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Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #16 by osforlife » January 10th, 2014, 9:23 pm

Also, trading two very quality prospects and a competitive balance draft pick for a fringe starter is ridiculous and Dan Duquette should be held accountable. Don't make a move just to make a move. The Feldman trade is justifiable. The Bud Norris trade is obviously lopsided, considering Bud Norris is only questionable more valuable then LJ Hoes RIGHT NOW! Acquiring David Lough really tucked away some of the anger of this trade, considering before David Lough there was nothing close to a starting left fielder in the organization. But even in 2014, LJ Hoes could have gotten some meaningful DH at-bats and platoon at-bats, and/or stepped in if somebody got hurt. He'd probably be slated to take over for Nick Markakis in right field after 2014.
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #17 by thezeroes » January 11th, 2014, 9:15 am

The competitive balance pick gives me more angst than does the two players that were traded. The trading of Hoes was from the Forty Man Roster and may very well have been a Waiver Player at some point before now and claimed without any return. With the backlog of players that were Rule 5 Eligible may have been more of a cause for the players moved than the talent returned. Having said that I am willing to allow Bud Norris the time to transition to the AL League East and to see if he can be a rotation candidate.
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #18 by AlexConway » January 11th, 2014, 11:41 am

I think it is revisionist history to say the trade was dumb to do at the time. On July 31st, 2013 the Orioles were 1/2 Game back in the Wild Card race. The Orioles were in a position to make the playoffs. Norris had pitched well thus far in the season, even though regression was likely. While I don't think Norris is a great starter and he didn't help the Orioles, I don't think the Orioles gave up much. Hoes is a 4th OF, Hader is a low-A prospect with a myriad of possible outcomes, and the draft pick was gained through pure luck. I don't love the deal, but I got it then and I still get it now.
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #19 by j.q. higgins » January 13th, 2014, 12:01 pm

fwiw, fangraphs pegs norris as having been worth .8 wins in 11 games, which projects to a pretty solid number over the course of a season. if you ask me who is more productive in 2014 b/w norris and hoes, i'm taking norris. actually, ZIPS is relatively bullish on norris, too, which kind of makes me wonder why bother arroyo, who is similarly weak against lefties and a bit better w/ grounders, but a bit worse w/ Ks.

...and also, oliver and steamer project hoes as worth .8 fWAR for 2014.
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #20 by ofahn » January 14th, 2014, 11:28 am

osforlife wrote:I'm not sure why Matusz and Britton are even being considered for the starting rotation.

I felt the same way about Tillman before the 2012 season and he surprised many of us by finally LISTENING to what he was told and getting his act together. The talent is there with Britton. The question is whether he will decide to remove his cranium from inside his rectal orifice.
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #21 by ofahn » January 14th, 2014, 11:36 am

osforlife wrote:Also, trading two very quality prospects and a competitive balance draft pick for a fringe starter is ridiculous and Dan Duquette should be held accountable. Don't make a move just to make a move.

I won't put this on DD because his track record WHEN HE'S GIVEN A REALISTIC BUDGET is good.

Ownership told him to do what was necessary to make the team LOOK like it might reach the playoffs last year (thus, improving ticket sales) and this DISASTER of a trade was all that he had available within his financial and talent budget. I place the blame for the Norris trade on Peter Angelos for not allowing DD to sell in July so we could build a legitimate playoff team for this year and beyond.
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #22 by ofahn » January 14th, 2014, 11:39 am

thezeroes wrote: The trading of Hoes was from the Forty Man Roster and may very well have been a Waiver Player at some point before now and claimed without any return.

That's very possible, but he was one of the few legitimate prospects we had in our system that should ANY OBA skills and he was an above average defender in a position we knew we would have to fill. I would have held on to him.
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #23 by ofahn » January 14th, 2014, 12:03 pm

AlexConway wrote:I think it is revisionist history to say the trade was dumb to do at the time. On July 31st, 2013 the Orioles were 1/2 Game back in the Wild Card race. The Orioles were in a position to make the playoffs.

I felt this was a bad trade on July 31st and think even less of it now. He is what I posted:

July 31st
It's now being reported that the Orioles will include LH SP Josh Hader and their Competitive Balance Pick for next year. I see this as an overpay.

and
I felt that Hader AND the Comp Pick was an overpay.

What bothered me was giving up Hader AND the Comp Pick. We used our comp pick this year on Josh Hart so there's real value there.

August 1st
I'm sorry; but 2012, as much fun as it was, was NOT a realistic indicator of the talent level of this team. IMO this year offers a much better view of the REAL progress that has been made.

Are we better than .500? Yes. Are we a playoff team? Well, that depends on the level of competition. Is this a team that could go all the way? Not a chance! WAY too many holes in our game.

We made three trades in July. The first two were rentals to make the fans happy and sell tickets. The last one for Norris is the only trade that will help the team next year. Arrieta and Strop were disposable, but Delmonico was a real loss; not because he would have been an impact player in Baltimore, but because he could have helped us sometime in the future land a player that could have helped us for the long term. So, the end result is that we traded three of our top 15 prospects AND our Competitive Balance draft pick next year for Bud Norris. OUCH!

With last night's ugly loss we're on a pace to win 88.5 games and that record is an accurate indicator of the talent on this team. If we finish the year with 88 or 89 wins it will be three or four more than the 85 I predicated before the season began. I saw the holes then and I still see them now.

Davis, Tillman, and Machado have taken steps forward and Hammel and the bullpen have taken big steps backward. A fully stocked farm system might have been able to cover for that, but we don't have one of those. Of our four best RH hitters Jones, Hardy, and Wieters belong on a Saturday afternoon soft ball team where swinging from the heels on every pitch is expected.

We're going to need to make some substantial changes to our lineup this winter if we want to be a WS team in the near future.

August 23rd
FYI - as of August 23rd Hoes has an OPS of .805 in 72 ABs.

Yes, it's a small sample, but it has constantly improved as he's getting playing time. His OBA is only .347, but that's because he's only had two walks. Considering that is was over .400 at AAA with the same batting average I would expect that number to climb.

It really galls me that we traded this guy - EXACTLY the kind of player we need to fix our lineup - along with Josh Hader and a first round draft pick for a #5 SP in order to prop up up a team that hasn't shown itself to be playoff quality all season. WHY? Just to sell some more tickets?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... lj01.shtml
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #24 by AlexConway » January 14th, 2014, 12:47 pm

I'll just chalk this one up to different philosophies. A 1/2 Game out of a playoff spot means your in contention. Were they going to be favorites to win the World Series? No. But, selling off a few prospects from a shallow system to try to make a run in my mind is what an organization that is trying to win does.

The MLB playoffs can be a major crap shoot when you reduce 162 game seasons down to 1, 5, and 7 game series. In mind, if you have the opportunity to go for it, you go for it. I thought those moves at that time made the Major League roster better and I still think that. That's why I'm fine with all the trades they made last year.
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #25 by Seafordeagles » January 14th, 2014, 1:02 pm

AlexConway wrote:A 1/2 Game out of a playoff spot means your in contention.


I thought the Orioles would make the playoffs in 2013 and in fact I thought they had a better team then the 2012 version. You don't SELL when you are that close to the playoffs. It didn't work out. All trades don't work out (see the Bud Norris & Scott Feldman deals). Some trades do (see the Adam Jones trade).
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Re: Bud Norris: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

PostPost #26 by ofahn » January 20th, 2014, 2:10 pm

AlexConway wrote:I'll just chalk this one up to different philosophies. A 1/2 Game out of a playoff spot means your in contention.

In most cases I would agree, but like many others last year I looked at the 25 Man Roster in ST and what we had available in the farm system and recognized the fatal flaws. IMO the ONLY way this team was going to the post season last year was if virtually ALL of the moves during the season worked; just like they had in 2012. The odds were strongly against that and the reality bore that out.

The sad fact is that the current 40 Man Roster does NOT have enough horse power to get deep into the playoffs even if they make the post season. Even if ALL of our core players have career average or career best years we're looking at 85 to 90 wins with the roster as it is now. Even adding a Bronson Arroyo (IMO fair chance) or a Matt Garza (limited chance) we would STILL need ALL of our core players have career average or career best years to get to about 93 wins. That was good enough in 2012, but 2014 will have a better Boston team, an equal Tampa team, and a potentially almost as good NY team. 93 wins MAY not be enough to make third place in our own division.
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