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Arizona Fall League Thread

Re: Arizona Fall League Thread

PostPost #31 by ofahn » November 29th, 2011, 10:44 am

j.q. higgins wrote:is there any reason to put stock in mahoney and avery's numbers from the afl?


Their AFL results are consistent with the success they were showing LATE in the 2011 season.

Mahoney hit well in the 2010 season and again when he returned from an injury this year. Avery was a surprise. He started off VERY poorly in AZ and then became one of the hottest hitters in that league for a month. I don't think that's a fluke. Remember, Avery has a LOT to learn and we will get a better read on him in the 2013 season.
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Re: Arizona Fall League Thread

PostPost #32 by Don » November 29th, 2011, 12:12 pm

Mahoney has a serious hole on the out half of the plate and I think it will hinder him without addressing the concerns with his dead pull tendencies. Does this mean he cannot make it, no. It does mean that he may not be productive enough to handle first base as an everyday player. His age and production are likely making him a reserve or 25 man depth for injury.

Avery is still young enough that he can still project down the line. Too many people are writing him off, I have seen the adjustments over the years that he is slowly gaining strike zone judgement, spraying the ball with gap power (going with pitches), better at small ball. He still has a way to go for an everyday centerfielder. He must improve his first step and small aspects of his defensive (better routes, glove down, etc...). He must be a patient and effective hitter. Again signs are in the picture and I would not be writing him off at 21 years of age. He was always going to take that extra year or two for his skills to finally translate. If the Orioles write him off, I would gladly tell my team to "buy low" on him.
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Re: Arizona Fall League Thread

PostPost #33 by j.q. higgins » December 1st, 2011, 11:44 am

Don wrote:Avery is still young enough that he can still project down the line. Too many people are writing him off, I have seen the adjustments over the years that he is slowly gaining strike zone judgement, spraying the ball with gap power (going with pitches), better at small ball. He still has a way to go for an everyday centerfielder. He must improve his first step and small aspects of his defensive (better routes, glove down, etc...). He must be a patient and effective hitter. Again signs are in the picture and I would not be writing him off at 21 years of age. He was always going to take that extra year or two for his skills to finally translate. If the Orioles write him off, I would gladly tell my team to "buy low" on him.


so, as for 2012, what do you envision as a perfect world scenario for x. avery from a developmental strandpoint? start him at bowie, see what carries over and bump him up to norfolk or just keep him at bowie as long as is practicable?
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Re: Arizona Fall League Thread

PostPost #34 by ofahn » December 1st, 2011, 3:14 pm

j.q. higgins wrote:so, as for 2012, what do you envision as a perfect world scenario for x. avery from a developmental strandpoint? start him at bowie, see what carries over and bump him up to norfolk or just keep him at bowie as long as is practicable?


IMO if he dominates at AA for at least 250 ABs like he did in the AFL this winter then he's ready for AAA.
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Re: Arizona Fall League Thread

PostPost #35 by Tucker Blair » December 2nd, 2011, 5:37 pm

ofahn wrote:
j.q. higgins wrote:so, as for 2012, what do you envision as a perfect world scenario for x. avery from a developmental strandpoint? start him at bowie, see what carries over and bump him up to norfolk or just keep him at bowie as long as is practicable?


IMO if he dominates at AA for at least 250 ABs like he did in the AFL this winter then he's ready for AAA.

I would agree with this. But he needs to dominate.
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Re: Arizona Fall League Thread

PostPost #36 by ofahn » December 2nd, 2011, 7:26 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I would agree with this. But he needs to dominate.


Even if Avery hits well enough to earn a promotion to AAA next year it may take him at least one full season after that to take the next step. Remember, this is a player that still needs to learn how to play his position well. I would hope that the 2012 version of player development would offer him the chance to spend at least an hour each day before pregame drills to work on his OF routes, wall angles, and practicing his throws. If Avery is given that opportunity to do the extra work is willing to make that commitment to his career then we may really have something.
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