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Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

Conflicted about free agency and the rotation

PostPost #1 by Old Sneakers » October 29th, 2013, 3:11 am

I know this team is going to sign arms. It almost has to if it wants to win 81 games next season. But I am conflicted as to what the right move is...

1-Sign Scott Feldman to a 2 year deal with an option likely costing around $30 million?
2-Try to get a Bartolo Colon (or someone similar) to agree to an incentive laden 1 year deal?
3-Make a more honest push for guys like Joe Saunders (whom should be here anyway) who are older but playing for pay?
4-Save money and try to get 3 replacement type players.
5-Sign one minimal type guys and just live with Kevin Gausman even if he's ghastly as a starter.

I don't want the rotation to include Kevin Gausman in the rotation until he's gotten his third pitch right and learned how to mix and match 2 and 4 seamers. I also would like to see arms added so we aren't just shuffling Britton, Johnson and Gausman back and fourth all year. Furthermore, injuries are always a serious risk.

Even though ticket sales are better than they have been in years and the money is there. I really suspect the team continues what it's been doing looking for deals and steals. I don't like it either. It's hit or complete miss. I personally would prefer spending to keep Feldman or get an aging veteran like Saunders/Colon with hefty incentives for one or two years. If I listed what our likely rotation would be in 2014 (Tillman, Gonzalez, Chen, Norris and Gausman) I would count a #3, #4, #4,#4 and a replacement player. That's not good enough.

For those of you whom scoff at the notion of spending to get any of Feldman, Saunders or Colon. I say consider that you could end up with Gausman, Wright and Rodriguez ruined if they aren't given ample minor league time. You want Gausman to become the next Matusz? Think it over some. Also I'd rather have lackluster play at 2B and LF than substandard SP.

What say you?
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Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #2 by Tucker Blair » October 29th, 2013, 10:59 am

http://orioles-nation.com/2013/10/29/fr ... g-targets/

Alex's take on what the Orioles should do for the rotation
(also merged old sneakers post into this as they are basically the same topic)
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #3 by AlexConway » October 30th, 2013, 8:37 am

As I outline in my article, I think the Orioles should probably sign two free agent starters and put Norris/Gonzalez in the pen. However, I believe they will only sign one and that will probably be Feldman.

I would be very disappointed if they went with any of the other options you outlined. This teams needs quality starters to make a push for the playoffs. As this roster gets more and more expensive to keep together in the coming years, this core will change. Right now they have a decent enough offense to get them there, the pitching needs to be more consistent. Getting to the playoffs is what matters, anything can happen, 5 game and 7 game series are small enough sample sizes where the best team doesn't always win.

You can tell they were counting on Gausman/Bundy to be ready to start this year in the rotation. But, that's not going to happen, maybe later this year, but they need to plug in guys and play them now.

My next article will outline some very low cost possible high upside guys I think the Orioles should look at to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #4 by Old Sneakers » October 30th, 2013, 4:05 pm

Oh I agree true inning eating pitchers are what is needed most. I just question as to whether or not the team will spend to get it. I do not expect Bundy at all next year and simply want Gausman (at least half a season), Wright and Rodriguez in the minors.

This team threw money in the air in the past, making some poor decisions. My question is why not take a little risk from a monetary standpoint and try to resolve a true team need for two seasons.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #5 by thezeroes » October 31st, 2013, 9:30 pm

If you sign two free agent pitchers and then also retain the current players under contract and team control you would end up with a staff full of players that would need to be DFA"d to bring up any of the young arms when they are available.

Dylan Bundy - Has Options and will not be available until at least August.
Miguel Gonzalez - Has options
Kevin Gausman - Has Options
T J McFarland - Has options
Josh Stinson - Has options

Steve Johnson - Out of options
Zach Britton - Out of options
Tommy Hunter - Out of options
Troy Patton - Out of options
Brian Matusz - Out of options
Jim Johnson - Out of options
Bud Norris - Out of options
Mike Belifiore - Out of Options
Chris Tillman - Out of options
Darren O'Day - Out of Options
Wi-Yen Chen - Has to agree to Options
11 Pitchers without Options and add in your two free agent signings and you can see that the pitching staff will be hamstrung as far as having moving parts to and from the MLB and the MiLB teams.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #6 by Old Sneakers » November 1st, 2013, 3:41 am

AlexConway wrote:As I outline in my article, I think the Orioles should probably sign two free agent starters and put Norris/Gonzalez in the pen. However, I believe they will only sign one and that will probably be Feldman.


I agree, it's one SP that gets signed. Which one is anyone's guess. I do think we sort of owe Gonzalez and perhaps Norris the starting nod unless they prove ineffective.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #7 by osforlife » November 1st, 2013, 2:44 pm

1. Bud Norris will be in the rotation. He's not a exciting or very good, but you don't trade LJ Hoes, Josh Hader, and a compensation pick for a reliever. The Orioles are a little hampered for financial reasons, so finding somebody better could be tricky.

2. Gonzalez is a lock. The peripherals don't like him, but until he proves them right, he's going to continue to pitch for the Baltimore Orioles. He's cheap too.

3. Dylan Bundy should not be counted on next year even late in the season. He should spend what little healthy time he has in the minors. He may begin 2015 in the major league rotation. I wonder how his older brother is doing.?

4. I think Steve Johnson will be a bullpen piece for the Orioles next year. If he had stayed healthy, I bet he would have provided an impact this year. He'll never be a solid starter, but an effective relief pitcher is very realistic IMO. Zach Britton and Mike Bielfore can be DFA'd for all I care.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #8 by AlexConway » November 2nd, 2013, 3:02 pm

Yeah, Gonzalez's performance thus far dictates that he should be in the rotation, I'd agree with that. I'm not a huge fan of peripheral pitching stats (i.e. FIP, xFIP) I think they are too reductive to the pitching process and there are too many consistent outliers for me to trust it.

Also, Norris just scares me with his splits, but you're also right that you don't give up that much to turn him into a bullpen piece, I just think he's a slightly better Tommy Hunter as a starting pitcher, so maybe he plays up in the bullpen as Hunter does.

As far as the pitching staff being Hamstrung, yeah I get that and that will also probably be the Orioles reason for not signing two guys, but I just don't really like any of those names you listed for opening day starting rotation. Again, if I were running the team I'd try and sign two SPs and work it out via trades/cuts. But, I don't think the Orioles will.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #9 by Tucker Blair » November 6th, 2013, 8:11 am

Alex with his next piece on free agent starting pitching options:

http://orioles-nation.com/2013/11/06/mo ... -pitching/
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #10 by ofahn » January 2nd, 2014, 1:00 pm

osforlife wrote:Bud Norris will be in the rotation. He's not a exciting or very good, but you don't trade LJ Hoes, Josh Hader, and a compensation pick for a reliever.

I considered this trade a HORRIBLE mistake when it was made and I think LESS of it now.

IMO Norris is not even a #5 SP on a playoff contender so I would look for a spot for him in the BP. Of course, that would require us to sign two legitimate SPs. Will Angelos give them the 20M out of the 27M additional TV revenue he's getting this year to do that?
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #11 by LA Detective » January 2nd, 2014, 8:41 pm

ofahn wrote:IMO Norris is not even a #5 SP on a playoff contender

To me he would have to come up with a more than serviceable off-speed pitch and improved FB control to be a good starter. 50-50 chance of this is my guess.

I would like to see Tanaka but that is doubtful.

I would like AJ Burnett. He is using his sinker more and that would play well with our IF Defense. He isn't really that old.
I still wonder about Hammel. If he is healthy I think he could resort to the pitcher he was in the first half of 2012.

I would be fine with both of these. I think it would help us in innings and for depth.

Jimenez intrigues me as he was great the 2nd half of last year and was once dominant and is young, but why isn't Cleveland trying to sign him? If he really is that pitcher he was the 2nd half of last year I would think they would try to lock him up.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #12 by Tucker Blair » January 2nd, 2014, 9:17 pm

Kevin Ebert wrote about A.J. Burnett over at Camden Chat today: http://www.camdenchat.com/2014/1/2/5253 ... -j-burnett
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #13 by Old Sneakers » January 3rd, 2014, 8:13 am

Whatever the team does (if anything) they are going to need some real innings out of that 5th starter. I pray Gausman and Wright are left in Norfolk until ready. From an IP standpoint alone Burnett would fit that nicely.

My biggest gripe from that Camden Chat article is the picture shown. Why do they always use a pic where the guy's arm looks as if it's about to snap?
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #14 by ofahn » January 3rd, 2014, 10:51 am

TuckerBlair89 wrote:Kevin Ebert wrote about A.J. Burnett over at Camden Chat today: http://www.camdenchat.com/2014/1/2/5253 ... -j-burnett

I suggested in January 2012 that we should try to get him from the Yankees in a post titled Should The Orioles Trade For A J Burnett? viewtopic.php?f=1&t=700&hilit=+Burnett

Let's just say that my idea was not received well (read the thread), but he pitched well in Pittsburgh as I predicted he would. In fact, I wonder if we could have gotten by the Yankees in 2012 if we would have had him in our rotation.

I would definitely risk a one year contract on him. Of course, the real question is whether PA will authorize the money. After all, he might have the heart break of psoriasis and flunk his medicals.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #15 by osforlife » January 3rd, 2014, 12:57 pm

The Orioles HAVE to acquire at least one starter. The season is over the moment the Orioles walk into Spring Training with a starting five of Chris Tillman, Wei Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris, and Kevin Gausman. Not only is that a bad starting five, but the depth behind that is atrocious. The first three of that bunch of decent middle of the rotation starters, but they would have to stay completely healthy, 31 starts each. Bud Norris is a fringe major league starter and Gausman has little minor league experience. The depth behind that includes Zach Britton, Steve Johnson, Brian Matusz, T.J. McFarland, Josh Stinson and Liam Hendriks. Awful. All of those pitchers are(should be) relievers. Even with a major league acquisition, they would have to avoid the disabled list. This was Baltimore's starting pitchers outside of the top three;

Bud Norris - 4.69 ERA in nine starts.
Jason Hammel - 5.14 ERA in 23 starts.
Zach Britton - 5.45 ERA in seven starts.
Freddy Garcia - 5.88 ERA in 10 starts.
Jake Arrieta - 7.23 ERA in five starts.
Kevin Gausman - 7.66 ERA in five starts.
Jair Jurrjens - 7.20 ERA in one start.
Josh Stinson - 7.94 ERA in one start.
T.J. McFarland - 10.12 ERA in one start.
Steve Johnson - 13.50 ERA in one start.

Dear management, do the right thing and sign a pitcher. It doesn't have to be Tanaka, although signing him would sure set things right with the fan-base. Ubaldo Jiminez and Ervin Santana are attached to draft pick compensation, so I get it if you guys don't sign them. There's no reason to not use that money saved on the TV deal, and the Jim Johnson trade to sign one of Matt Garza, Bronson Arroyo, or AJ Burnett, AND Chris Capuano.
1. Chris Tillman
2. Wei Yin Chen
3. Miguel Gonzalez
4. Matt Garza/Bronson Arroyo/AJ Burnett
5. Bud Norris
*6. Chris Capuano
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