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Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #1 by Tucker Blair » January 27th, 2014, 8:50 am

The Baseball Prospectus 101 came out today. Five Orioles made the list:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=22670

Kevin Gausman - 10
Dylan Bundy - 15
Hunter Harvey - 58
Eduardo Rodriguez - 61
Jonathan Schoop - 82
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #2 by ofahn » January 27th, 2014, 10:07 am

I find it striking that Schoop and Harvey weren't on the MLB 100 list. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/

I agree that players chosen in the last draft shouldn't be placed on a list until they have played at least a half of a season, which explains why Harvey didn't make the MLB list; but the fact that Schoop is included on Baseball Prospectus seems to indicate that there are diverse opinions about his upside. My best guess on him is that he becomes an above average regular AFTER a period of rough adjustment.

If Harvey rockets through the Sally League this year then he would deserve a top 50 placement.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » January 27th, 2014, 10:25 am

ofahn wrote:I find it striking that Schoop and Harvey weren't on the MLB 100 list. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/

I agree that players chosen in the last draft shouldn't be placed on a list until they have played at least a half of a season, which explains why Harvey didn't make the MLB list; but the fact that Schoop is included on Baseball Prospectus seems to indicate that there are diverse opinions about his upside. My best guess on him is that he becomes an above average regular AFTER a period of rough adjustment.

If Harvey rockets through the Sally League this year then he would deserve a top 50 placement.


I understand your point, but I just do not agree with that. I think if a player has the tools and ability to be a top 100 prospect, then they should be ranked in that area. Do I believe Harvey is aggressively ranked? Absolutely. After seeing him pitch, I definitely think he is one of the 100 best players in the minors. In fact, he was probably the best pitcher I saw in SS-A and Low-A, and I went out of my way to see a lot of good talent.

Schoop has more diverse opinions than any O's prospect I can remember. Scouts either love him or hate him. I think it is no different on these lists. I personally love him, but I am very hesitant on him ever reaching his ceiling.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #4 by ofahn » January 27th, 2014, 11:00 am

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I understand your point, but I just do not agree with that. I think if a player has the tools and ability to be a top 100 prospect, then they should be ranked in that area.

This is probably one of those TOW MAY TOW/TOW MAH TOW arguments. I see him as a talented player, but I have a problem ranking him as a top prospect ahead of other players that have shown an ability to excel over time in professional ball. Now, IF Harvey is lights out in A ball when the mid season rankings come out I would expect him to be highly ranked because, IMO, at that point he's earned it.

TuckerBlair89 wrote:Schoop has more diverse opinions than any O's prospect I can remember. Scouts either love him or hate him. I think it is no different on these lists. I personally love him, but I am very hesitant on him ever reaching his ceiling.

IMO his ceiling is as an impact player, but I see reality is as an above average ML. Let's face it; the bar for above average at 2B, SS, or 3B is not that high. Plus defense with an OPS of .700 OR above average defense with an OPS of .750 or better can make you an All Star.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #5 by Tucker Blair » January 28th, 2014, 9:10 am

ICYMI: Steve Melewski interviewed Parks:

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewsk ... eball.html
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #6 by ofahn » January 28th, 2014, 10:01 am

While I'm pleased that we have these five very talented players in our system it deeply concerns me that they are almost ALL of our system. You can make valid arguments that Mike Wright, Mike Ohlman, and Henry Urrutia will have ML careers, but after that the best talent is at least three years away and the mortality rate for low level prospects is horrific.

I accept the ownership has instructed the FO to build a team that can sell tickets this year, but I'm hoping they have the green light to start the rebuilding process this summer if things tank. Moving Davis and Wieters should bring at least four Class A and two Class B prospects and add some real depth towards building a championship team.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #7 by osforlife » January 28th, 2014, 8:34 pm

ofahn wrote:I find it striking that Schoop and Harvey weren't on the MLB 100 list. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/

I agree that players chosen in the last draft shouldn't be placed on a list until they have played at least a half of a season, which explains why Harvey didn't make the MLB list; but the fact that Schoop is included on Baseball Prospectus seems to indicate that there are diverse opinions about his upside. My best guess on him is that he becomes an above average regular AFTER a period of rough adjustment.

If Harvey rockets through the Sally League this year then he would deserve a top 50 placement.


I tend to find MLB's rankings quite idiotic and plain. It seems like they don't dig into the lower minors much, and base too much value on minor league statistics. Obviously, I'm a big supporter of deserved promotion, but I wouldn't punish players as harshly as them due to struggles in their first few years of professional ball. A couple interesting tidbits on MLB's rankings;

1) Francisco Peguero, signed as a minor league free agent this winter, has been ranked as the Orioles #9 prospect. Ludicrous.

2) Michael Ohlman and Jason Gurka, a 26 year old LOOGY with a 1.4 WHIP at Bowie, are ranked next to each other, at #14/#15, respectively.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #8 by Old Sneakers » January 29th, 2014, 6:14 am

And for another unpopular post...

Gausman lost his prospect status last year. He doesn't belong on this list.

Harvey needs at least a full season under his belt to warrant any top 100 ranking.

Schoop may or many not deserve top 125-150. Try to remember he's not lit any league up the past two years.

Francisco Peguero doesn't belong in any list.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #9 by Tucker Blair » January 29th, 2014, 9:03 am

Old Sneakers wrote:And for another unpopular post...

Gausman lost his prospect status last year. He doesn't belong on this list.

Harvey needs at least a full season under his belt to warrant any top 100 ranking.

Schoop may or many not deserve top 125-150. Try to remember he's not lit any league up the past two years.

Francisco Peguero doesn't belong in any list.


Gausman is borderline for me. I don't mind if anyone says he shouldn't be on the list. I can 100% guarantee you that BP feels the same way.


On Schoop, remember that he has been extremely rushed. He should have been at AA most likely last year, but they pushed him along with Manny Machado. I think he is roughly the same player as before last season, which was definitely a top 100 prospect in my honest opinion.

In all honesty, lists are fun - but meaningless in reality.
I think looking at all the lists offers us a plethora of information that we can use to illustrate where an organization stands for the future. That's what I use prospect lists for. I often disagree with them, and I think my list would be different than most. But it's all in the eye of the beholder. That makes it fun
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 101: 5 Orioles Ranked

PostPost #10 by Old Sneakers » January 29th, 2014, 7:18 pm

Not being argumentative at all here.

Gausman is no longer a prospect by definition. He still has a high ceiling but he lost his rookie status last year. That's my only gripe. If he has another year of lost development then I will be griping about his ceiling being lowered. But for now he (in my eyes) either a replacement level player or a reliever.

Schoop has indeed been rushed. I am not knocking him for doing what was asked of him. I just want him proving he belongs in a top 100 list. That means he has to see a lot of AAA ABs this years. At least the team has had him mostly at 2b the past two years. Defense matters too. All scouting reports on Schoop hyped his power potential. Power is great. But, I favor a high batting and on base percentage. Because he's been rushed we really do not know what Schoop is going to be. If he bats .220 but hits 20 HR batting 8th... I will be disappointed. If he bats 8th and manages a line like .275/.350 and knocks in 8 HR I will be ecstatic! HR's looked great on the Sunday paper stat sheet back in the 80s. Now, I favor getting on base and grinding down opposing starting pitchers.

I am conflicted putting Harvey on any top list. Raw talent got him drafted. He's still years away. Let's let him work his way up and in two years get excited at what he has a chance to become. I will admit he represented good value (talent/cost/potential) on draft day last year. But we all know it's a long way from draft day to major league debut.

Mike Wright has a chance to get a lot of IP in Baltimore over the next few seasons. I don't know if that means he's an average starter or true work horse or even a reliever. Are we ranking ceilings, floors, shaved legs or marketability? I think the guy is vastly under-rated based on the amount of production he's likely to give the parent club in coming seasons. As far as Wright goes, if he lives up to becoming a guy that averages 135IP a season with a 4.25 ERA over five seasons then he's a huge payoff in investment. Anything better and it's icing on the cake. He could just as easily become the team's closer and wreck Jim Johnson's save records.
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