Statistics are not crap PROJECTING STATISTICS is crap. You are the one who posted about projecting Lough to hit better. How can you project that?
I highly suggest you watch this short video and get back to me. That's how I, and anybody else who isn't statistically ignorant, can project progression or regression. I've predicted Pearce will regress because he couldn't sustain a unusually high BABIP, and he has slowed down. The same will happen with Young.
I'm not really sure what you mean by saying "projecting statistics is crap". This isn't a ZIPS projection before the start of the season. Those can be helpful, but yes they aren't perfect and can be unreliable. This is looking at real data during the season and noticing players are succeeding on "luck" driven numbers.
To put it into perspective, if a hitter hits .433 in April, should you expect him to hit .433 for the rest of the season? You say projecting statistics are crap. Obviously, he hit .433 in April, he'll hit .433 the rest of the season, right?
Should you really count on him to hit over .400 the rest of the season, or should you prepare for natural regression?