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Prospect Watch: Joe Mahoney

Prospect Watch: Joe Mahoney

PostPost #1 by Tucker Blair » January 30th, 2012, 3:36 pm

http://entoriole.blogspot.com/2012/01/p ... honey.html
Monday, January 30, 2012
Prospect Watch: Joe Mahoney
The Orioles have a couple studs at the top of their prospect lists. But the Orioles have a few other intriguing guys in their system as well. Joey Mahoney is a big-framed first basemen that may surprise some people in the future...If he can continue to develop properly.

Mahoney is a left-handed hitter drafted in the 6th round of the 2009 draft out of the University of Richmond. At 6'6'' 240lbs, Mahoney possesses the body type that one would desire at first base. When the Orioles drafted Mahoney, they most likely projected that his big-framed body would offer plenty of power. So far that has not been the case. In five seasons, Mahoney has only 53 HR. That averages out to only 10.6 HR per season. Of course he has only reached 500 plate appearances once in his minor league career, but it shows that the Orioles are still waiting on his power to emerge. However, if you dig deeper into his body of work, you can see that maybe Mahoney IS hitting for enough power.


Here is Mahoney's ISO (Isolated Power= SLG%-Batting Average) over the past 5 seasons:
2007 (A-): .169
2008 (A) : .128
2009 (A) : .129
2010(A+): .166
2010(AA): .225
2011(AA): .213

I only listed stops through the system where he had more than 100 AB. As you can see, there is some fluctuation going on. His ISO has been trending upwards since 2010 though, indicating that he may have taken a step forward. So while his HR's are not exactly showing up, he is still proving to have power. An ISO in the .200's is very good.
Mark Reynolds led the Orioles with an ISO of .262 in 2011. He had 37 HR.
Jose Bautista led the MLB with an ISO of .306 in 2011. He had 43 HR

So maybe Mahoney is beginning to realize his potential in the power category. Of course he still will need to work on producing in other areas, but they have never seemed to have been much of a challenge. He currently has a .276/.332/.443 batting line throughout his five seasons.
His wOBA the past five seasons has been .351, .283, .356, .388, and .370.
His BABIP over the past five seasons has been .315, .278, .348, .355, and .349.

These numbers indicate that Mahoney is putting up viable enough numbers to eventually reach the majors. If you take out his 2008 season, his numbers look exceptional. The only knock is that as a first basemen, power is essential. The ability to hit the ball deep is a factor in moving up. Mahoney may be a sleeper right now in the Orioles system, but one day he could become a major league first basemen.

I like Mahoney a lot, I really hope he can continue his progression this year. Maybe even have a power breakout.
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Tucker Blair
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Re: Prospect Watch: Joe Mahoney

PostPost #2 by ofahn » January 30th, 2012, 3:48 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I like Mahoney a lot, I really hope he can continue his progression this year. Maybe even have a power breakout.


I do too.

When I listed our three power guys in BA's top thirty list viewtopic.php?f=2&t=658&start=45 that I felt had such plate discipline problems that they might not even reach the majors, I did not include Mahoney as a power guy or a bad plate discipline guy. He's more of a Mark Grace kind of hitter with better power potential. If he can put up an .850 or better OPS in at least 500 ABs at AAA this year he has a shot at making next year's team.
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Re: Prospect Watch: Joe Mahoney

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » January 30th, 2012, 4:08 pm

I think Mahoney has a real shot at doing that too. As long as he stays healthy, his progression should happen. I feel a little bit more comfortable too now with more instructors and a better developmental team in place.
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