Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

[Don]

Keith Law has come out with his list of top players for the 2011 Rule 4 player entry draft, it should surprise a few that one name has dropped. So far, Matt Purke is no longer seen as starting material because of his delivery and slot angle that reminds alot of local product Tony Saunders.

1. Anthony Rendon 3B - Rice
2. George Springer OF - UConn
3. Gerritt Cole RHP - UCLA
4. Bubba Starling CF/P - High School
5. Sonny Gray RHP - Vanny
6. Matt Barnes LHP - UConn
7. Matt Purke LHP - TCU
8. Francisco Lindor SS - High School
9. Archie Bradley - RHP - High School
10. Blake Swihart C - High School

Here is the total Top 50 (subscription required)
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=FutureFifty1.0


Notes on talked about players on the forum:

1. Daniel Norris ranked 21 - Not as physical as a Howard or a Bradley or as polished as Bundy, but he'll show above-average velocity with some downhill plane.

2. Dylan Bundy ranked 13 - Brother of Orioles farmhand Bobby Bundy, Dylan will show four pitches and has been up to 95 in the past.

3. Travis Harrison ranked 30 - Perhaps SoCal's best pure bat among preps, Harrison can hit and should hit for power, but he's somewhat slow-twitch and could be ticketed for first base.

[Shorebirdfan]

Wow, I thought everyone had Purke projecting higher. Obviously we still have to play the season and rarely does this hold anywhere near form once someone raelizes they have to write a check, but all things being equal, I'll settle for Purke in our spot.

[legmason]

Yeah I've read a little recently that Purke is now viewed as a reliever by many scouts instead of a starter. I'd still take him if he was there at four. although I'm really hoping that Rendon slips due to injury concerns and falls into our laps...not sure how likely that's looking at this point but there's still a lot of baseball to be played before the draft. things can change. you never know.

[Don]

I think it was on here where I informed my review of Bubba Starling. I was given tape and asked for an assessment of Starling at the plate. Bryce Harper might have a bit more pop and power, but I think Bubba Starling is a 70/70/70/65/60 guy that I see would become a one day future All-Star centerfielder. He has a rare blend of contact, power, and speed that I have not seen from a high school prospect in almost a decade. I compare him with Josh Hamilton rather easily. It would not shock me one bit to see him as the top drafted player, if he lets everyone know that football is no longer in his system and he would be 100% on board with baseball.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Was OF Jackie Bradley Jr. on the list? If Rendon, Cole and Purke are gone by pick #4 Bradley's in my top 3.

[Don]

Jackie is rated 15th. I am surprised your high on him over Starling and for that matter Shawn Dunston Jr. He plays a fine centerfield for the Gamecocks, but it is the hills or bench currently in his bat. I also feel he has "framed out" as you can only become so big at 5-9 (I think 5-10 is too generous). He is a four tool guy and I cannot see him inside the top ten unless he shows better coverage at the plate.

[Don]

Jordan...I still have tape on Bubba and will ask permission to post it on here, but he is a nice setup you can see on the web. This is a parttime player and his bat is very, very, very projectable. He has some real minor changes, but size, hand speed, and quite approach to the plate; I simply wonder what could happen when 100% of his attention is geared towards baseball.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=mvPULXKU2k8#t=9s

[ShowalterPower]

Gerritt Cole today: 9IP 4H 0ER 1BB 11K (W) in a 1-0 Bruins win over San Francisco.

[Shorebirdfan]

Gerritt Cole today: 9IP 4H 0ER 1BB 11K (W) in a 1-0 Bruins win over San Francisco.

One walk?!?!?!? That's it, drop him to the four spot. Guess we'd get stuck with him. SF, not the best level of opposition, but hey, those are impressive numbers no matter how you slice 'em.

[DougDE]

So far, Matt Purke is no longer seen as starting material because of his delivery and slot angle that reminds alot of local product Tony Saunders.

If this is true that he will only be a reliever there's no way the O's can take him with the fourth pick. When you're drafting that high you have to be expecting to get a top of the rotation pitcher or an everyday position player. Wasting top 5 draft picks on bullpen help will only help to assure that they will be receiving more top 5 draft picks down the road

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Here is a GIF of Purke's mechanics:



He has somewhat of an inverted-L here.

Pat Hickey wrote this on Purke's mechanics in a guest post from August:

ESPN’s Keith Law noted before the 2009 Draft that he had issues with Purke’s low-three-quarter arm slot being a concern when it comes to developing a change-up. I couldn’t agree more. It’s rare to see someone with that arm slot throw a quality and consistent change-up. He hasn’t thrown it a lot during his first two years at TCU in the same sense that he didn’t throw it a lot in high school – because he didn’t need it. While true, I do think that sets the development of the pitch back a ways compared to someone like Cole. Combining that with what has been said about his arm-slot, and I see Purke as a two-pitch guy right now and likely in the future. Those two pitches can be lethal, however. But, he needs to add more strength to his arm and shoulders to maintain velocity throughout the game to get by with two offerings. Like Cole, Purke just needs some fine-tuning as well as some strength training and he’ll be fine.

[Don]

Inverted "L" is not a huge problem that says "future arm injury".

It is the point where the elbow crests and the hand going past the 180 degree point that could dictate whether or not injury is a concern. It looks to be close to the shoulder girdle, but you need to see the sideview to clearly know if this will cause a ulnar ligament issue in the future. You can clearly see that he brings it way behind his body and places alot of stress on the subscapularis and supraspinatus as he brings it back up to release.

The massive torque is a giant concern on the whip action as well. He uses little drive and push from the lower half, almost no follow through at all. It is more arm action that anything else that makes me question his long term makeup. If he were to continue this setup, I see a lose in velocity rather quickly in his career. I fear that so much pressure falls on his cuff that he could tear and fray it overtime with ease.

Lastly, he crosses his body. I will not get into specifics, but that is a very bad thing.

This is never an exact way to say he will be injured, but history of wrongs is not on his side. He is coming from a big time program. Programs this size never truly take the time to work out the kinks unless it effects his "stuff". They are so worried about winning that long term health is not thier greatest concern and some big schools it is of no concern at all.

[allstar1579]

The bigger issue with Purke is that whipping arm action, it's a little too violent for my tastes if I'm looking to spend $5-6m. Just a little too hurky-jerky for me.

Starling is starting to creep up some boards, he's got to choose baseball or football though, and he's a little raw in the baseball skills area, but nothing some pro instruction can't clean up and the biggest plus I hear on him is that he's VERY coachable. He's somewhere between Avery and Mike Trout though, can't tell you which one he's closer to yet though, this will be a big spring for him.

[Shorebirdfan]

Anyone have the opportunity to scout Bundy? Curious if he can move up the board this far?

[allstar1579]

Not to our pick. I could see him in the 10-15 range, but I don't see him going higher than that, still has some work to do, and this is a very top heavy draft. Last year he would have gone much higher.