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2011 O's: How Much Can they Improve?

2011 O's: How Much Can they Improve?

PostPost #1 by Jordan Tuwiner » February 13th, 2011, 11:49 pm

Last year, one of baseball's biggest surprise teams, the Cincinnati Reds, lead the league in nearly every offensive category. Not only that, but they led all of baseball in oWAR (33.4). The Reds of last year actually compare a bit to the potential that you may or may not see in this year's Orioles.

http://orioles-nation.com/?p=7998

Dave gives plenty reasons for optimism in his first guest post at ON. Feel free to drop questions for Dave as I'm sure he'll be willing to drop by and respond.
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Re: 2011 O's: How Much Can they Improve?

PostPost #2 by Don » February 14th, 2011, 1:53 pm

I want to have optimism, but there are so many 'ifs" that the fanbase needs to see play out. If the team can stay out of the whirlpool tub and on the field, they have the chance to turn around the ball club.

Health and the starting pitching growth are the two biggest keys for the Orioles success this season.
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Re: 2011 O's: How Much Can they Improve?

PostPost #3 by Jordan Tuwiner » February 16th, 2011, 9:21 pm

Don wrote:I want to have optimism, but there are so many 'ifs" that the fanbase needs to see play out. If the team can stay out of the whirlpool tub and on the field, they have the chance to turn around the ball club.

Health and the starting pitching growth are the two biggest keys for the Orioles success this season.

The team added about 9 WAR in free agents/trades, so without any improvements from our young players we can expect about a 9 win improvement. That's pretty good. The Orioles offense totaled 9 WAR last year, and they added about 8 WAR of just offense. I am liking their chances for a .500 season, maybe more.
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Re: 2011 O's: How Much Can they Improve?

PostPost #4 by Don » February 17th, 2011, 4:23 pm

You have to agree Jordan that the success of this team is largely built on health and maturation. These are two of the toughest things to gauge because players make take a step back instead of a step forward. The projected 25 man roster includes alot of guys that have injury concerns, but history dictates the lineup is vastly improved.

Overall, this is still the best 25 man roster the Orioles have collected since winter of 2003, on paper.

Does the WAR translate? It is the reason they play the game on the field and not on paper. I feel the team can break the hump, if all of the right pieces fall on the board. It is still a big "IF" though.
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Re: 2011 O's: How Much Can they Improve?

PostPost #5 by Jordan Tuwiner » February 18th, 2011, 12:31 pm

Don wrote:You have to agree Jordan that the success of this team is largely built on health and maturation. These are two of the toughest things to gauge because players make take a step back instead of a step forward. The projected 25 man roster includes alot of guys that have injury concerns, but history dictates the lineup is vastly improved.

Overall, this is still the best 25 man roster the Orioles have collected since winter of 2003, on paper.

Does the WAR translate? It is the reason they play the game on the field and not on paper. I feel the team can break the hump, if all of the right pieces fall on the board. It is still a big "IF" though.

I do agree, but the additions made over the off-season almost guarantee a huge improvement on offense.

WAR is generally accurate +/- 5 wins. Read more here.
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Re: 2011 O's: How Much Can they Improve?

PostPost #6 by Don » February 18th, 2011, 1:25 pm

WAR numbers tend to hit across the board, but they are more accurate with teams that have less risk assessments, such as starting pitchers and those coming back from poor seasons due to injury. It also reads better with players that have spent a season on the current team. Fresh new free agents can turn out as X factors because it is not clearly known how they handle the new surroundings.

WAR is the best method by far as a quick assessment of how the team will perform, if everything falls in line with expectations. Most of the time, all teams fall short for one reason or another. If the pitching maturates as expected and the hitters show up as expected, I think this team could surpass 75-80 wins which fall in line with the current WAR increase.
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Re: 2011 O's: How Much Can they Improve?

PostPost #7 by Jordan Tuwiner » February 18th, 2011, 2:11 pm

The only player I really think is going to regress is Luke Scott.

Let's look at Matt Wieters for example. If you take his 2009 BABIP and make that his 2010 BABIP, he would have posted an .880 OPS last season. All of the players are so young it's hard to see them going anywhere but up. I think I am more optimistic than most, but I see no reason to believe this team can't reach .500.
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