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Grantland: For the Birds

Grantland: For the Birds

PostPost #1 by Tucker Blair » February 5th, 2014, 9:03 pm

Jonah Keri with a quite in=depth piece on the O's
http://grantland.com/features/baltimore ... g-al-east/


I certainly look forward to seeing some of the reaction y'all have on this one.
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Re: Grantland: For the Birds

PostPost #2 by AlexConway » February 6th, 2014, 9:04 am

Very interesting article. I disagree with his framing of the piece that Cano and Tanaka were the guys to sign for the Orioles. Cano is on the wrong side of 30 and probably doesn't have many years of high production levels left. Tanaka is an unknown that essentially signed for 7/175.

However, you can't disagree with much of what he said. It's very solid reporting on the MASN deal and how TV money works in baseball. It's not as clear cut as one would think. Like everything in the finance world of baseball, it is shady. Also that MASN subscriber fees are so low was surprising. On top of that, the uncertainty of the financial future of MASN with the National's negotiation is very interesting and new news. The excuse that that is what is limiting spending is a decent one, but still an excuse.

It appears that Duquette once again reiterated that the payroll will be at or above $100 Million when all is said and done, which is what I expected when this off-season started. If that happens, I will have no quarrels with Angelos. I think people are upset because they essentially have only lost players (Roberts, Feldman, McLouth, Johnson) while not replacing them yet. If they move that payroll to $100 Million+ then I think some of the vitriol will calm down. I've heard/read good arguments for the payroll being around $120 Million, but I can't say for sure and really no one can. It's all a frustrating guessing game when trying to determine what payroll SHOULD be.

All in all, a great piece of reporting. Now just go SIGN SOMEBODY.
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Re: Grantland: For the Birds

PostPost #3 by ofahn » February 17th, 2014, 10:19 am

AlexConway wrote:I disagree with his framing of the piece that Cano and Tanaka were the guys to sign for the Orioles. Cano is on the wrong side of 30 and probably doesn't have many years of high production levels left. Tanaka is an unknown that essentially signed for 7/175.

I strongly concur.

IMO there was almost nothing in this batch of "free" agents that was worth signing AT ANY PRICE, and Cano was an act of pure lunacy. Hudson and Colon made some sense, but guaranteeing the second year for either of them was a big risk although I would have given serious consideration to Hudson. Garza at two guaranteed years made some sense, but at four it's a bad contract.

Now that Ervin Santana has lowered his contract demands to a long distance call from reality he MIGHT make sense. If I were DD I would offer him 30M/3 OR 25M/2 with a vested option for 15M. If he says no walk away.
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Re: Grantland: For the Birds

PostPost #4 by ofahn » February 17th, 2014, 10:33 am

AlexConway wrote:I've heard/read good arguments for the payroll being around $120 Million, but I can't say for sure and really no one can.

I suggested a payroll of around 110M, primarily because that's what the Nats expect to spend this year and I see our core revenues (tickets, LOCAL TV and radio, licensing fees, national TV) as being about the same. Of course, Angelos is getting most of the MASN money and none of that appears to be spent on the team in ANY capacity.
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Re: Grantland: For the Birds

PostPost #5 by ofahn » February 17th, 2014, 11:09 am

AlexConway wrote:Now just go SIGN SOMEBODY.

I understand the sentiment, but the substance of the message concerns me. Not because I think it's a bad idea; I want the team to add cost effective and/or controllable talent whenever possible. What concerns me is the FO making another bad investment and then being constrained by Angelos from making similar moves in the future because the return on that investment was poor.

It's become clear that PA doesn't understand the first thing about how player costs in baseball really work. Of course it's prudent to do as much due diligence as possible before making an investment in anything, but NO baseball player is a sure thing and prospects have a notoriously high mortality rate. Smart organizations spend what they see as sensible and then evaluate that investment ON THE COMPLETE END RESULT; not the failure of a couple of pieces.

A perfect example is Chen and Wada. We got them BOTH for less than 8M a year. Chen ALONE has been a bargain at that amount, but ownership has tightened the scrutiny on contracts for other pitchers based on the Wada disappointment.

Angelos meddled in the farm system for the same reason. In 1999 we had seven of the first fifty picks because we lost a lot of talent to free agency. The a@@ kissers that Angelos had in the front office were clueless on how to convert those players into ML talent (they passed on Alex Rios, Colby Lewis, Carl Crawford, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Doumit, John Lackey, and Justin Morneau in the first 90 picks among others) and the ONLY one of those picks that panned out was Roberts. The team spent a fair sum of money on those ill fated picks and the return was horrible. Angelos was unwilling to accept that it was HIS placement of incompetent fools in critical positions that was responsible for the failure. Oh no. HE decided that amateur talent was a bad investment and he directed the FO to get "proven" players which, of course, were over paid and faded talents at the end of their careers. Consequently, those investments yielded a poor return and we faded quickly faded into the bottom of the standings.

Angelos' "expertise" (paranoia) put this franchise into a position where it was devoid of talent at the ML AND minor league levels.

As long as PA has ANY input into how the money is spent on this franchise the FO HAS to be VERY careful on what investments it makes or they may not be able to make that kind of investment again.
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