royals and Rays can draft the way we have been lately, why can't we?

I don't know if I'd go so far as saying it has improved...2009 is looking like the worst of the bunch,
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Re: Looking over past 6 drafts

PostPost #5 by Don » February 21st, 2011, 1:40 pm

We will agree to disagree because Joe and staff have done a tremendous job considering that the organization from top to bottom was almost "old mother cupboard".

First round is a key to pick a a top tier prospect, but the rate is still 50% of a player making it to the majors. It is in the 30% range that the pick lasts over 3 seasons in the majors. It is the best to hit on the top five rounds because the success rate drops off the charts at this point. The Orioles have gone and picked players that were rated as top round talent, but slide due to signability, injury, etc... concerns over the last few seasons.

Still, the goal of any draft is to find two players or more that will show the ability to fit on the 25 man roster one day. It does not matter where they come from when the organization is concerned. Yes, I bet they wish this and wish that with some of the first round picks, but they have still found major leaguers each season. I will take a missed first round every season if I can find 3/4 later picks that can become everyday players.

And when you speak of other clubs realize this little key Red Sox Youkilis 8th round pick, Pedroria 2nd, Ellsbury 1st, Lowrie sandwhich pick, Anderson 18th, Lester 2nd, Buchholz sandwhich, Paplebon 4th. You build with solid drafts. Thier highest pick Ellsbury is the least signficant of the bunch. Rays are built with alot of mid-round talent as well as the golden first rounds.

You want to hit the top rounds, but ultimately you want to hit each season with a few quality players no matter the string attached to the bonus.
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Re: Looking over past 6 drafts

PostPost #6 by Don » February 21st, 2011, 2:00 pm

As for the 2006 draft, Jordan wanted Bill Rowell, but he was not "his" first choice. The board did not go as planned in thier minds as they were hoping that either Kershaw or Stubbs were in that ninth slot. Some voices at 9 were for Bard, Lincecum, and Scherzer, but Jordan went with Rowell for the power bat.

It is what it is at this point. They still have two pitchers that will be on the 2011 roster, Berken and Britton. Adams, Beato, Egan, and Henson could fill a role for the Orioles or another organization in the near future as well.

Does it stink that Tim Lincecum is wearing the wrong Orange and Black uniforms? Yes Can re-write history, well at least this kind of history.
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