Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

[ofahn]

I would rather deal two of the Calvary and maybe an X.Avery or Hoes.

Detroit wouldn't have an interest in that because they're playing to win now.

[Old Sneakers]

Food for thought...

The Orioles are notoriously bad at attracting free agents of value. JJ Hardy would be the best of any in years. Though this team will not be built through free agency. Why would you part with a guy that is everything you could want (save perhaps his age) at his position?

That quote from Buck Showalter "What word is above "overwhelmed?" tells you all you really need to know. This isn't suggesting that Roch Kubatko's article was false. More likely both teams just feeling each other out.

This isn't going to happen. Not now and not for what members here are proposing. Also to get Porcello it's likely two young arms and Jim Johnson. Why? Because of Porcello's age and innings he's averaged. I would not give up 3 for 1. I wouldn't give up Hardy.

[birdwatcher55]

I think there are some intelligent people on this board but I don't understand the mindset of those who would (a) want to break up the best leftside infield in the AL (if not MLB) and (b) deal away a 50 save reliever and a big reason we saw the post season last year for the first time in 14 years. I can see no intelligent reasoning whatsoever, especially when you consider we would be getting back a (a) journeyman SS not on par with Hardy; (b) and overworked young arm that has been up and down in his career; and (c) a marginal prospect at best for third base. What am I missing here????

[ofahn]

What am I missing here???

Apparently, lots.

Just because YOU don't see the value in a transaction does not mean that others don't. You have given me the impression that you want to "win now" regardless of how realistic that approach was or whether it would wreck the future of the franchise. That's your right as a fan, but don't expect the rest of us to buy tickets on that train wreck so that you won't be lonely.

IMO this trade scenario has morphed into Jim Johnson for Porcello. I would like to see it expand by adding Arrieta from us and Castellanos from them. Jim Johnson is replaceable; and Porcello could be, with the right tutelage, a ground ball machine. Just what we could use in Camden Yards in front of a plus defense.

The nice thing is that WE have the leverage here and can make the Tigers meet our price.

[Seafordeagles]

The only way this trade or a similar trade will happen is if the Orioles are out of it at the trade deadline. Buck likes Jim Johnson a awful lot. He also likes Hardy just as much for his great defense and his power numbers.

I'm sure Dan would never do this deal if Buck is not on board. Buck has a lot of pull in the decision making.

[ofahn]

I'm sure Dan would never do this deal if Buck is not on board. Buck has a lot of pull in the decision making.

Buck is now signed through 2018. His decision making will almost certainly reflect that. Adding Porcello (and MAYBE) Castellanos for replaceable parts would HAVE to entice him.

[A_K]

What am I missing here????

1. The actual value of a save.
2. The importance of maximizing Machado's value by moving him to SS.
3. The level of success Porcello has experienced in his career.
4. The amount of difference a good infield can make for a ground-ball pitcher.

[Seafordeagles]

1. The actual value of a save.
2. The importance of maximizing Machado's value by moving him to SS.
3. The level of success Porcello has experienced in his career.
4. The amount of difference a good infield can make for a ground-ball pitcher.

In response to #2 his maximized value to the Orioles "right now" is to play 3rd base.

In response to #4 you just made the defense worse by trading Hardy and replacing him with Manny. Now you have a hole at 3rd base. If you get Castellanos he has been moved to the outfield in Detroit. If you put him at 3rd you create a defensive liability there also.

[ofahn]

If you get Castellanos he has been moved to the outfield in Detroit. If you put him at 3rd you create a defensive liability there also.

He was moved because he was blocked at 3B by Cabrera, not because of any defensive shortcomings.

[Seafordeagles]

He was moved because he was blocked at 3B by Cabrera, not because of any defensive shortcomings.

I'm sure he would be fine after some time there but I was responding to A_K's referral about a strong defense for a ground ball pitcher. The orioles defense would not be as good with Castellanos at 3rd and Manny at short "right now". JJ Hardy is a gold glove shortstop and is very, very good.

[ofahn]

I'm sure he would be fine after some time there but I was responding to A_K's referral about a strong defense for a ground ball pitcher. The orioles defense would not be as good with Castellanos at 3rd and Manny at short "right now". JJ Hardy is a gold glove shortstop and is very, very good.

You may have missed it, but the discussion has moved from including Hardy in the trade to NOT including hardy in the trade.

[Seafordeagles]

You may have missed it, but the discussion has moved from including Hardy in the trade to NOT including hardy in the trade.

Then you didn't look at #2 in his 4 points.

[A_K]

In response to #2 his maximized value to the Orioles "right now" is to play 3rd base.

In response to #4 you just made the defense worse by trading Hardy and replacing him with Manny. Now you have a hole at 3rd base. If you get Castellanos he has been moved to the outfield in Detroit. If you put him at 3rd you create a defensive liability there also.

The long-term benefit of maximizing Machado's value is worth the short term trade off at SS this season.

Peralta would be an acceptable fill in at 3B for this season. He's provided positive defensive value at SS in three of the last four seasons. It's reasonable to expect his defensive performance at 3B to be even better. And Peralta has been a more productive hitter than Hardy in each of the last two seasons, while they're projected to be basically identical hitters this coming season, according to ZIPS.

The net result would be essentially the same offensive production from the left side of our infield, along with a small short-term decrease in defensive ability, while taking advantage of an opportunity to get the most from Machado, who is perhaps the team's most valuable asset.

And while a strong defensive infield is part of the reason for optimism for Porcello, it's worth remembering that the small downgrade in defensive ability mentioned above is relative to our current defensive alignment. Porcello would still be pitching in front of an improved defensive infield (with Machado at SS and Peralta at 3B), over what he has had over the course of his Detroit career. (And even while pitching in front of Detroit's poor defense, he's still been very productive).

If Castellanos is really included (I'd be very surprised if that were true), then it'd truly be a slam dunk.

The Tigers would be much more likely to turn down the (entirely hypothetical) trade than the Orioles would be.

[A_K]

You may have missed it, but the discussion has moved from including Hardy in the trade to NOT including hardy in the trade.

Then you didn't look at #2 in his 4 points.

I'd be perfectly happy with a simple Johnson for Porcello swap. In that case, the things people are missing are:

1. The actual value of a save
2. How good Porcello has been
3. How important a defensive infield is to a groundball pitcher
4. The difference in value between 200 innings pitched and 60 innings pitched
5. The difference in value between a 29 year old pitcher and a 23 year old pitcher

[Seafordeagles]

The long-term benefit of maximizing Machado's value is worth the short term trade off at SS this season.

Peralta would be an acceptable fill in at 3B for this season. He's provided positive value at SS in three of the last four seasons. His defensive performance at 3B would be even better. AND Peralta has been a more productive hitter than Hardy in each of the last two seasons and they're projected to be basically identical hitters this coming season, according to ZIPS.

The net result would be essentially the same offensive production from the left side of our infield, along with a small short-term decrease in defensive ability in favor of an opportunity to get the most from Machado, who is perhaps the team's most valuable asset.

And while a strong defensive infield is part of the reason for optimism for Porcello, it's worth remembering that the small downgrade in defensive ability is relative to our current defensive alignment. Porcello would nonetheless be pitching in front of a better defensive infield (with Machado at SS and Peralta at 3B), than he has over the course of his Detroit career. (And even while pitching in front of Detroit's poor defense, he's still be very productive).

If Castellanos is really included (I'd be very surprised if that were true), then it'd truly be a slam dunk.

The Tigers would be much more likely to turn down the (entirely hypothetical) trade than the Orioles would be.

Let's see Peralta or JJ. I've made up my mind no matter what zips thinks. Please enough with the zips stuff. I can't look into the future and either can a computer program.