ONE Week To Pitchers And Catchers Report. Who's Excited?

[thezeroes]

Breaking the Four runs or less down into those dreaded One Run Games.
The Orioles had 10 shutouts in 2012. Of those ten shutouts, two were of the one run variety with the score of 1 to 0.

The Orioles played in 21 games in which the pitching staff gave up one run and they were victorious in all of them. Of those 21 Games, 7 were won with the score being 2 to 1. Of those 2 to 1 games won by the Orioles one was extra innings. The Orioles in 2012 never lost a game with the pitching staff giving up just one run.

The Orioles in 2012 played in 25 games that the pitching staff gave up two runs. They were victorious in 22 of those games. Of those 25 games, 8 were of the one run variety. The Orioles lost two by the score of 1 to 2. They won 6 one run games with the score of 3 to 2. Of those 3 to 2 victories two were extra innings.

For the Orioles in 2012, they played in 20 games where the pitching gave up only 3 runs. They won 15 of those games while losing 5 games. Six of the 15 wins while giving up just three runs were of the one run variety by the score of 4 to 3 and one was in extra innings. One of the 5 loses was by the score of 2 to 3.
The Orioles pitching had 19 games where they were tagged for 4 runs. Of those 19 games they won 10 and lost 9. Of the 10 wins only 4 were by one run at the score of 5 to 4 and one of them was extra innings. On the loss side 3 of the games were one run with the score of 3 to 4.

The above was to establish that the Orioles were 29 and 9 in their 38 One Run Games and it is being reported that this was due to luck. I contend it was due to a better bullpen and a Manager that knows when his starters are done for the day.
Breakdown of the one run Games by Score
Those Won
1 to 0 = 2
2 to 1 = 7
3 to 2 = 6
4 to 3 = 6
5 to 4 = 4
6 to 5 = 2
7 to 6 = 0
8 to 7 = 1
9 to 8 = 1
9 plus = 0
Those Lost
0 to 1 =0
1 to 2 =2
2 to 3 =1
3 to 4 =3
4 to 5 = 1
5 to 6 = 1
6 to 7 = 0
7 to 8 = 0
8 to 9 = 1
9 plus = 0
With this, you can plainly see that most of these one run games were within the aforementioned 4 runs or less given up by the pitching staff. They are not considered luck but a skill level reached under the current manager and his staff. IMO

[steve]

It's a matter of finances. They aren't going to pay what it would cost their broadcast crew to travel.

Look at the Mets & Yankees they Televise every home game and when Yankees play the Sox they televise them both at home and road.

[ofahn]

Look at the Mets & Yankees they Televise every home game and when Yankees play the Sox they televise them both at home and road.

OK, that's true, but how is it related to the issue at hand?

[steve]

OK, that's true, but how is it related to the issue at hand?

Cause only 6 games? Comon,,We fans wanna see more spring games on MASN

[osforlife]

Words can't explain how ready I am for baseball. There is an infinite amount of storylines I could spew out that I look forward to seeing. I just hope 2013 is as fun to watch as the 2012 season was. I wasn't THAT upset when the O's were knocked out, as they SHATTERED my expectations. But, I won't lie, I did shed ONE tear about 20 minutes after Game 5. At that moment I realized how proud I was to be a fan of the Orioles. 14 years of my life, 14 losing seasons; I couldn't help but smile ear to ear when I saw the crowds in Baltimore for Game 1 and Game 2. But, to be honest, the playoffs were just all one blur to me. It went by too fast. I remember the wildcard game clearly, but the Yankees series seems all one big flash. All the money I earn this summer will go to taking my family to an Orioles playoff game. We usually go to about 3 regular season games, but if it means not attending those to attend a playoff game, I'm all for it. That being said, I'm predicting we finish a tad above .500. But everybody predicted we'd be in the cellar last year so anything can happen. GO ORIOLES!

[docjj]

Not me. I don't think this team has done anything to improve itself. I look for regression to the mean in terms of statistics which means poorer record in 1 run games and extra inning games. We lack a true leadoff guy, middle of the order bat, top of the rotation ace. I see our competitors in Tampa Bay and Toronto have upgraded. Boston was able to dig itself out of crippling contracts thanks to the total morons in Los Angeles. The only good thing is I think the Yankees will start to slide...- this will be fun to see if it happens...

[A_K]

Not me. I don't think this team has done anything to improve itself. I look for regression to the mean in terms of statistics which means poorer record in 1 run games and extra inning games. We lack a true leadoff guy, middle of the order bat, top of the rotation ace. I see our competitors in Tampa Bay and Toronto have upgraded. Boston was able to dig itself out of crippling contracts thanks to the total morons in Los Angeles. The only good thing is I think the Yankees will start to slide...- this will be fun to see if it happens...

I agree with all of these observations. But why would that prohibit you from being excited about the season? You'll still get the pleasure of watching the team you like playing the sport you love every day for the better part of six months, no?

[thezeroes]

Not me. I don't think this team has done anything to improve itself. I look for regression to the mean in terms of statistics which means poorer record in 1 run games and extra inning games. We lack a true leadoff guy, middle of the order bat, top of the rotation ace. I see our competitors in Tampa Bay and Toronto have upgraded. Boston was able to dig itself out of crippling contracts thanks to the total morons in Los Angeles. The only good thing is I think the Yankees will start to slide...- this will be fun to see if it happens...

I had explained in the easiest possible way with two post in this topic that the ONE RUN GAMES were NOT a product of luck but of a developed skill level within the ball club and the management team on the field. You seem to dismiss this premise out of hand without any explanation and I need to ask why.
Winning one run games that fell into the four runs or less allowed by the pitching staff is NOT luck but a skill set that was acquired throughout the 2012 campaign and fortified through the past off season. I need proof that this is not the case and not some quote from a talking head at a sports outlet that wants an easy way out from having to explain their complete miss on both the Orioles and A's climb to the top.
I will say that I am not calling you out on this, but tire of this misleading premise and all that use it.

[A_K]

I had explained in the easiest possible way with two post in this topic that the ONE RUN GAMES were NOT a product of luck but of a developed skill level within the ball club and the management team on the field. You seem to dismiss this premise out of hand without any explanation and I need to ask why.

Because it's been well established throughout the history of baseball that this "demonstrable skill" doesn't carry over from one season to the next, meaning it is not purely a demonstrable skill.

Optimal bullpen usage-- at which Buck Showalter is demonstrably among the best managers in baseball-- can give you a slightly elevated chance of winning close contests and extra inning games. It is statistically defensible therefore to claim the Orioles have an advantage in close games based on a team skill. It is, however, impossible to claim that the Orioles extreme good fortune in close contests last season didn't include a hefty dose of luck on top of a small portion of skill.

[ofahn]

It is statistically defensible therefore to claim the Orioles have an advantage in close games based on a team skill. It is, however, impossible to claim that the Orioles extreme good fortune in close contests last season didn't include a hefty dose of luck on top of a small portion of skill.

...and a valid argument that the Orioles' extreme BAD fortune in key injuries cost us four or five games in the win column. IMO this is a winning team that will probably be better than the opposition between 85 and 95 times this season.

[thezeroes]

...and a valid argument that the Orioles' extreme BAD fortune in key injuries cost us four or five games in the win column. IMO this is a winning team that will probably be better than the opposition between 85 and 95 times this season.

May I also add the number of games that were lost and won by the one run differential that would not have been placed in that category because of errors and unearned runs. Luck is made in my opinion, not some gift that is bestowed by a higher power. If a person thinks that something is unquantifiable and then attributes it to luck is simply overlooking the premise that this individual/team placed themselves within the conditions to "Garner this Luck".

[A_K]

...and a valid argument that the Orioles' extreme BAD fortune in key injuries cost us four or five games in the win column. IMO this is a winning team that will probably be better than the opposition between 85 and 95 times this season.

There is no evidence that the Orioles experienced bad fortune in key injuries last season. Just the opposite, in fact: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/01 ... ck-by.html

[A_K]

Luck is an observable, recordable aspect of life on earth. It is, in fact, belief that luck is purely "where preparation meets opportunity" that requires one to put their faith into a vague notion that cannot be proven through observation.

[LA Detective]

I believe there were 3 reasons we were in and also won so many close games:

1. Our Line up and Pitching staff, especially the first half of the year was inconsistant and didn't separate us from opposing teams enough. Thats what put us in so many close and extra inning games

2. The biggest reason we won those games was our bullpen. At times it was like we were batting 12 times and the opponent was batting 10 or 11. They really shut teams down and gave us a huge advantage

3. I believe Buck is outstanding at keeping a team focused the entire game. That gave us an edge but made it look like a luck factor.

Things did bounce our way at times last year. Especially the first half when we really weren't that good. I judge our team on what we did from July 31 on, 39-20..Best record in the majors. Thats when we plugged holes and became better. We were a solid team. Sure some things went right like Gonzo, Tilman and a couple other ptichers stepped up but alot went wrong during this stretch too. Our best hittler missed half of that run, Our ACE muissed almost all of it, Chen and Strop tired, Patton went down and no one went nuts with the bat. Without looking I don't think we had a regular bat .300 the 2nd half except Markakis. In fact I dont thiink anyone else was over .280 that stretch.

Bottom Line is I think there are alot of reasons we will be closer to that 2nd half club. Most certainly we are in a better spot than we were the start of last year. JJ wont save 51 again and we might not have as good a 1 run record but I bet we don't lead the league in innings played again either and we won't be in as many one run games, we wont need to be.

[LA Detective]

What I am most excited about watching in ST:

1. Can CDavis play a solid 1b

2. Is Reimold 100% healthy. If so I would really like to see him become the everyday DH

3. The Starting Pitching battle. I think we all agree that Gonzo and Tilman would have to have a poor ST to lose their spot but I can't wait for the battle b/t the rest. Is Britton 100% strong and controlling his fb? What Jake A will show up? Can Matusz show that he can take his bullpen focus into the starters roll and throw that low moving fb he showed late last year? Will SJohnon pick up where he left off and prove he is no fluke and belongs as much as the rest? Is JairJ back to being healthy and regained his velocity? Will Bundy show he is better than all of them, right now?

4. Brian Roberts..I just think there is very little chance he returns to being a top of the order, solid 2b..But I will be rooting for him. I hoping to be very wrong.

5. Is JasonH knee problems only a issue from the past? If so, please work on that extension before he has a big season.

What AJ, Markakis, Hardy, etc does doesn't matter. Just come out of ST healthy. There will a few other things to observe but these are what I am going to be looking at the box scores for and any comments written about.