Temper Expectations for Guerrero

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Our newest author Luke Jackson believes fans need to temper expectations for Vlad.

http://orioles-nation.com/2011/03/31/te ... -guerrero/

"With the signing of Vladimir Guerrero this winter, I sensed an unusual amount of optimism surrounding not just the potential of the Orioles as a whole, but also as to what Guerrero could accomplish this year in an Orioles uniform. It seemed like a lot of fans were evaluating the signing of Guerrero based on his successful past rather than what the future holds for him."

[Don]

I said at the time of the signing that it depends on how they utilize him. I consider him a 3/4 day guy who should not be maxed out at anytime, if they want to see him last into August and September. If they can keep him fresh, he could still be productive in the lineup. He will not post the impressive numbers of years past, but he can still turn on the occassional fastball.

This would be different, if, Vlad had proper mechanics. He was solely a freak of nature with an extreamly un-orthodox approach to the plate. He lived off maybe the most impressive bat speed I have personally witnessed. He no longer has the speed to be that free swinger, but when fresh and healthy he can flat out hit the cover off the ball no matter where the pitch is thrown.

My best guess is that he will be trotted out everyday in the hopes that he finds the fountain of youth and hits a hot stride well into the first half of the season. I truly think the "end goal" is for him to be productive into July and trade him for future considerations.

[A_K]

His 2009 season was actually the clear outlier, not 2010.

There’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

Who says there was $8 million sitting around that was going to be spent on Vlad or on the draft/international signings? It’s more likely that international and draft spending is fixed, and Angelos agreed to add to the big league payroll when he saw a marketable commodity available at a relative bargain.

By trading Vlad at the deadline, that $8 million investment could improve the farm system anyhow.

And once again, there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

His 2009 season was actually the clear outlier, not 2010.

There’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

Who says there was $8 million sitting around that was going to be spent on Vlad or on the draft/international signings? It’s more likely that international and draft spending is fixed, and Angelos agreed to add to the big league payroll when he saw a marketable commodity available at a relative bargain.

By trading Vlad at the deadline, that $8 million investment could improve the farm system anyhow.

And once again, there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

Couldn't agree more. We have no idea what the money would have been used for if not spent on Vlad. MacPhail's job is to put the best team on the field, and by signing Guerrero he did just that.

[BuckMagic]

His 2009 season was actually the clear outlier, not 2010.

There’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

Who says there was $8 million sitting around that was going to be spent on Vlad or on the draft/international signings? It’s more likely that international and draft spending is fixed, and Angelos agreed to add to the big league payroll when he saw a marketable commodity available at a relative bargain.

By trading Vlad at the deadline, that $8 million investment could improve the farm system anyhow.

And once again, there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

Couldn't agree more. We have no idea what the money would have been used for if not spent on Vlad. MacPhail's job is to put the best team on the field, and by signing Guerrero he did just that.

If I remember correctly the projected value of Luke Scott at DH + Pie in left field was just a tad lower than the projected value of Scott in LF + Vlad at DH.

[Luke Jackson]

Hey everyone, thanks for the interest in the post and I hope I can contribute to this site in a very positive way moving forward. And a big thanks to Jordan for inviting me to write for ON.

As for the outlier in 2010 I was talking about, the outlier was within the context of the decline phase of his career. Check out Vlad's WAR graph via Fangraphs from his age 29 season until now (http://is.gd/YMooQn). It's a steady decline until last year, where he had somewhat of a bounce-back year based off a strong first few months. I meant his 2010 season being an outlier in the context of his decline. My apologies if I didn't get that across. Just wanted to clear that up.

Thanks again,

-Luke