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Analyzing the Orioles On-Base Skills

Analyzing the Orioles On-Base Skills

PostPost #1 by Tucker Blair » February 2nd, 2012, 4:16 pm

I personally think these projections are kind of laughable, but it's fun to at least see how terrible they really were in areas last year, and how projections can be so far off in reality.
Enjoy, it took forever to write this, and I am still debating whether it was worth it!

Analyzing the Orioles On-Base Skills
Dan Duquette has mentioned on various occasions that his goal is to increase the on-base skills of the club. I decided to analyze the team and see if the current moves have made any changes. To get a better understanding of where they currently stand, I went back and did a little recap of the team from last season.

The Orioles were middle of the pack when it came to getting on base in 2011.
They ranked 19th overall with an OBP of .316
They ranked 12th overall with a wOBA of .320
They ranked 20th overall with a BABIP of .288
They ranked 14th overall with a K% of 18.2%
They ranked 24th overall with a BB% of 7.3% (Tied with 3 other teams)

They really were not good in any category, although their wOBA is surprisingly a little higher than expected. I would attribute that to how many HR they hit as a club though.
If you look at each player individually, you can get a better idea of where they stand. I only chose to look at players who got more than 150 AB. Chris Davis did not make the cut (124AB).

Orioles Leaders:
OBP: Nick Markakis .351
wOBA: Mark Reynolds .348
BABIP: Robert Andino .311
K%: Vlad Guerrero 9.5%
BB%: Mark Reynolds 12.1%


Matt Wieters:
OBP: .328
wOBA: .339
BABIP: .276
K%: 15.2%
BB%: 8.7%

Mark Reynolds:
OBP: .323
wOBA:.348
BABIP: .266
K%: 31.6%
BB%: 12.1%

JJ Hardy:
OBP: .310
wOBA:.343
BABIP:.273
K%: 16.2%
BB%: 5.5%

Robert Andino:
OBP: .327
wOBA:.305
BABIP:.311
K%: 16.2%%
BB%: 8.0%

Vlad Guerrero:
OBP: .317
wOBA:.318
BABIP:.302
K%: 9.5%
BB%: 2.9%

Derrek Lee:
OBP: .302
wOBA:.308
BABIP:.290
K%: 22.8%
BB%:6.9%



Nick Markakis:
OBP: .351
wOBA:.334
BABIP:.300
K%: 10.5%
BB%:8.7%

Adam Jones:
OBP: .319
wOBA: .339
BABIP: .304
K%: 18.3%
BB%: 4.7%

Nolan Reimold:
OBP: .328
wOBA:.341
BABIP:.264
K%: 18.7%
BB%: 9.2%

Luke Scott:
OBP: .301
wOBA:.307
BABIP:.250
K%: 22.9%
BB%: 10.2%


Brian Roberts:
OBP: .273
wOBA: .274
BABIP: .236
K%: 11.8
BB%: 6.7%

Felix Pie:
OBP: .264
wOBA: .244
BABIP: .273
K%: 18.3%
BB%: 5.7%

A few things jump out when looking at these stats. This team simply does not have the necessary patience at the plate. Only three players had BB% over 9% (Nolan Reimold, Mark Reynolds and Luke Scott). That alone will drag down a teams' OBP. Six players had K% over 18%(Felix Pie, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds)! If it was not for Vlad Guerrero and his 9.5 K% outlier, the Orioles would have been even worse in that category. Finally, Felix Pie and Brian Roberts in 353 AB last season collectively had a .255 BABIP and .259 wOBA. Those 353 AB really drag down the teams' overall stats.

So how can this team get better in 2012? Well first let's start at looking at the new projections for the starting lineup. I compiled all of Bill James projections for the starting lineup together.
I did NOT consider Brian Roberts in the 2012 projections. I just do not see him ever being healthy this season unfortunately.
Here is the starting lineup:

C: Matt Wieters
1st: Chris Davis
2nd: Robert Andino
SS: JJ Hardy
3B: Mark Reynolds
LF: Nolan Reimold
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Wilson Betemit

Notable Bench Players:
Endy Chavez
Matt Antonelli

These are the guys I see getting significant (or relevant) playing time.
Unfortunately there are no projections for Matt Antonelli at this time. I would consider him a boost to these stats if anything.

Here are their projections for 2012 in RED


Bill James Projections:
OBP: .332 They ranked 19th overall in 2011with an OBP of .316
wOBA: .336 They ranked 12th overall in 2011with a wOBA of .320
BABIP: .308 They ranked 20th overall in 2011with a BABIP of .288
K%: 19.68% They ranked 14th overall in 2011 with a K% of 18.2%
BB%: 8.37% They ranked 24th overall in 2011 with a BB% of 7.3% (Tied with 3 other teams)

If the 2012 projections were ranked with the 2011 stats they would be:
7th overall in OBP
4th overall in wOBA
4th overall in BABIP
21st overall in K%
13th overall in BB%

I tend to think that Bill James' projections are STRONGLY optimistic at times. I don't think anyone projects the Orioles to really improve substantially in each category like these projections indicate (Besides K%, which is due to the loss of Vlad Guerrero and the gain of Wilson Betemit and his 27.3%). They project players such as Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and Chris Davis to all take significant steps forward. At the very least, I would doubt that all four do. Also it is very hard to project BABIP, as it has a lot to do with luck and opponents defensive abilities.

Overall, I would still say that the 2012 team has a much better chance at getting on base, but to not get overly excited with the outcome of these projections. Let's remember a year ago at this time when everyone thought the Orioles lineup projected to be a force in the AL East!

http://entoriole.blogspot.com/2012/02/a ... kills.html
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Re: Analyzing the Orioles On-Base Skills

PostPost #2 by Matt P » February 3rd, 2012, 2:33 am

I think the 2012 lineup as a group will be better than the 2011 version.
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Re: Analyzing the Orioles On-Base Skills

PostPost #3 by ofahn » February 3rd, 2012, 10:42 am

Tucker,

I want to thank you. In a very efficient 858 words you were able to explain in clinical detail why I spent so much time last season banging my head against the wall.
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Re: Analyzing the Orioles On-Base Skills

PostPost #4 by thezeroes » February 4th, 2012, 12:01 am

The entire On Base Percentage forthe Orioles in 2011 could have had a positive spin with one simple task for the entire team through out the year. With the Orioles batters accepting one more walk per game and having that taken away from their team strikeout total would have garnered an OBP of .342. This would have also increased their BA to .264, their SLG to .425 and an overall ops of .768. This would have placed them in the top five teams in overall hitting.

Ask yourself if you think the Orioles team in 2012 can garner just one walk more with one less strikeout Per Game and you would have an overall improvement in team offense. Seems so simple.
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Re: Analyzing the Orioles On-Base Skills

PostPost #5 by Tucker Blair » February 4th, 2012, 12:03 am

thezeroes wrote:The entire On Base Percentage forthe Orioles in 2011 could have had a positive spin with one simple task for the entire team through out the year. With the Orioles batters accepting one more walk per game and having that taken away from their team strikeout total would have garnered an OBP of .342. This would have also increased their BA to .264, their SLG to .425 and an overall ops of .768. This would have placed them in the top five teams in overall hitting.

Ask yourself if you think the Orioles team in 2012 can garner just one walk more with one less strikeout Per Game and you would have an overall improvement in team offense. Seems so simple.


that's the beauty of it!
It seems so simple, but the Orioles' make it so difficult (and it is difficult).

I really think they could be better, but it's going to take some serious changes in a few players approaches.

ofahn wrote:Tucker,

I want to thank you. In a very efficient 858 words you were able to explain in clinical detail why I spent so much time last season banging my head against the wall.


Thanks!
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