Farm System Rankings

[THECavalry]

Where does the O's system ranking amongst all teams? Somewhere in the 10-13 range I'd imagine.

A few guys in our system had down years - Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell, Matt Hobgood, Michael Ohlman - but, with the addition of talents like Manny Machado, Parker Bridwell, Connor Narron etc, I think they make up for some of that.

Where would you place the O's?

[waynebug]

Not nearly that high. Probably between 20 and 30.

For all the money spent in the draft the results are not that good. The players turn out to have been overrated or were damaged goods. Why Joe Jordan is still held in such high regard is beyond me. He has conducted 6 drafts now and we are nowhere near the talent base of the rest of the AL East.

[Esskay]

The biggest hit is not from down years, but from graduation and injury. Matusz, Arrieta, and Bell all graduated; Erbe (especially) and Givens were injured. That's 3 of the top 5 and 5 of the top 10. Down years/injury decimate a lot of the mid-tier prospects too: Lebron injured, Hobgood, Snyder, Johnson, Waring, and Mickolio all disappointed to a greater or lesser degree.

OTOH, Zach Britton is the best pitcher who will debut in the AL next year, Avery and Hoes had very nice years, Machado was added, there's a wealth of high upside arms at low A who will hopefully break out next season, Matt Angle did well, and Jonathan Schoop came out of nowhere. I think we might be in the 15-20 range, probably closer to 20. There are still several teams with terrible farm systems (ARZ, PHI, STL, CHW, HOU come to mind).

[Don]

What knocking on Joe Jordan?

Geeze you know little about baseball in general. The Guy has found multiple talent with the Expos in the 90's including Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Jason Bay. The guy pulled off some other players in his few season with the Marlins inlcude Josh Johnson and Scott Olsen.

You do not get his position within less than 10 years for a reason. He finds talent and he trusts his scouts opinions. He has found a fair number of players for the Orioles and moved the Orioles from under the 8-Ball. You really must not remember those years when the entire system was a laughing stock

2/3 of this current rotation is a result of his work at scouting director.

His staff's work between the rule 4 and cross checking during trading time in the minor leagues landed Wieters, Jones, Bell....

So what Bill Rowell and Brandon Snyder have not turned out, 2005 draft has three players in the lineup right now. The 2006 draft already has one pitcher up. Three other guys from that draft are very close to making the major league club.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Not nearly that high. Probably between 20 and 30.

For all the money spent in the draft the results are not that good. The players turn out to have been overrated or were damaged goods. Why Joe Jordan is still held in such high regard is beyond me. He has conducted 6 drafts now and we are nowhere near the talent base of the rest of the AL East.

What knocking on Joe Jordan?

There is plenty of knocking on Joe Jordan (not that I agree with it)...especially for his 2009 draft selections. But having 14 of your top 16 picks go on the DL isn't something you can control.

The biggest hit is not from down years, but from graduation and injury. Matusz, Arrieta, and Bell all graduated; Erbe (especially) and Givens were injured. That's 3 of the top 5 and 5 of the top 10. Down years/injury decimate a lot of the mid-tier prospects too: Lebron injured, Hobgood, Snyder, Johnson, Waring, and Mickolio all disappointed to a greater or lesser degree.

Exactly. Injuries were a big part of the 2010 season. See my chart at the bottom of this post:

http://orioles-nation.com/2010/08/26/mi ... res-82510/

[Shorebirdfan]

OK, so then here is the next question. Who carries the "blame" for that many picks being injured? Is it dumb luck, the athletes themselves, the organization or Joe Jordan for selecting "damaged goods?"

As you can guess from my name, I follow these kids early in the process at Low A ball, and year in and year out, I see the same thing. We rush kids too soon and they get hurt. Ohlman had no business in Low A this year. Henry never looked healthy. Dalles came back from the first concussion too soon.

Angle practically skipped Double A, Ryan Berry made only 8 starts before being promoted to Frederick and Townsend played only 30 games.

I am hopeful that the reduction from 7 minor league teams to 6 will slow this down and assist, but as I look around, and compare what happens to our kids with other organizations, it seems more that success at the major league level is the only thing that allows players to better develop and stay at the level that best fits their progress. I mean look at the Phillies organization. They have traded away Anthony Gose, Jonathon Villar, Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor to name a few in the last couple seasons, and still have players like Dominic Brown, Sebastian Valle, Trevor May, Harold Garcia, Brody Colvin, Jarred Cosart and Jonathon Singleton in the works. All players who they have been able to develop one level at a time.

[Esskay]

A flood of injuries to top prospects in a particular year is not a problem, in and of itself. If many top prospects are injured year in and year out, that's very bad. Right now, we're in the former situation; our system still has a lot of high-upside talent. It's hidden and didn't get a chance to shine this year, mostly due to injury (some guys did get a chance and failed, other got their chance and succeeded). I would hope that many guys will have great years next year: Hoes, Angle, and the low-A arms are at the top of my list. If they fail next year, or many of them get injured/re-injured, then we are in trouble.

So in sum: yes, injuries are cause for concern, but until there's a pattern, it's not a big deal, because talent will eventually make itself known.

[ZBall2131]

Without Machado, Britton, and Snyder this is probably one of the bottom 5-10 organizations. Aside from those three, there really isn't another elite prospect, or even a guy you can look at and think, "yeah, I can see him in the Majors."

That said, they do have those three, so I'd say that's probably enough to sneak them into the 17-20. Once Britton and Snyder graduate next year though, look out. Unless the O's can snag some deep talent in next year's draft or get bounceback seasons from Hobgood, Givens, Steve Johnson, or even Patton, this could be a battom five org. real easy.

[Esskay]

Unless the O's can snag some deep talent in next year's draft or get bounceback seasons from Hobgood, Givens, Steve Johnson, or even Patton, this could be a battom five org. real easy

The O's have a whole bunch of Low-A prospects with high upsides who could have breakout seasons. There's Ryan Berry at Frederick, then below him you have Tolliver, Beal, Coffey, Wirsch, Bundy, etc, as well as Hobgood.

The upper minors will be thin indeed next season. Once Britton and Snyder graduate, Bowie and Norfolk will have Hoes and Avery and maybe some decent relievers (Wynn Pelzer, Pedro Beato?) and that's it. But there's a lot of pitching talent that's been held back (mostly by injury, not poor performance) and some excellent infielders led by Machado but also including Schoop, Narron, and Givens below or possibly at Frederick.

This farm system is bottom-heavy, but it could have a fantastic year even if Steve Johnson's and Troy Patton's arms fall off. While I hope they manage to turn things around and contribute to the O's in the future (Patton especially, in the bullpen), they're just not the most important guys on the farm at this point.

[ZBall2131]

Yeah, I would have to say that the strength of the system right now is in it's middle infielders and it's relief pitching.