Tillman

[birdwatcher55]

I'm baffled with all the love here for Tillman. Do we have MacPhail family members posting??? LOL ... I hope I'm dead wrong here but I just don't see this guy as a long term answer. He's not in shape, he can't throw strikes consistently and he loses velocity like some people lose their money. What am I missing here?????

[ofahn]

Not all of us are having a "bromance". I was very clear in qualifying my support on his getting into shape and trusting his stuff. I see Chris Tillman's problem as Chris Tillman has not yet given Chris Tillman an opportunity to be successful. Once he does we'll be able to see if he's a nugget.

[TuckerBlair89]

I think by ST we will be able to conclude more about Tillman, but as of now I think the skepticism for him is definitely warranted.

[A_K]

My expectations remain low, based on what I've seen with my own eyes at the big league level. I think birdwatcher55's reaction is normal based on how amazingly frustrating it's been to watch Tillman pitch as an Oriole.

That said, 69-win teams with few high-level pitching prospects to speak of, little budget to improve the staff via free agency and virtually no hope whatsoever to contend in the upcoming year should never be in the business of giving up on 23-year-old, former top prospect who just came off a 3.99 FIP, 1.0 WAR season.

You need to set aside the emotional reaction, the disappointment and frustration emanating from the difference between what he was supposed to be and what he's actually been, and be willing to assess dispassionately the situation as it currently stands. What we have right now is a very young starting pitcher who has had a very inconsistent start to his career. If his velocity doesn't improve it's a near certainty that he won't pan out. But it's entirely possible that his velocity will improve, along with his control, and that he'll become a worthwhile asset after all. It certainly wouldn't be the first occurrence of its kind.

What are the alternatives? And in a season that's doomed to result in 90 losses even before it begins, what do we have to lose?

[TuckerBlair89]

My expectations remain low, based on what I've seen with my own eyes at the big league level. I think birdwatcher55's reaction is normal based on how amazingly frustrating it's been to watch Tillman pitch as an Oriole.

That said, 69-win teams with few high-level pitching prospects to speak of, little budget to improve the staff via free agency and virtually no hope whatsoever to contend in the upcoming year should never be in the business of giving up on 23-year-old, former top prospect who just came off a 3.99 FIP, 1.0 WAR season.

You need to set aside the emotional reaction, the disappointment and frustration emanating from the difference between what he was supposed to be and what he's actually been, and be willing to assess dispassionately the situation as it currently stands. What we have right now is a very young starting pitcher who has had a very inconsistent start to his career. If his velocity doesn't improve it's a near certainty that he won't pan out. But it's entirely possible that his velocity will improve, along with his control, and that he'll become a worthwhile asset after all. It certainly wouldn't be the first occurrence of its kind.

What are the alternatives? And in a season that's doomed to result in 90 losses even before it begins, what do we have to lose?

Great post, And I agree with everything you said.
I would assume that the Orioles are thinking along the same lines.
The thing about Tillman to me is this: I expect him to be in better shape by ST, so give him a full chance to stick in the rotation, and if he struggles, then you look at the possibility of trading him or keeping him in AAA.

I think by Opening day the big picture will be a lot more clear, but as of now Tillman is still on the outside looking in.

Tillman's chances could largely be affected by Jim Johnson and Alfredo Simon staying in the rotation as well.

[OriolesRedskins28]

It's a shame because Tillman destroyed AAA in 2009. I wonder what happened... Even his 2010 and especially his 2011 AAA stats are significantly worse than his 2009 stats.

[ofahn]

It's a shame because Tillman destroyed AAA in 2009. I wonder what happened... Even his 2010 and especially his 2011 AAA stats are significantly worse than his 2009 stats.

Our development staff did not prepare him properly. He wasn't in shape and still didn't know how to get through an inning on less than 15 pitches.

[birdwatcher55]

In view of the Asian signings, I think this ship has sailed

[TuckerBlair89]

In view of the Asian signings, I think this ship has sailed

Yea, he is pretty much destined for AAA at this point I would assume.

[birdwatcher55]

When he's on he arguably has the best stuff on the staff. He just can't put it all together for longer than a game or two.

Better than Guthrie??? I think that statement is a bit of a reach IMHO...

[birdwatcher55]

He's gone through two or three pitching coaches during that span. I wonder if someone tinkered with his delivery and in the process messed him up. What I did see last year briefly was improvement after Griffin worked with him in Norfolk. I'm not sure what his future is in Baltimore, if any, but he certainly has a lot to prove

[ofahn]

When he's on he arguably has the best stuff on the staff. He just can't put it all together for longer than a game or two.

Better than Guthrie??? I think that statement is a bit of a reach IMHO...

I would agree with Matt P. on this one. I don't want to put words in Matt's mouth but I think he's saying that Tillman has better STUFF than Guthrie. Not that he gets better RESULTS than Guthrie.

[TuckerBlair89]

When he's on he arguably has the best stuff on the staff. He just can't put it all together for longer than a game or two.

Better than Guthrie??? I think that statement is a bit of a reach IMHO...

I would agree with Matt P. on this one. I don't want to put words in Matt's mouth but I think he's saying that Tillman has better STUFF than Guthrie. Not that he gets better RESULTS than Guthrie.

I don't know, I think Guthrie has pretty good stuff.
I personally think Arrieta has the best stuff out of all their SP though.

[ofahn]

He's gone through two or three pitching coaches during that span. I wonder if someone tinkered with his delivery and in the process messed him up. What I did see last year briefly was improvement after Griffin worked with him in Norfolk. I'm not sure what his future is in Baltimore, if any, but he certainly has a lot to prove

I see Tillman's problem as a failure by our development staff to require him to become a legitimate starting pitcher. By that I mean that he was never required to learn how to get past the sixth inning, or even get that far when he didn't have his best stuff. He was also never required to get into the kind of shape that would allow him to have something left in the tank after 100 pitches.

Look at Tillman's stats when we got him and last year at AAA. He's still a 5 and 2/3 inning pitcher. That's a DEVELOPMENT Issue.

[ofahn]

I personally think Arrieta has the best stuff out of all their SP though.

It's close enough that I wouldn't argue the point. NOW, if we could just see some RESULTS.