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Too many things need to go right for us to contend

Too many things need to go right for us to contend

PostPost #1 by docjj » June 27th, 2014, 11:59 am

First, I don't think Toronto is a fluke and see no reason why they won't be there in the end. Second, a resurgence from Boston and Tampa can certainly happen. Third, NY has the best starting pitching and this will carry them (though their lineup could use some help...).

The O's need continued high production from Pearce, Cruz, Young, Jones, and a resurgence from Chris Davis. They also need Machado to remember how to hit. They need the rotation to stay healthy, and Ubaldo Jimenez to revert to the 2013 version. They also need to find a catcher and second baseman who can hit.

Too much needs to happen, in my opinion.
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Re: Too many things need to go right for us to contend

PostPost #2 by osforlife » June 27th, 2014, 4:37 pm

I highly disagree. Baltimore's defense is stellar again, they have the 7th best OPS in baseball, the bullpen is average, and the rotation is weak, but deep. In a nutshell, the defense is outstanding, the offense if above-average, and the pitching is slightly below average. Pearce, Young, and Cruz won't keep up their current production, but we can expect Davis and Lough to perform better. O'Day and Britton are due for some regression, but we can expect Tommy Hunter to pitch better. The prolonged presence of Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy might be valuable. Bud Norris (currently on the DL) will eventually regress from his pretty 3.62 ERA, but we've all seen Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Miguel Gonzalez pitch a hell of a lot better than what they're currently doing. If the Orioles make the playoffs, they won't be the best team, but ANYTHING can happen in the playoffs. The goal is to get there.

Jose Bautista hasn't stayed healthy a whole season since 2010. Jose Reyes has avoided the DL one year out of the last six. Adam Lind is riding a ridiculous .395 BABIP, Lawrie is injured (like always), and Juan Francisco's productivity seems to have finally come to and end. Mark Buerhle's 3.63 FIP, 4.22 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA think differently than his pretty 2.52 ERA. RA Dickey's ace days are over, he is what he is. Ditto for JA Happ. Brandon Morrow isn't coming back.

The Rays have the worst record in baseball. They aren't coming back into contention. In fact, they're going to start selling their team soon. Price, Bedard, Zobrist, Joyce, and Oviedo could all be leaving.

The Redsox free agent losses and continued reliance of false 2013 stars have killed them. Daniel Nava's .352 BABIP and Mike Carp's .381 BABIP were never going to survive. They're starting rotation collapsed. Dempster retired in Spring Training, Doubront's development bombed, and Peavy regressed to a back of the rotation pitcher. Just look at their roster; they're not that good.

Yankees will likely make moves to try and stay in it, but they are a very flawed roster. McCann and Beltran will probably get better, but Tanaka is the only starting pitcher they have. Kuroda's okay. Their infield is really bad. I don't see them as being much more than a .500 team.
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Re: Too many things need to go right for us to contend

PostPost #3 by osforlife » June 27th, 2014, 4:38 pm

I highly disagree. Baltimore's defense is stellar again, they have the 7th best OPS in baseball, the bullpen is average, and the rotation is weak, but deep. In a nutshell, the defense is outstanding, the offense if above-average, and the pitching is slightly below average. Pearce, Young, and Cruz won't keep up their current production, but we can expect Davis and Lough to perform better. O'Day and Britton are due for some regression, but we can expect Tommy Hunter to pitch better. The prolonged presence of Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy might be valuable. Bud Norris (currently on the DL) will eventually regress from his pretty 3.62 ERA, but we've all seen Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Miguel Gonzalez pitch a hell of a lot better than what they're currently doing. If the Orioles make the playoffs, they won't be the best team, but ANYTHING can happen in the playoffs. The goal is to get there.

Jose Bautista hasn't stayed healthy a whole season since 2010. Jose Reyes has avoided the DL one year out of the last six. Adam Lind is riding a ridiculous .395 BABIP, Lawrie is injured (like always), and Juan Francisco's productivity seems to have finally come to and end. Mark Buerhle's 3.63 FIP, 4.22 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA think differently than his pretty 2.52 ERA. RA Dickey's ace days are over, he is what he is. Ditto for JA Happ. Brandon Morrow isn't coming back.

The Rays have the worst record in baseball. They aren't coming back into contention. In fact, they're going to start selling their team soon. Price, Bedard, Zobrist, Joyce, and Oviedo could all be leaving.

The Redsox free agent losses and continued reliance of false 2013 stars have killed them. Daniel Nava's .352 BABIP and Mike Carp's .381 BABIP were never going to survive. They're starting rotation collapsed. Dempster retired in Spring Training, Doubront's development bombed, and Peavy regressed to a back of the rotation pitcher. Just look at their roster; they're not that good.

Yankees will likely make moves to try and stay in it, but they are a very flawed roster. McCann and Beltran will probably get better, but Tanaka is the only starting pitcher they have. Kuroda's okay. Their infield is really bad. I don't see them as being much more than a .500 team.
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Re: Too many things need to go right for us to contend

PostPost #4 by docjj » July 16th, 2014, 7:36 am

Every team in the AL East is flawed. That is true. However despite the current standings, I think the O's are more flawed than the rest.

The starting pitching hasn't been awful, but it has been inconsistent. Jimenez has been pretty bad. Bud Norris is a .500 pitcher. Gonzales is good one day, bad the next. Tillman is not as good as he was the past 2 years. Gausman looks pretty good. We have to hope and pray for good health and fewer clunker outings.

The lineup has tremendous holes in it. Catcher and second base have given zero production. Chris Davis is hitting .199 with 2 million K's. Markakis has 6 HR. I wonder how much longer we can continue to win games with such offensive futility. Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce figure to cool off eventually.
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Re: Too many things need to go right for us to contend

PostPost #5 by Seafordeagles » July 16th, 2014, 11:32 am

docjj wrote:Every team in the AL East is flawed. That is true. However despite the current standings, I think the O's are more flawed than the rest.


This made me laugh.
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Re: Too many things need to go right for us to contend

PostPost #6 by osforlife » July 17th, 2014, 3:30 pm

1. I hate when people complain about strikeouts. Nobody complained about Chris Davis' strikeouts last year when he was hitting. In 2012, Davis averaged 1.216 K's per game. In 2013, he averaged 1.244. His strikeout rate went up in 2013. Which Chris Davis would you rather have, 2012 Chris Davis or 2013 Chris Davis? This isn't fantasy baseball. One does not get penalized for striking out rather than grounding out. In the end, one out equals one out.

2. Consistency/Inconsistency is overrated.

Pitcher A in April; 30 innings, 3.00 ERA
Pitcher B in April; 30 innings, 4.00 ERA
Pitcher A in May; 30 innings, 5.00 ERA
Pitcher B in May; 30 innings, 4.00 ERA

At the end of the two months, both pitchers pitched 60 innings at a 4.00 ERA clip. Does it really matter what it took to get to the end result? No, both pitchers were equally valuable. Some players are steady performers, others go on hot/cold spells. It's part of baseball. All that matters is the final stat line.

3. Markakis is doing everything he needs to be doing. He's the lead-off hitter, his job is to get on base. He has a .351 OBP. It's not his job to hit for power.

4. You figure Pearce and Cruz will cool down eventually, but you don't figure Davis to heat up eventually?
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Re: Too many things need to go right for us to contend

PostPost #7 by docjj » July 18th, 2014, 9:28 am

No. I don't think Davis will heat up. His career numbers indicate a power hitter who strikes out a lot, hits home runs, and has a low batting average. One outstanding year does not change that. He will continue to hit occasional home runs, strike out a ton, and have an average below .240.
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Re: Too many things need to go right for us to contend

PostPost #8 by osforlife » July 18th, 2014, 5:13 pm

docjj wrote:No. I don't think Davis will heat up. His career numbers indicate a power hitter who strikes out a lot, hits home runs, and has a low batting average. One outstanding year does not change that. He will continue to hit occasional home runs, strike out a ton, and have an average below .240.

Again, strikeouts don't matter. Second, you need to double check your numbers. His career batting average is .258, with Baltimore it's .263. Before this season it was like .278. With Texas he hit .248, and that's including a dreadful .192 in a shortened 2010 season. And he doesn't hit an occasional home-run. 35 home-runs per 162 games is not an occasional home-run. 0.25 home-runs per game in the minors is not an occasional home-run.
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