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How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #46 by A_K » March 29th, 2013, 6:25 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
Lot of lobbying from you recently for Roberts demise. It's like you want it to happen. I hope he kicks some serious butt.


This one was mostly a tongue-in-cheek reference to what I'd been saying all spring. I of course hope he does really well and ends up batting lead off within a few weeks.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #47 by ofahn » March 29th, 2013, 6:54 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:populated with many Orioles fans ready to go ballistic after an off season of little to no moves made.


I don't mean to be difficult, but (1) what REASONABLE moves could we have made and; (2) this off season was just about a mirror image of last season and THAT turned out pretty well.

I may be in the minority but I'm GLAD we didn't wreck the future of the franchise for a team that isn't (and wouldn't have been) championship caliber with almost ANY ill advised move we might have made.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #48 by ofahn » March 29th, 2013, 6:56 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:You can just file my lineup into the "Poo Poo Pile"


Upon further review I have decided THAT is the line of the day and deserves a Rep Point.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #49 by ofahn » March 29th, 2013, 6:58 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:Truthfully, I do not believe we are done rebuilding yet


Which, of course, explains WHY we didn't sign any franchise wrecking "free" agents.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #50 by A_K » March 29th, 2013, 7:11 pm

ofahn wrote:
I don't mean to be difficult, but (1) what REASONABLE moves could we have made and


The team could have afforded the following players given its current payroll situation, and none of the signings would have restricted the team in the short- or long-term future in any way. Also, all of these signings would have represented upgrades:

Kelly Johnson, Jeff Keppinger, Brandon McCarthy, Cody Ross, Shaun Marcum, Ryan Dempster, Mike Napoli, Melky Cabrera, Adam Laroche, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher and Hiroki Kuroda.

It's true that some or all of those players wouldn't have been interested in coming to Baltimore, or would have demanded more money. It's also true that none of those players are so good that we should bitch and moan about failing to acquire them.

But there are two simply false narratives that need to be dispelled. 1) That the Orioles had no reasonable option to upgrade the team based on what was available this season. And 2) That the only types of free agent additions that exist are those that are hugely expensive and will hamstring a team for the foreseeable future.

It's entirely possible to make marginal improvements through short-term contracts that don't include vast sums of guaranteed money. If you don't want to make those moves or don't think the team is very good so shouldn't focus on marginal improvements, say so. But it's simply wrong to act like they were without options, or that the options they had were prohibitively expensive.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #51 by OriolesRedskins28 » March 29th, 2013, 7:25 pm

ofahn wrote:I'm GLAD we didn't wreck the future of the franchise


Preach!

A_K wrote:Kelly Johnson, Jeff Keppinger, Brandon McCarthy, Cody Ross, Shaun Marcum, Ryan Dempster, Mike Napoli, Melky Cabrera, Adam Laroche, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher and Hiroki Kuroda.


I don't think any of those players would have been anything but marginal upgrades over what the O's have now and would not have been worth the price (even though the price wouldn't necessarily have been prohibitive). Focus the money on extending their own players like Wieters and save up for a player they really like in the coming years.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #52 by LA Detective » March 29th, 2013, 7:39 pm

I agree...Maybe McCarthy if healthy but I like our LF situation, 1b and 2b with BR, Ryan F and dont be suprised if we Schoop later...I like our team and I like what came out of spring training (even though were a lil banged up)...That being said I think it is probable we make a good size deal mid summer...I dont know for what position. Hopefully DH or a front line starter and not because one of our main guys gets injured and we need a replacement.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #53 by Old Sneakers » March 29th, 2013, 8:25 pm

A_K and ofahn (Or anyone else following)

To date Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton have been nothing short of a disappointment. I honestly thought that by now two of them would have been packaged in a trade for positional talent. I'm not suggesting someone in MLB top 50 prospects or an Allstar. However, certainly a team with need would have parted ways with a reasonably safe bet to one day become a regular everyday starter. Someone that played LF, RF, 2B or C. Probably someone needing another two years in the minors before becoming a finished product. Likely a decent minor league reliever as well.

With Arrieta, I keep going back and fourth on. He should be a 200 IP kinda guy right now. But it has not happened. With Matusz and Britton, I do not know if they will ever become serviceable starters for more that three turns through any rotation. I really would like to have seen them moved.

I do think we should have made a stronger push to resign Joe Saunders earlier last off season. Instead, he waited and got a sweeter deal. I will miss him. He was a team strength down the stretch last year.

As for top dollar free agents. Honestly I was against that from the get go as I will be at the end of this season. I simply do not believe we are in a position of sustainable success.

Think we can come close to our record with extra inning games? I don't. Think we can come close to duplicating our record with 1 run games? I don't. As much as I like Jim Johnson, he too is going to be hard pressed to have as good a season. No, I am not counting saves either.

I'm not even complaining about our situation at 1B this year. I like Chris Davis as many of you do. Alexi Casilla may be a fine utility infielder, but if Brian Roberts gets hit with injury or ineffectiveness I think we have a rough go there. Schoop still needs time and I do not want another prospect rushed as was with Matusz and Tillman.

Likely by the end of next season Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausmann will be ready to take their place in the rotation. Not without growing pains. However unlike Matusz and Britton, both of them have velocity. I think that wave of "The Cavalry" will fair better with this manager and front office than the previous. I too am hoping Schoop is going to stick at 2B and resolve a huge team issue long term. He simply isn't ready yet. We do not know if Machado is a SS or confined to 3B the remainder of his career. Im not sure our situation at LF is anything more than fielding replacement players.

In short, there are too many holes to feel good about any sustainable success in my eyes.

Anyway please forgive the book.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #54 by thezeroes » March 29th, 2013, 8:34 pm

I think that there are several reasons for Brian Roberts batting in the Nine Hole.

First, I think that his recovery from the many problems of the past three years is better served while being in a less stressful part of the order.

Second, I think that Buck would like to have someone that will be a future leadoff hitter for this ball club start out in that position as I do not believe that Brian will be an option after this year and if he is re-signed it will be with the understanding that it will be in a reduced capacity.

Third, If Brian does re-injure himself for what ever reason or is unproductive it would be easier to replace your eight/nine place hitter than your leadoff hitter.

Fourth, I believe that Buck would like to let the veterans know that this is his lineup and nothing is preordained.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #55 by ofahn » April 2nd, 2013, 8:26 am

thezeroes wrote:If Brian does re-injure himself for what ever reason or is unproductive it would be easier to replace your eight/nine place hitter than your leadoff hitter.


I was thinking EXACTLY the same thing. POINTS!
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #56 by ofahn » April 2nd, 2013, 8:46 am

A_K wrote:The team could have afforded the following players given its current payroll situation, and none of the signings would have restricted the team in the short- or long-term future in any way. Also, all of these signings would have represented upgrades:


A_K wrote:Kelly Johnson


He wouldn't have signed here IF he thought that Brian Roberts was going to be the regular 2B, and Roberts and the team were talking that way at the time.

A_K wrote:Jeff Keppinger


Decent bat, shaky glove. Pass

A_K wrote:Brandon McCarthy


A LOT of money for a #3 (at best) SP, and we have better than him now. ONE year at the same annual salary might have been worth the risk, but why sign him for two years with what we have coming?

A_K wrote:Cody Ross


Mr. Inconsistent. I think we did better in McLouth.

A_K wrote:Shaun Marcum


ALWAYS an injury risk and he's starting the year on the DL.

A_K wrote:Ryan Dempster


Again, a two year commitment for a one year need.

A_K wrote:Mike Napoli


I WOULD have signed him for the same 5M contract, but it started at 3/39M. Pass.

A_K wrote:Melky Cabrera


MAYBE worth a one year risk, but IMO not two years.

A_K wrote:Adam Laroche


I advocated signing him.

A_K wrote:Angel Pagan


Maybe worth a one year risk. IMO signing him for fours years constituted a systemic breakdown of the mental health system.

A_K wrote:Nick Swisher


Wasn't worth the loss of a draft pick for the one year deal I thought he was worth.

A_K wrote:Hiroki Kuroda


It was the Yankees or back to Japan.

A_K wrote:It's true that some or all of those players wouldn't have been interested in coming to Baltimore, or would have demanded more money.


I can see you were realistic about some of these players, but it think you value some of the others differently than I do.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #57 by ofahn » April 2nd, 2013, 8:59 am

A_K wrote:But there are two simply false narratives that need to be dispelled. 1) That the Orioles had no reasonable option to upgrade the team based on what was available this season. And 2) That the only types of free agent additions that exist are those that are hugely expensive and will hamstring a team for the foreseeable future.

It's entirely possible to make marginal improvements through short-term contracts that don't include vast sums of guaranteed money. If you don't want to make those moves or don't think the team is very good so shouldn't focus on marginal improvements, say so. But it's simply wrong to act like they were without options, or that the options they had were prohibitively expensive.


Your POV is based on reasonable logic, BUT I'd like to raise two points.

First, I didn't see the type of players that we could have signed "to make marginal improvements through short-term contracts that don't include vast sums of guaranteed money" this winter. Maybe we just value certain players differently.

Second, I just think the FO wanted to be able to evaluate what they had in certain players before they dramatically changed the roster. Maybe DD sees this year the same way I do - We COULD win the division, BUT we're not a champio9nship caliber team yet. If the players prove him and me wrong by mid July then I could see a significant trade happening.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #58 by ofahn » April 2nd, 2013, 9:04 am

Old Sneakers wrote:To date Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton have been nothing short of a disappointment. I honestly thought that by now two of them would have been packaged in a trade for positional talent.


I believe it was worth the gamble to try to improve their trade value before we move them. I mean, they clearly aren't worth that much to other teams right now.

I would like to see Arrietta get off to a good start so he becomes attractive to another team if we need to add an important long term piece this summer. I still think Britton becomes a solid #3 ML SP, and if Matusz's ceiling is as a lock down late reliever there COULD be worse results for a #4 draft pick.

My guess is that at least one and probably two of these guys will not be on the team next spring.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #59 by ofahn » April 2nd, 2013, 9:07 am

Old Sneakers wrote: I too am hoping Schoop is going to stick at 2B and resolve a huge team issue long term. He simply isn't ready yet.


At the end of last season I would have agreed with that statement; however, his play in the WBC was EXCITING. This guy has made big improvements over the winter and, considering how he has stepped up in both the playoffs and WBC, he looks like a big game player. I think his bat will be ML ready next year. The only question is his glove.
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Re: How Does The Line-Up Shake Out?

PostPost #60 by osforlife » April 2nd, 2013, 11:00 am

Almost every single free agent has either some deficiency, will get paid at least one more year than should, or get overpaid. But, that isn't an excuse for not signing any reasonable major league talent. If a GM hasn't come to the fact that all free agents have at least on of these, then all signings will be on the minor league side. Basically, the Orioles could have used a viable back-up player at second, a left fielder, and one starting pitcher. To fill these voids, we claimed Alexi Casilla, signed Nate McLouth, and signed a starting pitcher. A one year deal would have been preferable for each, but multi years deals shouldn't be out of the question. Minor leaguers are no sure thing. Waves are potent stars in the making have hurt us before (Cabrera, Liz, Loewen; even Britton, Arrieta, Matusz). Who's to say Bundy, Gausman etc won't deceive us again? Plus, if we have an abundance of starters at the major league level, that will be good as our arms will receive more time in the minors developing.
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